I'm not sure if it's momentum, or recent expectations, but man, these two two teams, with similar records, could not feel farther apart. That what happens when you have a five week stretch of playing the conference's three best teams, two on the road, with a pair of bye weeks sprinkled in. The last time Michigan State fans saw their team have a pulse was now 6 weeks ago. The Spartans still sit 30 spots higher in SP+ than the Illini, who are in the midst of their first three game winning streak of any type since 2011, and their first three game Big Ten winning streak since the 2007 Rose Bowl team. If they can beat a reeling Michigan State team, it's their first 4 game conference winning streak since the 2001 Big Ten champion team won their final 7 after a Big Ten opener loss at Michigan. I think this comes down to whether Illinois' defense is actually good, or just fake good. Prior to this three game winning streak the Illini were on a 4 game losing streak, that included giving up 34 points to an Eastern Michigan team that ranks #10 in the MAC in scoring offense, and surrendered 40+ points in the other three games. So did they fix something? Well, against Wisconsin, they still allowed 420 yards, and only forced 2 punts. They just also forced three turnovers, and were able to force Wisconsin to kick field goals, 4 of them. Then they played Purdue, and their backup quarterback, in a driving rain, and then Rutgers. And well, giving up 10 points to a Rutgers offense that had scored 14 points TOTAL in their first Big Ten games combined isn't exactly outstanding. But is Michigan State's defense good? Yeah, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State are elite, but this defense held up against everyone last year, and just didn't get the offense to support them. The Spartans defense looked in September to pick up right where they left off, but since the Indiana game, just haven't. In conference play, the Spartans are #10 in scoring defense, #9 in run defense, #7 in pass defense, and #7 in total defense. They are winning 1st and 2nd down, and then giving up 3rd down conversions at 43% of the time. But, again that has been against 4 of the best offenses in the country. If the Spartans can hang onto the ball, I think Illinois' defense is still bad. Don't get me wrong, so is Michigan State's offense, but they've shown life, against Western Michigan, Northwestern and Indiana. Not the stiffest competition, but probably better data points than Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. The Illini lead the Big Ten in turnover margin, and lead the nation in takeaways. If Michigan State doesn't turn the ball over, they should have enough offense, for at least this week. |