| Illinois had probably one "must win" game all year, last week at Rutgers, and they won it convincingly. By winning it, they kept their very slight bowl hopes alive, but it probably requires winning again this week, beating Minnesota at home, and then winning in Lincoln. Not likely, but not impossible. A couple weeks ago this seemed like a far more winnable game, as Purdue's defensive graduations were seemingly too much for the Boilermakers to overcome. But after an 0-5 start looked very possible, Purdue put together their best performance of the season in a blowout win over Boston College, then went into Lincoln and won. The one concern about that win over Nebraska? The 28 points, 31 1st down and nearly 600 yards of offense that Purdue allowed to Nebraska, the week after they struggled to get to 100 yards against Michigan. Fan who saw the Boston College win as a sign the defense had turned the corner now have cause for concern. Through two Big Ten games, against sub-.500 Northwestern and Nebraska nonetheless, Purdue is surrendering 491.5 ypg, second worst in the conference, ahead of only Nebraska. It has to start up front, they have to get after the quarterback, tallying only 2 sacks combined through those two games. As Northwestern and Nebraska showed last week against good defenses in Michigan State and Wisconsin, their offenses can put up points. With Illinois, who knows? Yes, the three touchdown victory looked convincing, but they only out-gained the Scarlet Knights by 30 yards, and had 7 fewer first downs. They just took advantage of a +3 turnover differential, scoring 10 points off of the first two, and the third taking a Rutgers score off the board with a goal to go situation. That's one way to get opposing offenses off the field, because otherwise the Illini aren't doing it, surrendering third down conversions over 50% of the time in conference games. One thing that last week did settle for the Illini is that A.J. Bush is still their starting quarterback. The freshman M.J. Rivers looked very good in losses to South Florida and Penn State, while Bush was hurt after looking less than spectacular in wins over Kent State and Western Illinois. But Rivers didn't see the field against Rutgers, and Bush played within himself passing, and showed off his legs, running for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns. He needs to be more effective as a passer to give the Illini a shot here though. 89 passing yards might work against Rutgers, less likely against Purdue. Granted the Illinois rushing attack may be for real. Aside from Bush's 116 yards on 6.4 ypc and 2 touchdowns, Reggie Corbin and Mike Epstein combined for 200 yards on 10.0 ypc and another 2 touchdowns. Granted all three had runs of over 40 yards, and you can't count on that, but Illinois did appear to have something working. Even in the loss to Penn State, Illinois ran for 245 yards on 5.4 ypc, and granted it's a small sample size, but their 6.5 ypc is best in the conference in conference games. They face a Purdue run defense that ranks in the bottom half of the FBS, and is giving up 212 yards on the ground per game in conference play. Purdue needs to strike quickly and put Illinois behind, the Illini do not want to have to throw the ball. Illinois needs to control tempo and match Purdue, the longer they stay close, the more they can stick to what they do. I expect a surprisingly solid environment, and a good test for Purdue. They'll pull it out, but not without questions being raised again about just where this defense is. That said, if Purdue can get up a couple touchdowns early, they have a chance to bury Illinois, so long as Lovie changes it up to go for the win, rather than simply going for keeping it close. |
