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Topic: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2024, 05:48:42 PM »
This article from an Oregon site caught my eye.  The writer stated that Oregon needs both a tOSU loss to IU AND a PSU loss to Minnesota to clinch this weekend. 

I think he is wrong but now I'm questioning my understanding of the tiebreakers so I'd like some review/input from the board. 

My understanding is that a tOSU loss clinches a B1GCG berth for the Ducks because:

  • tOSU would be out at 6-2 because the best they could do is 7-2 and that would be behind the worst that Oregon and IU could do (7-1 each). 
  • Oregon would win any potential tie involving Penn State. 

Ties are only relevant for the Ducks if they lose to Washington and I'm asserting that an Indiana win over tOSU clinches it for the Ducks so our assumptions are:
  • Indiana beats Ohio State this weekend, and
  • Oregon loses to Washington next weekend. 
Given those assumptions there are 4 possible scenarios:
  • IU wins the league outright at 9-0.  Penn State loses to either MN or UMD or both.  Oregon finishes alone in second place at 8-1. 
  • IU wins the league outright at 9-0.  Oregon and Penn State tie for second at 8-1. 
  • IU loses to PU and finishes 8-1.  Penn State loses to either MN or UMD or both.  Oregon finishes tied with IU for first at 8-1. 
  • IU loses to PU and finishes 8-1.  Penn State wins out.  Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all tie at 8-1. 

Oregon is in without resorting to tiebreakers in scenarios #1 and #3 so forget them. 

Scenario #2, Oregon and Penn State tie for second at 8-1.  Tiebreakers:
  • If tied for #1:  Not applicable, they are tied for second. 
  • H2H:  Not applicable, they didn't play. 
  • Record against all common conference opponents:  For Oregon and Penn State these are tOSU, IL, the two UW's, UCLA, UMD, and PU.  Both 6-1 against those seven teams with Ore losing to UWash and PSU losing to tOSU.  Thus this is tied so move to:
  • Record against conference opponent with the best conference record, then the next, etc.  The best will be Ohio State because tOSU is 6-1 so they can do no worse than 6-3 while UWash is 4-4 so they can do no better than 5-4.  Oregon wins and goes to the CG. 
Scenario #4 IU, ORE, and PSU all tie at 8-1, tiebreakers:
  • H2H2H:  Not applicable because none of them played each other. 
  • Winning percentage against all common conference opponents:  For the Ducks, Hoosiers, and Nittany Lions these are tOSU, UWash, UCLA, UMD, and PU.  They would each be 4-1 against those five with the losses coming to tOSU, UWash, and PU for PSU, ORE, and IU respectively.  Thus, this is toed so move to:
  • Record against the next highest placed common opponent.  Ohio State would be first here so PSU would be eliminated and the Ducks would play the Hoosiers in the CG. 

Am I missing a scenario in which tOSU loses to IU and Oregon is left out of the CG?  I can't see one. 
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2024, 06:57:37 PM »
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #16 on: November 20, 2024, 09:26:39 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 19, 2024, 06:57:37 PM
Just saw this posted


https://twitter.com/ChrisVannini/status/1858980770611950029?s=01
LoL.

Hard to tell I guess.

According to link I posted Oregon needs both tOSU and PSU to lose.

I think just tOSU.

This link says already clinched. 
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2024, 09:43:25 AM »
https://bigten.org/fb/article/blt323f32f0ef5dac27/

Yeah, I am not even going to try to figure it out,  but concede it's very, very confusing.

But according to the Big Ten's own official website, the Big Ten is saying it's official.  Oregon has clinched a spot in the CCG.   

The fact that it took the Big Ten and Oregon 2 days to figure that out themselves is confirmation it's not easy to sort out.
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2024, 09:51:16 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 20, 2024, 09:43:25 AM
The fact that it took the Big Ten and Oregon 2 days to figure that out themselves is confirmation it's not easy to sort out.
This is ... amusing, to me.  I think the SEC does it about the same way.  This is why I hope they end up with a slew of 6-2 teams in conference.

I don't think Texas will lose to Kentucky, but A&M could well lose at Auburn, the spread is pretty tight.
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2024, 09:57:40 AM »
Well, when it comes to college football conferences,  math and geography are not exactly their strong points.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2024, 10:04:30 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 20, 2024, 09:43:25 AM
https://bigten.org/fb/article/blt323f32f0ef5dac27/

Yeah, I am not even going to try to figure it out,  but concede it's very, very confusing.

But according to the Big Ten's own official website, the Big Ten is saying it's official.  Oregon has clinched a spot in the CCG. 

The fact that it took the Big Ten and Oregon 2 days to figure that out themselves is confirmation it's not easy to sort out.
Thanks for the link.

The scenario in which I thought that Oregon could miss is a 4-way tie at 8-1.

Here is their explanation:
"Ohio State earns first berth due to highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all
conference opponents. Oregon earns second berth due to win vs. common opponent
ranked highest in standings (OSU; ORE def. OSU, OSU def. PSU). Oregon would be No. 1
seed and Ohio State would be No. 2 seed due to head-to-head result."

Penn State currently has and could end up with a higher cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents. I thought that meant that tOSU and PSU would be selected.

Instead, the B1G's interpretation is that after Ohio State is selected, the other three go back to step #1.

That seems like an odd reading of the tiebreakers but it is apparently the official B1G reading.

This also means that Penn State is more-or-less eliminated.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2024, 10:14:43 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2024, 10:04:30 AM
Instead, the B1G's interpretation is that after Ohio State is selected, the other three go back to step #1.

That seems like an odd reading of the tiebreakers but it is apparently the official B1G reading.
That's been a feature of the tiebreakers as far back as I can remember. 

If you have a multi-team tie, once you get to a tiebreaker step where one team becomes the clear winner, you slot them in and then start over with only the remaining tied teams. 

I.e. once Ohio State is the 1 seed, you now have a three-way tie between 8-1 teams that is evaluated from scratch as if Ohio State is no longer part of that tie.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2024, 10:19:54 AM »
I dislike it
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #23 on: November 20, 2024, 11:30:06 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 20, 2024, 10:14:43 AM
That's been a feature of the tiebreakers as far back as I can remember.

If you have a multi-team tie, once you get to a tiebreaker step where one team becomes the clear winner, you slot them in and then start over with only the remaining tied teams.

I.e. once Ohio State is the 1 seed, you now have a three-way tie between 8-1 teams that is evaluated from scratch as if Ohio State is no longer part of that tie.
That was my understanding IF there was one winner and everyone else was tied. That is NOT the case in this scenario. 

Also, it seems odd to me that Ohio State is NOT the #1 seed. They are the first team to win by tiebreakers but then for seeding they start from scratch and it goes to Oregon based on H2H.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #24 on: November 20, 2024, 11:56:57 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2024, 11:30:06 AM
That was my understanding IF there was one winner and everyone else was tied. That is NOT the case in this scenario.

I thought that's what they said. In a four-way tie at 8-1, OSU wins the tie based on cumulative conference winning % of all conference opponents. Essentially OSU had the 'hardest schedule' so they win the tie.

Then OSU is removed and you have a three-way tie at 8-1. It's based on record against best common opponent. Since OSU would have played all three teams, and Oregon beat OSU while PSU and IU lost to OSU, Oregon wins that tie. 

Did I miss something?

Quote
Also, it seems odd to me that Ohio State is NOT the #1 seed. They are the first team to win by tiebreakers but then for seeding they start from scratch and it goes to Oregon based on H2H.

That does also seem odd to me. I would have thought that by virtue of winning the four-way 8-1 tie, OSU would retain the #1 seed.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #25 on: November 20, 2024, 11:58:13 AM »
by gaining the #1 seed you get to chose home or road unis?
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #26 on: November 20, 2024, 01:00:38 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2024, 11:30:06 AM
Also, it seems odd to me that Ohio State is NOT the #1 seed. They are the first team to win by tiebreakers but then for seeding they start from scratch and it goes to Oregon based on H2H.
Yes, that would be a big deal if the #1 seed gets to host the CCG.  But since the CCG is at a neutral site,  I wonder how much it matters to each team.

Does the #1 seed get to choose the locker room or the uniform colors?  I guess that is something.    I am sure it is worked into the coaches contract IF he makes it to the CCG and if he wins the CCG,  but I doubt if the contract cares if his team is the #1 seed or the #2 seed going into the game. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G CG Race heading into the last two weeks
« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2024, 10:20:59 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on November 20, 2024, 11:56:57 AM
I thought that's what they said. In a four-way tie at 8-1, OSU wins the tie based on cumulative conference winning % of all conference opponents. Essentially OSU had the 'hardest schedule' so they win the tie.

Then OSU is removed and you have a three-way tie at 8-1. It's based on record against best common opponent. Since OSU would have played all three teams, and Oregon beat OSU while PSU and IU lost to OSU, Oregon wins that tie.

Did I miss something?
Obviously the league agrees with your interpretation but just by way of explanation, my understanding was the same as yours only IF the "other" teams were all tied.  

So for example, if all four (Ducks, Bucks, Hoosiers, Lions) tied at 8-1 then we'd go through the tiebreakers and all would be tied until we get to "cumulative league record of league opponents" (aka, SoS).  The presently stands at:
  • .531 Ohio State, 34-30
  • .424 Penn State, 28-38
  • .400 Oregon, 26-39
  • .354 Indiana, 23-42
My previous assumption was that since this doesn't have one winner and a three-way tie for second but rather a four-team hierarchy of tOSU>PSU>Ore>IU this would break the tie:
  • Ohio State - #1 seed, home jerseys in the CG
  • Penn State - #2 seed, goes to CG

I only thought that we would remove one team and send the others back through the tiebreakers if the situation was that you had ONE winner (or one loser) and the other three were tied.  
Quote from: FearlessF on November 20, 2024, 11:58:13 AM
by gaining the #1 seed you get to chose home or road unis?
Quote from: LittlePig on November 20, 2024, 01:00:38 PM
Yes, that would be a big deal if the #1 seed gets to host the CCG.  But since the CCG is at a neutral site,  I wonder how much it matters to each team.

Does the #1 seed get to choose the locker room or the uniform colors?  I guess that is something.    I am sure it is worked into the coaches contract IF he makes it to the CCG and if he wins the CCG,  but I doubt if the contract cares if his team is the #1 seed or the #2 seed going into the game. 
This is my understanding.  The #1 seed doesn't host, they merely get to wear home jerseys so it REALLY doesn't matter.  I'm not arguing the point because it matters to my team, I'm arguing the point because it makes no sense to me that the first tiebreaker winner somehow isn't the #1 seed.  
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