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If you haven't followed this post in the past what you need to know is that the way the B1G tiebreakers are written, H2H rarely controls because it only applies if either:

• All tied teams played each other, or
• One of the teams beat each of the others

Otherwise we drop to a series of other tiebreakers and generally land on "opponent winning percentage" which is effectively a measurement of conference SoS.  So here that is so far:


It is interesting that the top three teams in the standings are the bottom three in this tiebreaker.  That helps to keep the other 1-loss teams alive in the race because any of them would likely win a tie.  

Mathematically the Hoosiers and the tOSU/M winner can do no worse than 6-3 so all teams with 4+ losses are eliminated.  Goodbye Terps, Knights, Lions, Badgers, Spartans, and Boilermakers.  If you actually started running scenarios the 3-loss teams are probably mathematically eliminated as well because there just aren't enough losses to go around above them so goodbye Illini and Huskers.  

The two-loss teams (MN, NU, UDub, UCLA) are very much in it mathematically but as a practical matter they are out because they just need too many things to go their way.  

The serious contenders are the undefeated and 1-loss teams so here goes:

• 6-0 Indiana, beat Ore and IA, no contenders left on schedule.  
• 5-0 Ohio State, has not played a contender and will not until The Game.  
• 5-1 Michigan, lost to USC and does not play another contender until The Game.  
• 4-1 Oregon, lost to IU, plays @IA this weekend and vs USC in two weeks.  
• 4-1 Iowa, lost to IU, plays Ore this weekend at @USC next.  
• 4-1 USC, beat M, plays IA in next weekend and @Ore the week after that.  

Oregon, Iowa, and USC are playing a round-robin amongst themselves over the course of this and the next two weekends.  If one of them sweeps that and wins the rest of their games, they'll be a contender.  Michigan needs to win out.  Indiana and Ohio State control their own destiny.  They go to Indy if they win out but the chances of either of them making it with a loss don't look very good due to the unfavorable tiebreakers.  

I don't know about that for IU.

Let's be realistic; I don't see more than 1 loss for them going forward.

They've beaten both Oregon and Iowa H2H, so if it's a 2-way tie between IU and one of those teams, they would win the tie based on H2H.

Oregon and Iowa play each other, so it's impossible for both of them to finish with one loss.

Michigan, realistically, is going to lose to OSU.

So think of the scenarios assuming an IU loss:

• OSU beats Michigan, Oregon or Iowa wins out, meaning one (or both) have beaten USC. In this case it's IU vs *only* Oregon or Iowa, and they proceed due to H2H. They're in the CCG.
• Michigan beats OSU, now IU is in trouble. You're going to have multiple tied teams with 1 loss. Likely IU, OSU, UM, and let's throw in at least one of the three other 1-loss teams (although it's not necessary). At this point there is no clear H2H. In fact I don't see a scenario where an IU loss coupled with a UM win vs OSU (assuming UM or OSU don't get another loss elsewhere) lets IU proceed because they're currently 4 games back in conference opponent W/L of UM and OSU.
• Michigan loses to OSU, USC beats both Oregon and Iowa to be the only 1-loss team tied with IU. Here there's no H2H so USC gets the nod based on conference opponent W/L%.

But... I don't think the odds of a UM win over OSU are that strong, and I think USC will be strong underdogs to Oregon given that the game is in Eugene.

That is a good point.  I really didn't spend much time analyzing scenarios I just looked at the overall and said "IU's opponents are BAD".  

My rankings are always based on who I think will win a game on a neutral site, TODAY.

There is no credit for past accomplishments, or failures.

I had Nebraska higher last week. They lost their QB.

But to your point, Ohio State might be the one that's screwed here... 

B/C any team they'd be tied with at 8-1 would be undefeated against common conference opponents given that OSU doesn't play IU, OR, IA, or SC. 

So if they lost to UM as their only loss, they would lose H2H tiebreaker if nobody other than UM/OSU is 8-1, and both UM and OSU would lose the first tiebreaker via conference opponent W/L% if OR/IA/SC is the other 8-1 team. 

If they were to lose to anyone else (and beat UM) as their only loss, and one of OR/IA/SC is 8-1, they're screwed. If they lose to Purdue, USC at 8-1 beat Purdue. If they lose to UCLA, USC at 8-1 would also have beaten UCLA. If they lose to Rutgers, either Iowa or Oregon at 8-1 would have beaten Rutgers. So it either defaults to common conference opponents (OSU loses first) or if it's a scenario where there are no common conference opponents, then it's overall conference opponent W/L% and they lose there. 

The only scenario that doesn't kill them IMHO is if IU *also* finishes 8-1. Because IU would not only have also lost to a non-contender to get there, but would likely finish with a worse conference opponent W/L%. So in that case depending what game OSU loses, and who else is in the tie, they might have a shot. But that's a little too complicated to hash out b/c we have to figure out not only every scenario based on WHICH team both IU and OSU lose to, but also every scenario based on which of UM and/or OR/IA/SC finish 8-1. Give that one a few more weeks to shake out 

Challenge accepted (just for the fun of it,  i know its not gonna actually happen)

1. What needs to happen for Illinois to make the CCG

ILL wins out,  goes 6-3
IND wins out,  goes 9-0
OHIO St loses out,  goes 5-4
MICH loses all games except beats OSU,  goes 6-3
USC beats Iowa and beats Oregon, loses all other games,  goes 6-3
Iowa  beats Oregon,  loses all other games,  goes 5-4
Oregon beats Minn and loses all other games, goes 5-4
Minn beats NW and loses all other games,  goes 5-4
NW beats USC and Mich, and loses all other games,  goes 5-4
Wash beats Oregon and UCLA and loses all other games,  goes 5-4
UCLA beats USC and Ohio St and loses all other games,  goes 5-4
Neb beats UCLA and Iowa and loses to PSU,  goes 5-4

So ILL,  Mich,  USC finish in a 3-way tie for 2nd at 6-3.  And Illinois wins that tiebreaker (I think)

I'll double-check this:
I can't find anything newer so I *THINK* these (you have to click that then click the link for the full tiebreakers which includes multi-team) are the applicable tiebreakers:

• H2H2H but only if they all played (they wouldn't have because IL doesn't play Mich) or if one defeated the other two (this doesn't apply either because IL beat USC, USC beat M, and M didn't play IL).  
• Record against all common conference opponents:  For IL, USC, and Mich these are Northwestern and Purdue.  IL would be 2-0 (already beat PU, would have to beat NU to get here).  USC would be 1-1 (already beat PU, would have to lose to NU to get here).  M would be 1-1 (already beat PU, would have to lose to NU to get here).  Thus Illinois wins.  

I do not see anything mathematically impossible about your suggestion.  

2. Ok Nebraska is harder to figure out because they have lost to USC, Michigan, and Minn.  My goal is avoid any tiebreakers between Neb and any of those 3 teams.

Neb wins out,  goes 6-3
IND wins out,  goes 9-0
Mich loses out,  goes 5-4
Ohio St loses all games except beats Mich,  goes 6-3
USC beats Oregon, loses all other games,  goes 5-4
Iowa  beats Oregon and USC,  loses all other games,  goes 6-3
Oregon beats Minn and loses all other games, goes 5-4
Minn beats NW and loses all other games,  goes 5-4
NW beats USC and Mich, and loses all other games,  goes 5-4
Wash beats Oregon and UCLA and loses all other games,  goes 5-4
UCLA beats USC and Ohio St and loses all other games,  goes 5-4
ILL beats NW, and loses all other games ,  goes 4-5

So Neb, Iowa and Ohio St finish in a 3-way tie for 2nd place,  and Neb wins that tiebreaker (I think)

So,  as unlikely as these scenerios are in reality,  I believe Illinois and Nebraska are technically still alive.

I'll double check this as well:
Tiebreakers:

• H2H2H doesn't help because Ohio State didn't play either of them.  
• Common conference opponents are PSU and Minnesota.  Ohio State and Iowa would each be 2-0 (already beat both PSU and MN) while Nebraska would be 1-1 (already lost to MN, would have to beat PSU to get here).  

At this point you have to VERY carefully read the fine print of the tiebreakers.  In this case there are two teams (tOSU and Iowa) tied for second place (behind 9-0 IU) and:
"If a tiebreaker step produces results with two teams tied for a position other than No. 1, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.  If the two teams did not play, move to two-team tiebreaker above."  Thus UNL is eliminated while tOSU and Iowa move to the two-team tiebreaker which is:

• 3 (1 and 2 are skipped because they deal with a tie for No. 1 or a tie with a H2H game):  Record against common opponents: For tOSU and Iowa these are PSU, UW, MN, and RU.  Iowa is 4-0 (already played all four) while Ohio State would be 3-1 (already beat PSU, UW, and MN and would have to lose to RU to get here.  

Thus Iowa is the representative.  So we (mostly @Brutus Buckeye ) are still looking for a mathematically possible scenario that gets the Huskers to Indianapolis.  

So think of the scenarios assuming an IU loss:

• Michigan loses to OSU, USC beats both Oregon and Iowa to be the only 1-loss team tied with IU. Here there's no H2H so USC gets the nod based on conference opponent W/L%.

I looked at this one closer b/c of the "common [conference/overall] opponents" aspect which come before conference opponent W/L%...

USC would finish at 8-1 in conference with only a loss to Illinois, who IU did not play. IU would have to lose to either Penn State, Wisconsin, or Purdue, to finish 8-1. USC did not play the first two, so in those cases it would be conference opponent W/L%. USC did play Purdue and won, so if Purdue beat IU, USC would get the earlier tiebreaker and not rely on conference opponent W/L%. 

Against my better judgement,  I spent some more time thinking about this.  I may have found a way for Nebraska to make it to the CCG.

Neb wins out,  goes 6-3

thanks Dude
this Lateef kid is a stud and should have been #1 all along