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Topic: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18

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Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #462 on: October 23, 2018, 09:16:31 AM »
I'd be surprised if any AP voter spends more than 5 minutes on their poll.

If I post a poll here, that is more time than I spend on it.

You take last weeks poll and adjust for whoever lost or won a nice game and throw in whoever "also received votes" into the top 25 to replace whoever dropped out.

It's not hard to contrive a basic standard non-screwy looking ranking at least after the first week.
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847badgerfan

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #463 on: October 23, 2018, 09:29:05 AM »
I think the most important thing about a poll, particularly our poll, is how a team looks TODAY. 



It's not about the resume. Things change, like injuries, for example. So today, I think Purdue would beat every team I have ranked below them, including Ohio State, and so on.
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Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #464 on: October 23, 2018, 09:32:33 AM »
That model is fine, but you get into problems where syllogism doesn't work.

Either way, spending more than 5 minutes on your poll is wasted in my view.
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MrNubbz

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #465 on: October 23, 2018, 09:33:23 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 22, 2018, 02:37:16 PM
The simple answer is this, with the proliferation of available feeds, the vote should be shifted away from single-team beat writers. There are so many folks who are keeping an eye on the whole sport through the day. They should be getting the ballots.
That's prolly a good idea if they have any takers,which for a fee I'm sure they can
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bayareabadger

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #466 on: October 23, 2018, 09:33:40 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 23, 2018, 09:04:52 AM
I get your point,mine was simply that if they're(pollsters) getting paid for their efforts they may be putting in as much research as time allots.Also since their body of work is easily scrutinized more so than yours,mine or anyone else's around here,errors (real or perceived) easily draw criticism
They’re not getting paid for those efforts really. They don’t get anything extra for doing it, and it’s not really part of their jobs. 
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MrNubbz

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #467 on: October 23, 2018, 09:39:22 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 23, 2018, 09:16:31 AM
I'd be surprised if any AP voter spends more than 5 minutes on their poll.
Any?Really,if that is even remotely accurate,well then scrap the caddy,Clyde,Why bother?
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MrNubbz

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #468 on: October 23, 2018, 09:42:24 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 23, 2018, 09:33:40 AM
They’re not getting paid for those efforts really. They don’t get anything extra for doing it, and it’s not really part of their jobs.
Well then they get what they pay for.But I still like the 4 team play off,no sense in letting these guys settle anything else
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Cincydawg

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #469 on: October 23, 2018, 09:53:01 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 23, 2018, 09:39:22 AM
Any?Really,if that is even remotely accurate,well then scrap the caddy,Clyde,Why bother?
The AP poll is irrelevant anyway to anything.  So, why bother indeed.
Thinking this is 58 or however many experts spending more than 5 minutes on an irrelevant poll is, to me, just wrong.  It's a holdover of ancient times when folks paid attention to whether their team was 10th or 12th.
I think the playoff committee spends much much more time and effort on their "poll", and obviously theirs is the only one that really matters for anything substantive.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #470 on: October 23, 2018, 10:04:06 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 22, 2018, 07:08:17 PM
But that's not accurate either.Have you ever seen "Brain Games" on NatGeo?Collectively assertions have come in more accurate than individuals in many cases.Just get the microphone away from the bellyaching carnival barkers and let the masses mumble amongst themselves
True. That's generally the idea behind the stock market or prediction markets. Usually there are incentives in those cases though.
In many cases, increasing the sample size improves the reliability of prediction of the outcome. However, this is most true when the individual participants have a significant vested interest in the outcome, and least true when they don't. 
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bayareabadger

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #471 on: October 23, 2018, 10:14:39 AM »
Secondary question, is AP poll that inaccurate?  Is there a good way to measure how accurate/functional it is? 
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #472 on: October 23, 2018, 10:39:43 AM »
I don't think either poll is worth much, but (while skeptical of both) I am more skeptical of the Coaches poll than the AP.
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MaximumSam

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #473 on: October 23, 2018, 10:52:52 AM »
I find myself not really paying attention to the polls at all except for a decent quick look as to teams I don't follow much are having a good season.
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FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #474 on: October 23, 2018, 10:59:14 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 23, 2018, 09:53:01 AM
I think the playoff committee spends much much more time and effort on their "poll", and obviously theirs is the only one that really matters for anything substantive.
and how much different is the committee's poll than the AP????
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: All Hail the Supreme Leader SOC 10/20/18
« Reply #475 on: October 23, 2018, 11:10:20 AM »
College Football Playoff Rankings - 2017 

1   Clemson
2   Oklahoma
3   Georgia
4   Alabama
5   Ohio State   
6   Wisconsin
7   Auburn
8   USC   
9   Penn State
10   Miami
11   Washington
12   UCF   
13   Stanford   
14   Notre Dame
15   TCU   
16   Michigan State
17   LSU
18   Washington State
19   Oklahoma State   
20   Memphis
21   Northwestern
22   Virginia Tech
23   Mississippi State
24   NC State
25   Boise State

AP Top 25

1   Alabama
2   Georgia   
3   Oklahoma   
4   Clemson   
5   Ohio State   
6   UCF(4)   
7   Wisconsin   
8   Penn State
9   TCU   
10   Auburn   
11   Notre Dame   
12   USC   
13   Miami
14   Oklahoma State   
15   Michigan State   
16   Washington
17   Northwestern
18   LSU   
19   Mississippi State   
20   Stanford   
21   South Florida
22   Boise State
23   NC State
24   Virginia Tech
25   Memphis
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