All right, round the bend, here comes the defense. I like the advance stats for defensive lines a little better so may weight them more than for the offensive line (even though they are the same stats just in reverse). I don't know if that is right but it feels right to me. Anyways...
14. Rutgers: Mike Tverdov, Julius Turner, Michael Dwumfour, Jaohne Duggan
You know I tried slip someone else into last place, mostly because I feel bad for Rutgers. And there is some reason for a bit of hope here. Last year, Rutgers was real bad. They were last against the run both by normal stats and advanced stats. Because they couldn't stop the run, they could rarely get teams in passing downs, and were last in sacks as well. Their two best linemen off that line have left, leaving...what? A lot of new people. They hired Jim Panagos from Minnesota to coach the defensive line. They added some B1G quality transfers in Dwumfour from Michigan, Ireland Burke from BC, and former OSU guy Malik Barrow. They're still waiting on whether Burke can play this year, and if so adds a big body in the middle of the line. There is potential here that Rutgers doesn't get steamrolled up front in each game, and if so that would make them look a heck of a lot better.
13. Maryland: Olu Oluwatimi, Sam Okuayinonu, Mosiah Nasili-Kite, Lawtez Rogers
Definitely taking the cake for names I keep mispelling, Maryland is also in the beautiful struggle up front. Maryland also had a putrid defense last year, worse by overall statistics but a tick better by SP+. The rushing defense was actually not bad, and their line statistics here were all around the middle of the pack. I don't expect that to change - they have some big bodies up front that are going to be difficult to move. The problem was their pass defense was brutal, and their pass rushing was non-existent. Their "top" rushers off the line last year have graduated, leaving well...not much. Lawtez Rogers and Okuayinonu each had one sack last year. Nasili-Kite is a JUCO transfer. They have some recruits in the pipeline, but it looks to be another tough road this year.
12. Nebraska: Ben Stille, Damion Daniels, Deontre Thomas, Damian Jackson
We are entering the "not terrible at football" portion of the rankings. However, there is some reason to worry here about the Cornhuskers. Nebraska was pretty lousy up front last year - their total and advanced rushing statistics were second worse to Rutgers. The pass rush was a little better, though not great. The problem is they lost all three starters off last year's line. The guys mentioned above, plus Keem Green, are the only guys who recorded a statistic. A combo of "being bad" plus "returning guys who couldn't outcompete the bad guys" is not encouraging. Stille looks like something - he had 3 sacks and 6.5 TFL last year. They do have some JUCO transfers that should get some playing time. Otherwise, this squad isn't lower mostly out of name brand recognition.
11. Illinois: Isaiah Gay, Jamal Woods, Owen Carney, Calvin Avery
Illinois is a bit tricky to rank. They were actually quite strong on the defensive line last year - while their overall defensive stats were poor, by advanced stats they had a decent defense and the line was effective against the run. However, they lost a ton of production from last year, and there isn't a ton of info to glean on these new guys. Calvin Avery was a four star recruit a couple years ago. When I'm doing rankings I'm usually looking at returning experience, talent, and the history of the program. Their returning experience ain't much, the talent is pretty average, so it's mostly how much confidence you have in Lovie Smith and Illinois' program. I don't have much.
10. Purdue: George Karlaftis, Branson Deen, Lorenzo Neal, Lawrence Johnson
Another one that is difficult to rank. Last year, Karlaftis was a breakthrough last year as a true freshman, and made the media's all B1G team. 17 TFL and 7.5 sacks as a freshman is some dang good production. Plus, Lorenzo Neal missed all of last year with injury after having a great season in 2018. His space eating presence should only help. You can make an argument they should be ranked higher. However, you also have to account for the fact that Purdue was pretty much garbage on defense last year. Their SP+ defensive ranking was 82nd (bad) and their defensive line stats were pretty poor across the board. Still, if I'm a Purdue fan I'm probably optimistic this group will be much improved in 2020.
9. Northwestern: Samdup Miller, Jake Saunders, Trevor Kent, Earnest Brown
The Gaz is gone. Long live the Gaz. Going through these teams, one notes the B1G was really good last year, and also they have lost a lot of defensive line talent from last year. That may not bode well for the B1G's fortunes this year. Anyways, the Gaz takes his 17 TFLs and 9 sacks off to the NFL, and second leading sack man Alex Miller is also gone. Northwestern was pretty bad last year overall, but their defense was pretty good. In fact, all the teams from here on out had pretty good defenses. I'm dropping Northwestern here mostly because it's more difficult for them to reload from losing a star player, even though they should still be fine. They return eight guys who recorded a sack or TFL from last year. Earnest Brown, as a former four star recruit, might be the centerpiece here.
8. Minnesota: Esezi Otomewo, Boye Mafe, Micah Dew-Treadway, Keonte Schad
There's a definite glass half full/half empty vibe with the Gophers line. The Gophers' defense rounded into form last season, but they have lost a lot of starters there. The defensive line itself loses three starters, including Carter Coughlin who ended up on the Giants. Still, backup ends Otomewo and Mafe played and were productive, recording 5 and 3.5 TFLs respectively. Former linebacker Thomas Rush has been moved to (of course) rush end, and so they have three guys they think can rush the passer. They Former ND tackle Dew-Treadway returns at nose tackle, and Schad is a senior who has also gotten playing time. So the glass ain't completely full but it is definitely not empty for the Fleckstones.
7. Michigan State: Jacub Panasiak, Drew Beesley, Naquan Jones, Jacob Slade
Another tricky one to rank. By last year's production, this was a top three group. While MSU struggled overall, the defense was great (13th by SP+) and the defensive line (2nd in line yards per carry), led by Raequon Williams and Kenny Willekes, was another great unit. Those guys are gone, but you would have faith that a Dantonio led defense would still be pretty good even if 11 guys from this board were on it. But now there's no Dantonio, either, so like with most things Sparty, we are just guessing. This starting group all played snaps last year, even if Panasiak is the only returning starter. Depth is a concern - not many guys who have played much outside of the starters. Also unclear is what kind of defense Sparty will even play - they could slowly transition to a 3-4
6. Indiana: James Head, Sio Nofoagatoto'a, Jerome Johnson, Michael Ziemba
We'll give the Hoosiers some love. Their defense last year was a tick below some of the groups below them (43rd on SP+) and the defensive line stats were just all right. But this group returns nearly everyone in their two deep. Jerome Johnson probably gets the headlines - he led the line in sacks and TFLs last year. They also like Head, who has flashed potential but is now the full time starter and pass rusher. They have a lot of meat in the middle - besides the starters they rotate in Demarcus Elliott, himself a good space eater. The days of Indiana being a push over up front are gone, and while other teams have been quite ravaged up front, the Hoosiers are stable and talented. 2020, indeed.
5. Iowa: Chauncey Golston, Daviyon Nixon, Austin Schulte, Zach VanValkenburg
We move into our B1G elite defenses. Iowa was awesome last year (6th by SP+) but they have suffered some big losses up front. Due everything end A.J. Epenesa went to the NFL and two other starters graduated. This is where advanced stats get kind of weird - Iowa's line stats defending the run weren't good, even if overall they were quite good and obviously they had a good defensive line. Stats, man. Anyways, returning starter Chauncey Golston can play; he was second on the team last year in TFL's with 9. Nixon has played and looked the part, but a lot of the other guys are question marks and you'll see a lot of new faces depth wise, as well. Hard to drop Iowa too far but expect a drop off from last year.
4. Michigan: Carlo Kemp, Mazi Smith, Aiden Hutchinson, Kwity Paye
Should be another very solid line for the Wolverines this year. They went through a bit of upheaval last year, though by the end of the season their defensive rankings were quite strong. They return nearly everyone except for pass rush specialist Josh Uche. The main area of consternation for Wolverine fans is at defensive tackle, where i listed Mazi Smith but could easily be Donovan Jeter or Chris Hinton. While it's true that someone with little experience will man that position, nearly every team is dealing with that. I view Michigan's line as very good, and listed them fourth mostly on a lack of star power. While these guys are solid, we are still waiting for someone to really wreck opposing defenses. That could be former five star tackle Hinton, or maybe wonderfully named Luigi Vilain. Uche had 8.5 sacks last year and only played part time - they need a playmaker to emerge.
3. Penn State: Shaka Toney, P.J. Mustipher, Antonio Shelton, Jayson Oweh
This group got a big lift when Shaka Toney (2nd team B!G) decided to return to school for his fifth year. His return gives the Nittany Lions an experienced, dependable starter and they seek to replicate last year's success up front. They had the 10th rated defense by SP+ and gave up the fifth fewest rushing yards in the country. They have a bit of work to do. Inside, Rob Windsor was drafted, though Shelton and Mustipher all played substantially. Outside, they lose star Yetur Gross-Matos, and replacing him is the difference between a good line and a great one. Jayson Oweh is the nominal starter, and he's an athletic marvel (4.33 40) and former top 100 recruit. They are also excited about Adisa Isaac, another former top 100 recruit. If one of those guys emerges to wreck defenses like Gross-Matos, the Lions will compete for the best line in the conference.
2. Wisconsin: Bryson Williams, Keeanu Benton, Garrett Rand, Isaiahh Loudermilk
If we are going by returning players, Wisconsin is #1 with a bullet. They return nearly everyone who looked at the field last year. There overall defense was strong (14th in SP+) and they were number one short yardage on third and fourth downs. That was with NT Bryson Williams missing a lot of time due to injury and Benton being thrust into action as a true freshman. Both ends were strong, and they return Matt Henningsen, who led the line in sacks. The knocks here? There aren't many. Injuries have been an issue for these guys, though they have a lot of depth. Star power is another one - in Wiscy's scheme these guys are real big and free up the linebackers to make plays. They did suffer some attrition to the linebacker unit, so they might want some more plays from these guys to make up for it. We'll see if anyone can make that next step.
1. Ohio State: Jonathan Cooper, Tommy Togiai, Antwaun Jackson, Zach Harrison
Another glass half full, half empty kind of team. Do you look at the losses of Chase Young and company and say this team will struggle. Or do you look at the seven guys who played 200 snaps who do return and say it's going to be another monster year up front for the Buckeyes? They were filthy last year, leading the country in sacks, total defense and landing number 2 in SP+. There is no replacing Chase Young, but the Buckeyes do return a quintet of defensive ends in Cooper, Harrison, as well as three other guys who played regularly. Harrison will get the eyeballs, and is probably the most athletic lineman in the conference, but keep an eye out for Tyreke Smith, who looked great last year when he wasn't injured. They return three regulars in the middle, though former five star recruit Taron Vincent will be trying to break into that group after missing last year due to injury. Larry Johnson's preference of playing lots (and lots) of guys, plus some wonderful recruiting and history of success puts the Buckeyes in the #1 spot for now.
