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Topic: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« on: October 29, 2018, 10:12:34 AM »
B1G-E:
  • 5-0 Michigan:  controls their own destiny.  
  • 4-1 Ohio State:  controls their own destiny.  
  • 3-2 Michigan State:  needs three M losses.  
  • 3-2 Maryland:  needs three M losses.
  • 3-2 Penn State:  needs two tOSU losses and an M loss.    
  • 1-5 Indiana:  mathematically eliminated.  
  • 0-5 Rutgers:  mathematically eliminated.  
B1G-W:
  • 5-1 Northwestern:  controls their own destiny.  
  • 3-2 Iowa:  needs one UW loss.  
  • 3-2 Wisconsin:  needs two NU losses.  
  • 3-2 Purdue:  needs two NU losses.  
  • 1-4 Nebraska:  practically eliminated*.  
  • 1-4 Minnesota:  practically eliminated*.  
  • 1-4 Illinois:  practically eliminated*.  

*In theory one of the 1-4 teams in the B1G-W could win out to finish 5-4 while NU lost their last three B1G games (IA, MN, IL) to also finish 5-4 and none of the three 3-2 teams won more than twice but as a practical matter that isn't going to happen.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2018, 10:19:09 AM »
So Northwestern can withstand a loss to Iowa so long as Wisconsin wins out? 

Interesting. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2018, 10:21:35 AM »
So, NW has to beat Minn and Ill to win the west, right?

The Iowa game is relevant, but not if they beat those other two.

They could be 7-5 and win the West.  

They had a close loss with Michigan of course ...
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2018, 11:03:40 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 29, 2018, 10:19:09 AM
So Northwestern can withstand a loss to Iowa so long as Wisconsin wins out?
Interesting.
I'm not sure where you are getting that.  I assume you meant that NU could withstand a loss to Iowa so long as UW wins out AND NU wins their other B1G games.  That would result in a three-way tie in the B1G-W as follows:
  • 7-2 Northwestern:  Lost to Michigan and Iowa, beat UW.  
  • 7-2 Wisconsin:  Lost to Michigan and NU, beat Iowa.  
  • 7-2 Iowa:  Lost to Penn State and UW, beat NU.  
  • 5-4 (or worse) Purdue
  • 4-5 (or worse) Nebraska
  • 3-6 (or worse) Minnesota
  • 3-6 (or worse) Illinois

Tiebreakers:
  • The first tiebreaker is H2H2H and NU/UW/IA would all be tied 1-1.  
  • The second tiebreaker is divisional record and NU/UW/IA would all be tied 5-1.  
  • The third tiebreaker is record against the next highest placed team(s) in the division, then the next, etc and NU/UW/IA would all be tied 1-0 against each.  
  • The fourth tiebreaker is record against all common conference opponents.  NU/UW/IA have no non-divisional opponents common to all three so this is the same as #2 above.  
  • The fifth tiebreaker is best cumulative record of non-divisional opponents (see below)
  • The sixth tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the other division, then the next, etc.  NOTE: For the purpose of this tiebreaker, 0-0 IS better than 0-1 (see below)
  • The seventh tiebreaker is overall winning percentage against FBS teams.  If we got here Iowa would win based on being perfect OOC while UW and NU had one and two (could be three after this weekend) OOC losses respectively.  
  • The eighth tiebreaker is random draw.  

Expanding on #5, cumulative record of non-divisional opponents: Currently:
  • 8-7 Northwestern's non-divisional opponents (M, MSU, RU) are currently 8-7
  • 8-7 Wisconsin's non-divisional opponents (M, PSU, RU) are currently 8-7
  • 7-9 Iowa's non-divisional opponents (PSU, UMD, IU) are currently 7-9

As of right now, this would go in favor of Northwestern because Iowa would be eliminated based on their non-divisional opponents having a worse cumulative record then it would revert to H2H among NU and UW and NU won.  

Expanding on #6, record against the best team(s) in the other division:
  • 5-0 Michigan:  UW and NU are both 0-1, Iowa is 0-0.  
  • 4-1 Ohio State:  All three are 0-0.  
  • 3-2 MSU, PSU, and UMD:  NU is 1-0; UW would be 1-0 in this scenario; Iowa would be 1-1.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2018, 11:06:59 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2018, 10:21:35 AM
So, NW has to beat Minn and Ill to win the west, right?

The Iowa game is relevant, but not if they beat those other two.

They could be 7-5 and win the West.  

They had a close loss with Michigan of course ...
No, this is wrong.  Northwestern is currently 5-1 while Iowa is currently 3-2.  If Northwestern loses to Iowa then they would lose a H2H tie with the Hawkeyes due to that H2H loss and at that point both teams would have two B1G losses so Northwestern would NOT control their own destiny.  If Northwestern loses to Iowa then they will need Iowa to lose one of their other remaining B1G games (PU, IL, UNL) or possibly to find a way to win a multi-team tie with Iowa and/or UW and/or PU.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2018, 11:15:31 AM »
Yeah, thanks for that correction.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2018, 11:23:10 AM »
I was going off everyone needing two Northwestern losses except Iowa, who would need one Wisconsin loss. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2018, 11:28:14 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 29, 2018, 11:23:10 AM
I was going off everyone needing two Northwestern losses except Iowa, who would need one Wisconsin loss.
Yeah, but they also need to win out.  What I list there is only the things that they need that are outside of their control.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2018, 11:47:03 AM »
Yeah, I said they could withstand a loss to Iowa (meaning only Iowa) so long as Wisconsin wins out. 

Iowa can't win it without another Wisconsin loss, even if they beat Northwestern, and no one else can win it if Northwestern only loses once (to Iowa, in this scenario). 

At least that's how the OP read to me. Just clarifying that I read it correctly. 

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2018, 12:18:59 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 29, 2018, 11:47:03 AM
Yeah, I said they could withstand a loss to Iowa (meaning only Iowa) so long as Wisconsin wins out.

Iowa can't win it without another Wisconsin loss, even if they beat Northwestern, and no one else can win it if Northwestern only loses once (to Iowa, in this scenario).

At least that's how the OP read to me. Just clarifying that I read it correctly.
  • Northwestern can withstand a loss to Iowa (meaning only Iowa) so long as Wisconsin wins out:  That depends on the cumulative records of NU's, IA's, and UW's B1G-E opponents.  
  • Iowa can't win it without another Wisconsin loss:  Well I think they might be able to win a multi-team tie with UW and NU.  It depends on records of B1G-E teams.  
  • No one else can win it if NU only loses once:  Right because NU leads in the loss column and owns H2H wins over both PU and UW.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2018, 12:34:19 PM »
I'm pulling for NW to win the whole thing.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2018, 12:51:10 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 29, 2018, 12:34:19 PM
I'm pulling for NW to win the whole thing.
I'm pulling for Northwestern this weekend!
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2018, 01:53:03 PM »
everybody is pulling for Fritz
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Divisional races headed into week 10
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2018, 06:57:23 AM »
B1G-W:


NW faces Iowa, Minny, and Illinois.  

Wisky is at PSU and at Purdue and then Minny.  Not an easy slate.

Purdue is at Minny, Wisky, and at Indiana.

MW has a pretty clean run to winning the West.

Fun fact:  The battleship Wisconsin damaged it's bow in a collision and the bow of a partially completed USS Kentucky was used to repair it, giving rise to the informal term USS Wisky.

https://militaryhistorynow.com/2018/08/19/big-whisky-12-amazing-facts-about-the-battleship-uss-wisconsin/

"The Wisconsin’s Class A plate steel, the type used in all Iowa battleships’ armor belt, consisted of nickel and iron – also called nickel-steel. Its thickness varied at certain points. It was as deep as 12 1/8-inches around the hull but as much as 17 inches on the turrets and the conning tower. BB-64, like all Iowas, could likely withstand a direct hit from an 18-inch armor piercing shell from 18,000 yards (about 10 miles)."
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