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Topic: Are divisions good or bad strategy?

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FearlessF

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #70 on: February 26, 2023, 12:34:48 PM »
the argument has always been that, the 9th game would mean something to Vanderbilt & South Carolina. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2023, 12:52:53 PM »
Another loss?
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847badgerfan

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #72 on: February 26, 2023, 01:11:48 PM »
The Cocks had some nice wins last season. They beat aTm too.

They are not in the same realm with Vandy, which beat Florida.
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FearlessF

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #73 on: February 26, 2023, 01:54:08 PM »
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MrNubbz

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #74 on: February 26, 2023, 05:44:00 PM »
Quote from: Gigem on February 26, 2023, 12:14:22 PM
This shit again?  The SEC already plays the toughest schedule in the toughest league.  No need to make it any more difficult than it already is.  Besides, the 9th game would not mean anything when it's Vanderbilt or South Carolina. 
Might want to ad A & M at the end of that sentence
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rolltidefan

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #75 on: February 28, 2023, 09:52:59 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on February 25, 2023, 06:22:16 PM
Not like I want to carry water for the Wolverines, but they play 9 conference games and have no FCS teams on the schedule.

Come back at us when the SEC has 9 conference games and no FCS.

I will say, at least your Gators scheduled their FCS bodybag game early in the season. Not like 'Bama who have it the week before the Iron Bowl.
sec did that in 2020. 10 conf games, no fcs, for all sec teams. seemed to work out just fine.

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bayareabadger

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #76 on: February 28, 2023, 11:00:35 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 25, 2023, 08:45:44 PM
Florida has played the 12th-game cupcake the week before FSU, so that's no different.
I love the idea that an FCS team is 'worse' than a MAC team.

Either a team has a <1% chance of beating you or it doesn't.  All MAC, Sun Belt, and FCS teams belong in that group.  They are practically all the same that way.  Distinguishing between them is a waste of time and unproductive.

The age-old 9 conf games vs 8 conf games is stupid.  The B1G has chosen to play 9 conf games WITH NO ONE TELLING THEM THEY HAVE TO.
That's on them.  Inventing an extra obstacle to a great season is a strange way of trying to have a great season.
1% seems low. It also sort of undercuts the range of each category.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #77 on: February 28, 2023, 01:03:18 PM »
You're right, it's more like 'outside of 2 standard deviations,' which would be around 2-4%. 
But still.
I thought it incorporates the range of each well, as a strong FCS team is better than a bottom-feeder FBS squad. 

Michigan is around 50-4 vs G5 teams the last 50 years.  And I'll assume they're 11-1 or 20-1 or 35-1 vs FCS teams in that timeframe as well.  We all know the one.....because it was a crazy outlier legendary event.
Idk how many wins vs FCS they have, but I doubt the win% is much higher than 50-4 (.925).  Not enough games to get there with that 1 loss.
.
Anywho, I think my point stands.  There's a cutoff between teams that have a reasonable chance at winning and those who do not.  By definition, the latter group will win sometimes, but not often enough for it to be significant.  For every major upset, there's 5 or 6 or 10 examples of 52-7 blowouts.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #78 on: February 28, 2023, 01:05:40 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on February 28, 2023, 09:52:59 AM
sec did that in 2020. 10 conf games, no fcs, for all sec teams. seemed to work out just fine.


Yeah, many fans of non-SEC schools act like it's some sort of odd fear thing.
What it actually has been is an offer for some free money (extra home game), and the SEC schools shrugging and taking it.  
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Gigem

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #79 on: February 28, 2023, 03:14:15 PM »
And remember, the SEC was the first conference to schedule a conference champion game back in 1992.  The next closest was the Big 12 in 1996.  So the SEC already made it harder for their champions to make the title game.  

When did they B1G get a conference championship game?  2010?  
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847badgerfan

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #80 on: February 28, 2023, 03:22:21 PM »
2011 - when UNL joined to the get to the required 12th member. 

ACC started in 2005 after it raided the Big East of BC, Miami and VT.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #81 on: February 28, 2023, 06:00:52 PM »
Copycats
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #82 on: March 01, 2023, 01:16:58 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 28, 2023, 01:03:18 PM
You're right, it's more like 'outside of 2 standard deviations,' which would be around 2-4%. 
But still.
I thought it incorporates the range of each well, as a strong FCS team is better than a bottom-feeder FBS squad. 

Michigan is around 50-4 vs G5 teams the last 50 years.  And I'll assume they're 11-1 or 20-1 or 35-1 vs FCS teams in that timeframe as well.  We all know the one.....because it was a crazy outlier legendary event.
Idk how many wins vs FCS they have, but I doubt the win% is much higher than 50-4 (.925).  Not enough games to get there with that 1 loss.
.
Anywho, I think my point stands.  There's a cutoff between teams that have a reasonable chance at winning and those who do not.  By definition, the latter group will win sometimes, but not often enough for it to be significant.  For every major upset, there's 5 or 6 or 10 examples of 52-7 blowouts.


The Wolverines are actually only 2-1 all time vs FCS opponents. Not a very good win percentage at all. 

In their defense, they also didn't fare very well against the G5 there for a while, either. Toledo, pre-PAC Utes several times over, and so forth. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Are divisions good or bad strategy?
« Reply #83 on: March 01, 2023, 12:17:42 PM »
This link suggests that G5 beats P5 anywhere between 17% and 22% of the time, depending on how you slice it. (All time vs shorter more recent time durations). 22% is all time and includes WAC as G5 and Big East as P5, whereas if you go last 20, last 10, or last 5 years, including or not including WAC/BEast, it's pretty much always somewhere between 16.8% and 19%. 

This link suggests that in all FCS vs FBS (all FBS, not just P5) matchups since 2006, the FCS team has a 7.9% win percentage. I'm assuming that win percentage is higher against G5 and lower against P5, but I can't find a clear delineation of that data. Admittedly, 2006 is chosen because that's when I-AA became FCS, and that's when FCS started scheduling 12 games, so there are a lot more matchups past that point. I'd be remiss not to mention that from 1978-2005, the win percentages were higher. 

So I would argue that the odds of a P5 team losing to a G5 team are SIGNIFICANTLY higher than losing to an FCS team. At least double, because the G5 win percentages against P5 is always higher than 16.8% any way you slice it, which is more than double the 7.9% win percentage FCS has against ALL FBS. But probably even significantly beyond double, because P5 likely has better results against FCS than G5 has against FCS. 
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