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Topic: ELA November 26 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 22, 2022, 03:04:53 PM »

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-6, 3-8) at Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3, 7-4)

4:00 (Fri) - Iowa City, IA - BTN

It would be pretty funny if the West Division team that generated the most negative ink this year (Iowa), wound up representing the division in Indianapolis for the second straight year, and third time in the past nine years, trailing only Ohio State (4) for appearances in that time frame. But when Jake Moody made his game winning kick, shortly before Iowa kicked off last weekend, the Hawkeyes took control of their own championship destiny. Minnesota outgained the Hawkeyes by over 100 yards, dominated time of possession, held Iowa scoreless for over 45 game minutes, and had Mo Ibrahim run for 263 yards. But Iowa did Iowa things. Twice in the final 5 minutes, the Gophers were in scoring position, to win the game, and the Hawkeyes forced a fumble at the 9, and an interception at the 33, and then ended a string of 6 empty drives by kicking the winning field goal. Now all that stands between them and Indianapolis is a Nebraska team that once again found a way to lose a game they had seemingly wrapped up. It was the Huskers fifth consecutive loss, and they've held fourth quarter leads in 4 of their 8 losses. After holding the Badgers to 193 yards and 3 points on the game, they surrendered 125 yards and two touchdowns on two fourth quarter drives. The bigger problem was an offense that looked just as inept, even with the return of Casey Thompson. Thompson helped the passing game, with a serviceable 12-20 for 106 yards, 2 touchdowns and no picks. But if you are going to tally just 106 passing yards, you can't combine that with just 65 rushing yards on 2.2 ypc. While Ibrahim had himself a day last Saturday, the Iowa run defense still remains a solid unit. While the Nebraska run attack has fallen all the way to #13 in the conference. With nothing to lose, assuredly not returning to Lincoln next year, and no postseason this year, one would hope Mark Whipple would let Thompson throw it downfield. The only shot Nebraska has in this one is to let Trey Palmer go wild over the top, like he did against Purdue. Iowa has dominated this series recently, and while the last four have been close (average margin of victory of 4.8 ppg), the Hawkeyes have won 7 in a row. Make it 8.

IOWA 31, NEBRASKA 6

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-7, 4-7) at Maryland Terrapins (3-5, 6-5)

NOON - College Park, MD - BTN

My write up didn't post, and it's not worth redoing it for Rutgers-Maryland

MARYLAND 34, RUTGERS 17

Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-4, 7-4) at Wisconsin Badgers (4-4, 6-5)

3:30 - Madison, WI - ESPN

We were so close to this game being so much more than pride. If Minnesota and Nebraska had been able to finish last week, this would be the Gophers playing for potentially a Big Ten West title, against a Wisconsin team playing for bowl eligibility. Instead Minnesota is eliminated from contention for Indy, and Wisconsin is already bowl eligible. There is plenty of pride on the line since Minnesota has won 2 of the last 4, since ending Wisconsin's 14 year domination of the series. Now Minnesota seeks their first retention of the Axe since 1994, which was also in Madison. They've only won once in Camp Randall since. The Over/Under on this one is 34.5, which seems way too low to me. Yes, Minnesota and Iowa combined for just 23 points last week, and Wisconsin and Nebraska for just 29, but I think the underlying numbers suggest those scores probably should have been higher. The Gophers gave away at least 10 points with costly turnovers, and Mo Ibrahim ran at will. If you have one player go for 260+ yards, putting up just 10 points feels like a fluke. Wisconsin's run defense has started to play better recently, but they've been exposed at times this year. You would think becoming as one dimensional as Minnesota has been since Tanner Morgan went out would make them easier to defend, but that certainly hasn't held true the past two weeks, with Ibrahim running for 441 yards and 4 touchdowns (his first and third highest rushing totals of the season) without Morgan. But even with that, it wasn't enough against Iowa, because Athan Kaliakmanis has been a complete non-factor passing the ball. He has been 14-28 for 151 yards, no touchdowns, and 1 interception in his two starts. There were rumors than Graham Mertz wasn't even making the trip to Lincoln last week. He did, and took every snap, but I'm not sure if that's a good thing. Mertz has failed to complete even 50% of his passes in three consecutive games, and has only thrown for over 175 yards once in his past 5 games. This one should be ugly, and if Morgan is back and healthy, I'll give the Gophers the edge. But assuming he's not, I'll take the home team in a coin flip rivalry game.

WISCONSIN 23, MINNESOTA 21

Purdue Boilermakers (5-3, 7-4) at Indiana Hoosiers (2-6, 4-7)

3:30 - Bloomington, IN - BTN

Indiana relied on special teams and explosive plays to manufacture a win last week, and while this would be two straight "pride only" wins to end the season, the opportunity to, depending on what happens Friday, knock their biggest rivals out of the Big Ten Championship Game, would be pretty damn satisfying. The formula has to be the same for the Hoosiers, who scored on runs of 34 and 79, plus an 88 yard kick return, a Michigan State turnover inside their own red zone, and two blocked field goals. Indiana's six scoring drives last week consisted of 4 plays, 1 play, no plays, 4 plays, 9 plays, 2 plays. One scoring drive of more than 4 plays. The Hoosiers Big Ten worst run offense won the day against Michigan State's Big Ten worst run defense. But even after that, Indiana's run offense is still dead last in the conference in both rushing ypg and ypc. That's how far behind they were. Purdue's run defense is squarely middle of the pack in the conference, which might be good enough, if Indiana is still completely one dimensional behind Dexter Williams. Williams completed just 2-7 passes, and only one completion occurred in regulation. And they were still largely reliant on those explosive plays. Their two long touchdown runs boosted their ypc from 3.4 to 5.8. For Purdue, they will know by Friday evening what is at stake. If Nebraska can upset Iowa, Purdue is playing for their first trip to the Big Ten Championship Game. If they can't, it just trying to improve their bowl status, and win the Oaken Bucket for the fourth time in five tries (with a convenient skip in 2020 against the best Indiana team in two generations). I expect the Boilermakers to be plenty motivated either way, with Aidan O'Connell starting to play better, like he did in 2021, and in non conference play, after a rough start to Big Ten play. The biggest issue with him might be who is going to snap him the ball. Jeff Brohm confirmed that center Gus Hartwig, the leader and best player on Purdue's offensive line will be out. Josh Kaltenberger finished the Northwestern game, and likely gets the nod, but outside of O'Connell, Hartwig is probably the most important player to Purdue on that side of the ball. The Hoosiers were playing like probably the second worst team in the conference for the past couple months, and found a way to win last week while getting outgained by 250 yards. I don't think that changes who I think they are.

PURDUE 31, INDIANA 23

Illinois Fighting Illini (4-4, 7-4) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-7, 1-10)

3:30 - Evanston, IL - BTN

If there is anything as a moral victory, it's an Illinois team going into Michigan Stadium and nearly upsetting undefeated, #3 Michigan, the first team to seriously challenge the Wolverines all season. The problem is when that creates a three game losing streak that saw Illinois drop two games in which they were favored, to fall from division frontrunner to eliminated before the final game started. The Illini offense was surprisingly effective, particularly considering the opponent, and look to continue that this week. Chase Brown was a game time decision, but played, and played well. Tommy DeVito was surprisingly efficient, completing 70% of his passes with a 62 QBR. Both numbers were his best in an Illini loss all season. But most promising was the return to form for a defense that still ranks 3rd nationally in scoring, and 2nd in yardage, but had slipped up in losses to Michigan State and Purdue. Michigan stormed down the field on their first possession, scoring a touchdown in just seven plays, four of which were for double digit yardage. But after that, the unit returned to form, keeping Michigan out of the end zone for the rest of the afternoon. Unfortunately for the Illini, the 4 field goals Michigan tallied were enough. Now they both Nebraska and Indiana to pull massive upsets. Evan Hull has been the lone bright spot for Northwestern this season, and had another 100 yard performance last week at Purdue, despite getting no help anywhere else on the offense. Illinois struggled with Blake Corum in the first half last week, but that's a Heisman candidate running behind the best offensive line in the country. Once just one of those things were removed, Corum due to injury, Illinois shut down the Michigan run game. Michigan's other three backs ran for 42 yards on 15 carries (2.8 ypc), with nearly half of them coming on one 17 yard run. If Northwestern can't keep this Illinois front honest, and I have no idea how they can, Hull should fare about as well as Michigan's backup running backs. If Northwestern does put it in the air, they have to face an Illinois secondary which isn't as good as their front, but is incredibly opportunistic, ranking second in the nation in interceptions, while Northwestern has the second highest interceptions thrown rate in the Big Ten over the past month.

ILLINOIS 31, NORTHWESTERN 9

Michigan State Spartans (3-5, 5-6) at #11 Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2, 9-2)

4:00 - State College, PA - FS1

Mel Tucker wasn't extended primarily for his coaching acumen, but for the promise that he would upgrade the talent on the Spartans' roster. So far, he is seemingly on the right path there. But there is also a minimum baseline standard to coach at the Power Five level, and thus far, this coaching staff has not shown to have it. The talent isn't there yet, despite last year, and that's fine. But the coaches continuing to not put the talent they have in the position to succeed is concerning. From late game clock management situations, to short yardage play calling, to horrific special teams gaffs, to two different fifth year seniors freewheeling last week and harpooning two drives, there are certainly some red flags. Look no farther than James Franklin, who has had identical complaints during his tenure in Happy Valley. A great head coach 353 days a year, but deeply concerning on those 12 game days. And minus any outside factors, does anyone think Michigan State, at peak recruiting is going to recruit with Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State? They are the 4th biggest helmet in their own division. Mark Dantonio neutralized a lot of that, by arguably being the best in game and player development coach in the Big Ten. The early returns on Mel Tucker suggest that this Michigan State's ceiling is being a poor mans Penn State. As to the game itself, this is a super contrived rivalry, but it at least feels like it fits at the end of the season. The Spartans have fared well in it recently, winning 7 of the past 10 to take an 18-17 all time series. Penn State is playing for a potential New Years Six Bowl, but after the disaster last weekend Michigan State finds themselves playing just for a bowl. The easy narrative is that the Big Ten's worst run defense got shredded on the ground. But overall, the Spartan defense was ok against the run, their problem was was surrendering the explosive play. They gave up three touchdowns on plays of over 35 yards, a 35 yard run (set up by a 50 yard kickoff return), a 79 yard run, and an 88 yard kickoff return. After winning 4 of 5, including over Wisconsin and Illinois, I thought this Spartan unit was finally rounding into form, but after blowing a 31-14 second half lead at home, with a bowl game on the line, it's clear there are deeper problems.

PENN STATE 37, MICHIGAN STATE 14

GAME OF THE WEEK

#3 Michigan Wolverines (8-0, 11-0) at #2 Ohio State (8-0, 11-0)

NOON - Columbus, OH - FOX

Meh, who cares?

OHIO STATE 31, MICHIGAN 23

FearlessF · « **Reply #1 on:** November 22, 2022, 05:53:54 PM »

geez, I don't think Nebraska has a chance in this game, but I don't think the margin will be 20+

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** November 22, 2022, 06:11:32 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 22, 2022, 05:53:54 PM

geez, I don't think Nebraska has a chance in this game, but I don't think the margin will be 20+

Homer

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** November 23, 2022, 02:15:19 PM »

Non GOTW Noon game in

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** November 23, 2022, 05:20:35 PM »

Everything but GOTW in

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** November 26, 2022, 09:26:29 AM »

Games in, barely, sort of

MrNubbz · « **Reply #6 on:** November 26, 2022, 09:37:27 AM »

Ha great minds and all that - on another Board i went with OSU 30 UM 24

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Topic: ELA November 26 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 26 Breakdown

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