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Topic: B1G CG Race after week 10

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G CG Race after week 10
« on: November 03, 2024, 02:09:20 PM »
For the first time this year we have mathematical eliminations and because of the way this week went there are a LOT of them.

Indiana and Oregon each have six wins and thus can do no worse than 6-3. Consequently, the eight teams with four or more losses are officially eliminated.

Four teams (IL, UWash, UWisc, and Mich) are 3-3. The best that any of them could do is a tie for a spot in the CG. To get that they would need to win out and for either the Hoosiers, the Ducks, or both to lose out. Additionally they'd need tOSU and PSU to lose twice each and Iowa and Minnesota to drop a game each. Even then they wouldn't necessarily win the tie.

The bottom line is that the three-loss teams are effectively out.

That brings us to the two loss teams: Iowa and Minnesota. The Floyd of Rosedale twins have a more realistic chance than the three-loss teams but they'd still need all kinds of help. Iowa already lost to Ohio State and doesn't get a shot at any of the other teams ahead of them. Minnesota gets a crack at Penn State but they lost to Iowa so their tiebreakers aren't pretty.

The bottom line is that Iowa/Minnesota could get there but they'd need to win out and get LOTS of help.

That just leaves the four teams with one or zero losses. I believe that all except Penn State control their own destiny. I'll address these four serious contenders individually:

Penn State:
The loss to Ohio State leaves the Nittany Lions needing help but they are still very much in the race. Their biggest problem is that they'd likely lose almost any tie.

Ohio State:
If they win out they are in because they'd win a two way tie with either IU or PSU or a three way tie with both of those. A four-way tie with the Ducks, Hoosiers, and Lions would come down to record of league opponents and Ohio State is so far ahead there that I don't think they could possibly lose.

Indiana and Oregon:
These two are simple if they win out. Oregon is probably in even with a single loss but it gets complicated. Indiana more-or-less has to win out because the tiebreakers are ugly for them.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2024, 02:56:17 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2024, 03:38:16 PM »
How long until there's a season with 3+ undefeated Big 10 teams? 

LittlePig

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2024, 09:28:58 PM »
How long until there's a season with 3+ undefeated Big 10 teams?
I predict it will be very rare.  It's very hard to win 9 games against other Big Ten teams.  It's even harder for 3 teams in the same season to do it.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2024, 09:37:31 PM by LittlePig »

Abba

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2024, 09:04:12 AM »
This year was actually pretty close.  If Penn State had won that game, then we could have seen Indiana, Penn State and Oregon all undefeated as they don't play each other.

FearlessF

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2024, 09:24:54 AM »
a good sign that conferences are too large
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

LittlePig

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2024, 10:05:35 AM »
This year was actually pretty close.  If Penn State had won that game, then we could have seen Indiana, Penn State and Oregon all undefeated as they don't play each other.
But that's the key.  PSU didn't win.  All 3 teams you mentioned did not play each other but all 3 still had to play Ohio St.  And Ore stil had to play Mich,  Wisc, ILL, Wash,  etc.  Ind still had to play Mich,  Wash, MSU,  etc

So each team still plays 9 other teams.  So already that's 9 teams that can't finish undefeated if you do.  The other 8 teams play each other enough to limit the number of other teams that can go undefeated.  I ain't sayin you willl never have 3+ teams go 9-0 in one season,    but it will be a once in a generation type thing.  Maybe once every 20-40 years.

In the end it will work itself out in most years.  I am more worried about 3-way or 4-way ties at 8-1.  But least then you can say each team had a chance to go undefeated and didnt.

FearlessF

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2024, 10:10:57 AM »
I am more worried about 3-way or 4-way ties at 8-1.  
and the tie breaker might be a poll of some sort to make the most money
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2024, 02:48:37 PM »
and the tie breaker might be a poll of some sort to make the most money
For the time being, the likely definitive tiebreaker for our league is strength of league opponents.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2024, 04:08:40 PM »
What if there is a 4-way tie at 8-1.  This is still very much possible, simply:

  • Ohio State wins out.
  • Indiana loses to Ohio State but otherwise wins out.  
  • Oregon loses obe and only one game.
  • Penn State wins out. 

That creates a 4-way tie at 8-1 between the Hoosiers, Buckeyes, Ducks, and Nittany Lions.  If you look through the B1G tiebreakers this would ultimately come down to "cumulative league record of league opponents".  Ie, the team that played the toughest league schedule wins.  So how are these teams opponents doing so far?  I'm glad you asked, here it is:
  • 0.558, Ohio State's league opponents are 29-23 in the league. 
  • 0.423, Penn State's league opponents are 22-30 in the league. 
  • 0.412, Oregon's league opponents are 21-30 in the league. 
  • 0.373, Indiana's league opponents are 19-32 in the league. 

There IS a lot of football to be played so these are in flux but they might be a bit more locked in than you would at first suspect.  For one thing, all four teams play Purdue so none of Purdue's results matter because they are all either wins for all four or losses for all four.  Additionally:
  • Ore, IU, and PSU all play tOSU. 
  • Ore and PSU both play IL. 
  • tOSU, Ore, and IU all play Michigan. 
  • Ore and PSU both play UWisc. 
  • tOSU and IU both play UNL. 
  • tOSU, Ore, and IU all play MSU. 
  • Ore, PSU, and IU all play UWash. 
  • tOSU and IU both play NU. 
  • Ore and IU both play UCLA. 
  • None of the four play Rutgers. 

Plus, there are a LOT of games remaining between teams that these teams played.  For example, next weekend MSU plays at Illinois.  Both the Spartans and the Illini are Oregon opponents so that is already guaranteed to be 1-1 for Oregon's league opponents. 

Ohio State's lead is humongous and realistically insurmountable.  Indiana is so far behind that I don't think they can catch up.  Thus, in the event of a four-way tie at 8-1 the Buckeyes will wear home jerseys in the B1GCG and their opponent will be either Penn State or Oregon. 

As between the Lions and Ducks, they have the Buckeyes, Illini, Badgers, Huskies, Bruins, Terps, and Boilermakers as common opponents so the only difference is:
  • Oregon plays the two Michigan Schools
  • Penn State plays Minnesota and USC. 

That is what it comes down to:  Wolverines + Spartans vs Gophers + Trojans. 
« Last Edit: November 04, 2024, 04:16:17 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

FearlessF

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2024, 05:47:28 PM »
well, the polls would have picked the Buckeyes so all is good in the conference
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

LittlePig

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2024, 07:52:22 PM »
If the 7-team Big Ten West still existed the division standings right now would be

Iowa 4-3
Minn 4-3
ILL 3-3
Wisc 3-3
Neb 2-4
NW 2-4
Pur 0-6

FearlessF

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2024, 07:56:37 PM »
heck, add a couple west coast teams - except Oregon
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

LittlePig

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2024, 08:26:39 PM »
If the 6-team Big Ten Legends Division still existed the division standings right now would be

Iowa 4-3
Minn 4-3
Mich 3-4
MSU 2-4
Neb 2-4
NW 2-4

FearlessF

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Re: B1G CG Race after week 10
« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2024, 08:18:19 AM »
so, yer sayin Kirk would prefer divisions?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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