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Topic: B1G-E Race after week 11

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G-E Race after week 11
« on: November 15, 2021, 03:07:14 PM »
I'll start with the East because that is BY FAR the easier one.  

Ohio State (7-0), Michigan State (6-1), and Michigan (6-1) are the only teams left in the running because all other teams have at least four losses so they can't catch up.  They each have two games left which totals six but two of them are against each other so there are only four relevant games left which leaves 16 possible outcomes (2^4) and a lot of those are duplicates so I'll just make a chart showing all relevant possible outcomes:

So there are 16 mathematically possible outcomes which I have numbered for ease of discussion should there be any questions or comments.  Of the 16 possible outcomes:

  • tOSU goes to the CG in 8
  • MSU goes to the CG in 5
  • M goes to the CG in 3

Ohio State has the most theoretical ways to get to the CG because they have a one-game lead.  MSU is close because they win all ties.  

Twelve of the sixteen possibilities will be eliminated this weekend.  Ohio State can clinch if they and UMD win.  Michigan State is eliminated with a loss.  Michigan is eliminated only if they and Michigan State both lose:
  • If tOSU beats MSU then scenario's 9-16 are eliminated which eliminates MSU.  
  • If MSU beats tOSU then scenario's 1-8 are eliminated.  
  • If M beats UMD the even-numbered scenarios are eliminated.  
  • If UMD beats M the odd-numbered scenarios are eliminated.  


Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G-E Race after week 11
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2021, 06:52:29 PM »
There's NO WAY that the Wolverines barf up a game against Maryland. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-E Race after week 11
« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2021, 11:38:44 AM »
There's NO WAY that the Wolverines barf up a game against Maryland.
FWIW:
A loss to Maryland would eliminate the Wolverines from CG contention no matter what happened in the earlier tOSU/MSU game:

If tOSU wins and M loses the Buckeyes move to 8-0 and the Wolverines fall to 6-2 so they couldn't catch up even with a win over Ohio State.  

If MSU wins and M loses the Buckeyes and Spartans would both be 7-1 which M would be 6-2.  The best they could do is a three-way tie for the B1G-E Championship (with a win over tOSU and a PSU win over MSU) but MSU wins that tie on the basis of H2H2H because they'd have beaten both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines.  

So looking at this weekend's games either Michigan or Michigan State or both are mathematically out of CG contention with a loss.  The Buckeyes would still be in the race mathematically with a loss but they'd need to beat Michigan and they'd need a PSU win over MSU.  

Mdot21

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Re: B1G-E Race after week 11
« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2021, 12:16:14 PM »
odds are....Ohio State beats MSU (OSU great at passing- MSU dead last at 130 in pass defense) and Michigan takes care of business vs a pretty shitty Maryland team that is missing 3 of it's top 4 WR's.

Which means THE GAME on 11/27 will be for all the B1G E marbles- a trip to the B1G CCG and a playoff spot.

 

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