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Topic: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9

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Cincydawg

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Re: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2019, 08:51:10 AM »
Minny schedule:

Penn State
@ Iowa
@ NW
Wisconsin

2-2 would be a great result there I think, and 10-2 would be an exceptional regular season.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2019, 10:29:49 AM »
Minny schedule:

Penn State
@ Iowa
@ NW
Wisconsin

2-2 would be a great result there I think, and 10-2 would be an exceptional regular season.
I agree and it *MIGHT* get them to Indianapolis.  It depends on which two they lose.  If they beat the Iowa/Wisconsin winner then they go.  If they lose to the Iowa/Wisconsin winner then they'll need the Iowa/Wisconsin winner to lose another game.  

Iowa remaining schedule:
  • @ Wisconsin
  • vs Minnesota
  • vs Illinois
  • @ Nebraska
Wisconsin remaining schedule:
  • vs Iowa
  • @ Nebraska
  • vs Purdue
  • @ Minnesota

As a practical matter, if the Iowa/Wisconsin winner beats Minnesota they are unlikely to lose another game.  Thus, for all practical purposes I would put it this way (note, this isn't mathematical, other things *COULD* happen, this is just the very likely outcome):
  • If Minnesota beats the UW/IA winner, they go.  
  • If the UW/IA winner beats Minnesota, they go so long as Minnesota loses at least one other game.  
  • Everybody else's chance is probably <2%.  


LittlePig

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Re: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2019, 05:02:22 PM »
So if I had to guess my bowl projections would be

1. CFP - OSU 13-0
2.  Rose - PSU 11-1
3.  Citrus - Wiscy 10-3
4.  Outback - Mich 9-3
5.  Holiday- Iowa 9-3
6.  Gator- Minn 9-3
7.  Pinstripe - Indy 8-4
8.  Redbox - MSU 7-5
9.  Detroit- Neb 6-6
10.  Whatever the bowl in Texas is - ILL 6-6

Cincydawg

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Re: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2019, 07:28:17 AM »
Georgia might get paired with Wisconsin this year.

ELA

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Re: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2019, 08:43:21 AM »
So if I had to guess my bowl projections would be

1. CFP - OSU 13-0
2.  Rose - PSU 11-1
3.  Citrus - Wiscy 10-3
4.  Outback - Mich 9-3
5.  Holiday- Iowa 9-3
6.  Gator- Minn 9-3
7.  Pinstripe - Indy 8-4
8.  Redbox - MSU 7-5
9.  Detroit- Neb 6-6
10.  Whatever the bowl in Texas is - ILL 6-6
Problem is the whole 5 teams in 6 years or whatever.  I doubt MSU goes back to the Redbox.  I think all 3 projections I've seen for them this week say Pinstripe.

One said MSU-FSU in the Pinstripe.  Talk about your all time apathy bowls.  Two programs who have been in the CFP already, coming off a disappointing year, with lame duck coaching staffs, playing in freezing cold NYC, in the middle of the afternoon, two days after Christmas.

Yikes.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2019, 11:10:34 AM »
In order for the PSU/tOSU winner to miss the B1GCG, that team would have to lose two other games.  

In Ohio State's case that would most likely be Michigan and Maryland.  

In Penn State's case that would most likely be Minnesota and Indiana.  

I think the PSU example is more likely because I think that Indiana has a better shot against PSU than Maryland has against Ohio State.  However, the B1G-E representative in Indianapolis would still probably be either Penn State or Ohio State anyway.  Here is the hypothetical:

  • Penn State loses to Minnesota (11/9) and Indiana (11/16) but beats Ohio State (11/23) and Rutgers (11/30).  Penn State finishes 7-2/10-2.  
  • Ohio State loses to Penn State with UMD, RU, and M TBD and finishes somewhere between 6-3/9-3 and 8-1/11-1.  
  • Michigan finishes somewhere between 3-5/6-6 and 7-2/10-2 (it really doesn't matter as you will see).  
Now the results:
  • If Ohio State wins their other three games they finish 8-1/11-1 and win the B1G-E outright despite the loss to PSU.  Nobody can catch them, they go to Indianapolis.  
  • If Ohio State goes 2-1 in their other three games they finish 7-2/10-2 and tied with PSU.  Ohio State can't win this tie* so Penn State goes to the B1GCG.  
  • If Ohio State goes 1-2 or 0-3 in their other three games they finish behind PSU (and possibly also Michigan).  
  • If Michigan wins out they finish 7-2/10-2 and tied with Penn State.  Michigan can't win this tie* so Penn State goes to the B1GCG.  
The tie:
The potential tie is either:
  • A two-way tie between PSU and tOSU, or
  • A two-way tie between PSU and M, or
  • A three-way tie between PSU, tOSU, and M
The first tiebreaker is H2H (or H2H2H as appropriate) and PSU would be:
  • 1-0 against Ohio State, or
  • 1-0 against Michigan, or
  • 2-0 against Ohio State and Michigan
Thus, they can't lose the tie.  


LetsGoPeay

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Re: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2019, 11:49:38 AM »
Indiana cannot go to the Pinstripe or Redbox bowls this year. 

LittlePig

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Re: Divisional Races and Bowl Plans after Week 9
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2019, 07:52:05 PM »
Indiana cannot go to the Pinstripe or Redbox bowls this year.
I guess if Iowa loses to both Minny and Wiscy, then Indiana can move up to the Gator Bowl and Iowa can drop down to the Redbox.  Iowa has been to the Gator and Pinstripe bowls recently, so no need for Iowa to go back to those 2.

Sounds like MSU is resigned to the fact its their turn to go to the Pinstripe, so I am just going to assume they are locked into the Pinstripe unless they upset Michigan.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2019, 04:42:14 PM by LittlePig »

 

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