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Topic: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 5
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ohio1317 · « **on:** September 27, 2021, 10:21:40 AM »

Teams with first loss week 4:
Liberty
Texas A&M
Rutgers
Kansas State
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
Utah State
Memphis

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
12: Conference champs of every conference except the MAC, plus Notre Dame, BYU and Army

Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 41.53% (54 of 130)
Week 2: 34.21% (26 of 76)
Week 3: 32% (16 of 50)
Week 4: 23.53% (8 of 34)

Week 4 Thoughts:
-I added the winless column this week and will probably add the 1-loss next week. The winless team list starts pretty small with just 7 teams. No conference has more than 1. There are 2 independents on the list. I find it interesting that over the last few years, independent teams seem to be teams either a) doing pretty well or b) toward the bottom of college football. This might shake-up some more now with realignment on the horizon.

-The biggest news of the week definitely is in the ACC. Clemson was no longer on the undefeated list, but would have been on the soon to be put on 1-loss team list and likely could have put themselves back in things by winning out. Now they are out without something at least approaching 2007 chaos. On the flip side, Boston College beat Missouri out of the SEC and Wake Forest won handily in a game it was a small favorite in. The ACC could have another 1-loss team get in, but I think this year those two are the only two with control of their destiny and the rest will need a decent bit of help. Other note: Clemson now likely needs NC State to lose twice to get to the ACC Championship.

-Minor shake-up in the SEC with Texas A&M falling to Arkansas. This wasn't shocking with the way the Aggies have been playing, but they were probably one of the ones more likely to be a #2 team in playoff bowls for the SEC to start year. Still plenty of room for that, but getting in 2 almost certainly means no more than 1 loss for both those teams.

-Notre Dame beat Wisconsin in Chicago. I was mildly surprised by that (although it is hard to be too surprised this year on anyone outside of maybe Alabama or Georgia losing). The Irish are where they want to be for a playoff run and this sets up another very big game vs. Cincinnati this week.

-On the Group of 5 auto bid spot, a few decent wins. SMU's win over TCU is a nice one for the American and leaves SMU and Cincinnati as only 2 American teams left entering conference play for most teams. Meanwhile UTSA's win over Memphis was a very big deal for Conference USA. It's a win over an American team who was doing well and leaves Conference USA with an undefeated. They also beat Illinois to start the year and have to be in the conversation for the spot as long as they keep winning. In the Mountain West, 1-loss Fresno State had a bit of a scare, but pulled away. As 1-loss teams go, they have a strong profile.

Week 5 Thoughts:
-We have 5 games between undefeated teams this week.

Undefeated Iowa @ undefeated Maryland (Friday): Iowa looked great to start the year with a win vs. a ranked Indiana team followed by a top ten win over Iowa State. Both look less impressive now as has Iowa the last two weeks, but they are still undefeated and highly ranked with a good resume. Maryland would definitely enter ranking with a win.

Undefeated Cincinnati @ undefeated Notre Dame: More at stake here than would have met the eye. We already see potential ACC issues with playoff and lot of potential this year elsewhere as well. Cincinnati beat Indiana last week and has at least a path if they can win this game they are slight favorites in. Notre Dame, for its part, might have this as a must win to for their playoff bowl hopes as well.

Undefeated Arkansas @ undefeated Georgia: After a big win for Arkansas last week, this is a top 10 match-up. Game will show a lot about both teams. Loser likely needs to win out for CFP bowl.

Undefeated Baylor @ Undefeated Oklahoma State: We are getting a better feel for the top of the Big 12. Oklahoma does seem somewhat vulnerable. Winner here will be looking at making run to Big 12 title.

Undefeated Ole Miss @ undefeated Alabama: Long shot, but Ole Miss has played pretty well.

Undefeated Boston College @ Clemson: Now Clemson has the turn at being the one to upset a different undefeated team. The Tigers need to be winning now to stay in ACC title race. They are definitely favorites here.

Undefeated Michigan @ Wisconsin: Michigan started out year looking really good and then had a closer game vs. an underrated Rutgers. Wisconsin is a disappointing 1-2 to start, but feels much better than that.

1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette @ undefeated South Alabama: Louisiana favored here, but better for the Sun Belt if South Alabama wins.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 5, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 3, total: 26
Boston College
Maryland
Wake Forest
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Cincinnati
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State
Southern Methodist
Brigham Young
San Diego State
Wyoming
Oregon
Georgia
Kentucky
Alabama
Arkansas
Mississippi
Army
Notre Dame
South Alabama
UTSA
Coastal Carolina

Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, independents: 2, total: 7
Florida State
Navy
Ohio
UNLV
Arizona
Massachusetts
Connecticut

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #1 on:** September 27, 2021, 11:17:01 AM »

It sure didn't take Ohio long to revert back to its natural state after Solich left.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #2 on:** September 27, 2021, 01:56:28 PM »

Good stuff. I think a two loss team won't make the CFP except under unusual circumstances (Auburn almost did, I don't think anyone else has been close, maybe UGA somehow). I "virtually" write them off once they get the second L.

I'll be shocked if the ACC has a team make the CFP.

ohio1317 · « **Reply #3 on:** September 28, 2021, 10:26:51 AM »

I pretty much do too. We've only seen a 2 loss team in once in the entire BCS/CFP era. That said, we are overdue for some 2 loss teams in. In the BCS era, it would have happened several more times with 4 teams (it only happened once with 2). I agree also ACC is pretty unlikely to happen now. Boston College or Wake Forest could run things out or maybe some surprise run by a 1-loss team that is hard not to notice, but I would be surprised on Boston College or Wake Forest winning out. Meanwhile, I don't think the top of the conference is going to be viewed favorably or get the benefit of the doubt if comes between a 1-loss ACC team and several other alternatives. It would not be the craziest that has happened though.

OU definitely has taken a step back in the MAC.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #4 on:** September 28, 2021, 01:33:26 PM »

Who would you take in a game between Arizona and Florida State?

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Topic: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 5

ohio1317

Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 5

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 5

Cincydawg

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 5

ohio1317

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 5

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 5