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Topic: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center

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jgvol

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #196 on: February 26, 2025, 01:08:46 PM »
The antitrust question is an interesting one. The laws haven't changed (in a very long time), but the government enforcement changed dramatically. My recollection is that the big change occurred under the Reagan Administration, but feel free to fact check that. The big change was that instead of protecting the number of competitors in a given market, the DOJ's antitrust enforcement division changed its focus to the impact on price competition. That helps really large companies against small compeitors because economies of scale will always favor Amazon over your local retailer (or your local-ish distributor who sells to your local retailer). And it allows for far fewer competitors. Hence, consolidation. As long as there is still price competition, the DOJ won't step in.

This is a good example of how enforcement decisions can dramatically change the way a law (or set of laws) works. But try to rally people around telling DOJ antitrust attorneys how to determine what is pro-competitive. It gets a little wonky and dry.

The income gap is a large and growing problem. I think it's pretty easy to see how it is impacting politics in the country (which is to say it is destabilizing). I'm curious what you guys think caused this and what can help the working poor catch back up to the 1950s/60s era gap. I have my own perspective, but I'm curious what yours is.

FYI: one major impact on wealth in the United States in the 1950s and 1960s was that this country was the only industrialized nation that emerged from WWII with a fully functioning industrial economy. When it was time to rebuild the world you needed to buy from the U.S. to do it. That provided a major boost to our economic fortunes.

Hart Celler Act.  Timeline checks out, and probably a good starting point.

The are many ugly inferences there, that many dare not touch -- but, nevertheless ---- IT is what it is, as they say.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #197 on: February 26, 2025, 01:33:36 PM »

The income gap is a large and growing problem. I think it's pretty easy to see how it is impacting politics in the country (which is to say it is destabilizing). I'm curious what you guys think caused this and what can help the working poor catch back up to the 1950s/60s era gap. I have my own perspective, but I'm curious what yours is.

That's way more than I can type, but just a few quick thoughts in response.  

CD's point about wealth gap and income gap is a relevant one.  I don't think it matters much how wealthy the wealthy get.  More pertinent is how much buying power does a family/individual have, and what are their prospects when they are too old to work?

Then comes the task of defining our operating terms.  When we say that in the 50's and 60's Boomers like my parents could be solidly middle class growing up with only one working parent who didn't even have to have a stellar job/income in order to have a home, a car, afford food, etc., we're still talking about a very different way of life than what people tend to think of now (imo) as "middle class."  Look at how much crap we have now that didn't exist then.  Crap that people think is necessity, but isn't really.  That all has to be accounted for.  Prices of homes and cars have to accounted for obviously, but there's 100 things around my house that are "normal" and people think we're "poor" if we don't have them, but arguably, they're not, and it's all stuff that my folks didn't have growing up.  

As far as what we can do.  Families need to be nuclear.  That's a bigger deal than anybody wants to talk about or admit.  We need to be healthier.  Insert diatribe against me here about how we're just better at diagnosing things now, we're not really getting less healthy blah blah blah.  Screw that, I have some small measure of industry knowledge here.  The costs associated with health care are drags on income, quality of life, and overall economy.  Energy needs to be as cheap as possible.  That drives so many other things beyond mere "I can pay my electric bill easier this month."  We need to make more "stuff" in the US, in addition to service industries and financial markets.  The federal government has find a way to spend less than it takes in, and not take in what unduly burdens its citizens.  As mentioned by someone else, get rid of the crony capitalism aspects that plague our regulations.  I have nothing at all against the rich, but screw any regulatory favors for them that make barrier to entry more difficult.  

This is a short list off the top of my head, and it all needs much more explanation and support, I realize.  Offering nothing more than a quick rundown, you might disagree with all the above.  But I think those ideas are defensible, and would result in a better standard of living for middle class, elevate the lower class, and make the possibility of a single working parent achievable again.  

Gigem

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #198 on: February 26, 2025, 01:59:03 PM »
Charitable donations are tax deductable of course (if you itemize).

I don't view it as a dodge.  You can't get rich donating money.

Basically, if you own a large chunk of some very successful company, you end up very wealthy, duh, in terms of wealth. 
Oh sure they're tax deductible.  And what if the head of the charity is your daughter or some other kind of kinship, and they make a salary of $1,000,000 per year plus expenses and private flights to attend Clean Water Conferences in Switzerland or whatever.  And all the executives of the charity each make $300-800,000 per year, and they also travel to all these conferences and the like.  But it's a charity, so it's a 501c tax exempt.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #199 on: February 26, 2025, 02:29:37 PM »
I don't understand your stance on weath inequlity.

IMHO, as long as the super wealthy are not hindering those of us in the lower classes from succeeding, where is the harm? Not everyone is going to be successful. Some will and of that group, a few here and there will far exceed successful and fall into the group of the ultra wealthy.

Right now, Musk, Bezos and Gates all made their money by working hard and finding a market that they could exploit. They broke no rules, just hard work and perserverance. their accusition of wealth in no way affected me or my persuit of success. As a matter of fact, I was able to piggy back on Gates's contributions to become successful in my career field.

The lower class poor in this country would be considered rich by may other conutries standards. And while I don't have the luxeries affordable to the billionare class, their having that wealth has not hurt me in the slightest. I don't see the issue.
I agree with most of this and I stated some of it in a post after the one that you quoted.  

I don't think the problem is at the top, I think it is at the bottom.  The fact that Musk/Bezos/Soros et al have BILLIONS of dollars doesn't hurt the poor in any substantial way.  

What I believe DOES hurt the poor is that they are MUCH poorer relative to the middle class than they were 50+ years ago.  I believe that there are a multitude of causes for this and a lot of them have little or nothing to do with government.  This list is not meant to be everything but it is a few of the big ones:

Knowledge Based Economy:
In a profession like mine (accounting), I am vastly more productive than I could possibly have been in a pre-computer world.  I don't have to crunch numbers and do calculations myself because the computer does all of that.  All I have to do it set up the spreadsheets and let it do the work.  This has made nearly all of the "knowledge based" professionals MUCH more productive than their predecessors from a few generations ago.  Engineers on here can do more because they don't actually have to draw the stuff themselves, they just have to set CAD up right and let it go.  

The massive productivity increases have been almost exclusively for knowledge based professions and hasn't accrued to more physical professions.  Ie, the guy who empties the trash cans in my office is still doing the same function that his predecessor did 50+ years ago, he isn't any more productive than his grandfather.  

It doesn't help that accountants and engineers already made more than janitors even 50+ years ago so they were already starting from a higher wage 50+ years ago but now they are vastly more productive while the janitors started off lower and haven't seen the same increases in productivity so they've just fallen further and further behind.  

Note that this one is technology-based so it really isn't something that government or social policy could dramatically impact.  

Knowledge Based Economy Pt II, impact on labor demand:
Pre-WWII the percentage of American workers with a college degree was in the single digits.  Today it is pushing 40%.  In spite of that, real wages for the college educated have gone up because the modern economy has a MUCH greater demand for educated workers.  Manufacturing processes that used to employ 100's of unskilled and semi-skilled laborers have been automated so that they now employ few if any unskilled or semi-skilled laborers.  However, the machines that handle the production need to be designed, managed, maintained, etc.  Most of the people doing the design/management/maintenance of those machines are college educated engineers and the like.  

In sum this change decreased the demand for unskilled and semi-skilled labor while increasing the demand for college educated workers.  

The other side of the equation, labor supply:
Immigration policy changed in the 1960's.  Additionally, the US became a welfare state.  Pre-WWII immigration to the US was exclusively people looking for greater opportunity.  Nobody came to the US for handouts in the 1920's because there weren't any handouts to be had.  Immigrants still come for opportunity but some also come for handouts.  Our system does an atrocious job of prohibiting immigrants here for a handout and it also allows and even encourages unskilled and semi-skilled immigration.  This into an economy that ALREADY has a surplus of unskilled and semi-skilled workers for technological reasons outlined above.  

Side issue but I want to mention it because it is related to this, disappearing middle-income jobs:
Think of an Accounting or Engineering firm.  50+ years ago they had high paid Accountants/Engineers and low-paid janitorial staff but they also had middle-income bookkeepers/draftsmen.  Functionally the Accountants/Engineers oversaw and directed the bookkeepers/draftsmen and the janitorial staff emptied the trash cans and cleaned the toilets.  Computers have mostly replaced the middle-income bookkeepers/draftsmen so instead of those firms having high, middle, and low earners, they now mostly only have high and low with an enormous gap in between.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #200 on: February 26, 2025, 02:36:07 PM »
One of the (probably few) things I agreed with Obama on was how he hammered on this.  He did draw attention to the very real, measurable, disparate outcomes between two-parent children and anything other than the two-parent household (single parent, raised by grandparents, foster care, etc.). 

I truncated your post, but in total those are the things that nobody will talk about, and I'm convinced they're foundational to the most significant problems, in a lot of areas, income prospects being only one.  I won't say there isn't anything politicians can do about it, but the vast majority of the shift would have to be cultural and sociological. 
One problem is that, from a sociological perspective it is effectively impossible to separate out the genetic impact of having smart parents from the environmental impact of being raised by smart parents.  There are a few random mix-up at the hospital type situations but not enough to get solid data.  

Realistically, intelligence IS at least partially heritable.  So for the kids there ARE two factors:
  • Having smart parents
  • Being raised by smart parents.  
As I referenced above, marriage has effectively become a luxury.  The well off (who are generally smarter and more well educated) marry and raise kids as families.  The poor (who are generally less smart and less well educated) hook up and raise kids as single parents.  

Part of the problem is that there isn't much genetic mixing of the smart and the not-so-smart anymore.  In today's world most college educated people marry other college educated people and have kids who will probably go to college while most HS dropouts hook up with other HS dropouts and have kids who will probably drop out of HS.  

MrNubbz

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #201 on: February 26, 2025, 02:44:49 PM »
 
Chappelle has an interesting take on this, he called Trump an "Honest Liar Recipient".
FIFY
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #202 on: February 26, 2025, 02:46:19 PM »
The income gap is a large and growing problem. I think it's pretty easy to see how it is impacting politics in the country (which is to say it is destabilizing). I'm curious what you guys think caused this and what can help the working poor catch back up to the 1950s/60s era gap. I have my own perspective, but I'm curious what yours is.
I laid out most of my theory in the last few posts.  I'm curious to see yours because I know you come at this from a very different political perspective.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #203 on: February 26, 2025, 02:51:25 PM »
FYI: one major impact on wealth in the United States in the 1950s and 1960s was that this country was the only industrialized nation that emerged from WWII with a fully functioning industrial economy. When it was time to rebuild the world you needed to buy from the U.S. to do it. That provided a major boost to our economic fortunes.
You know I'm a history buff and the US industrial dominance in the middle of the 20th century is astounding.  By the middle of the 1940's and for about a decade the US literally had half of global industrial production.  

That translated into Military Power.  In 1945 if there had been a massive naval battle of US vs everyone else, the US would have been so much more powerful than the rest of the world combined that it wouldn't have been close.  

During WWII the US not only fought wars in Europe and the Pacific simultaneously, we also provided massive amounts of aid to the British, Soviets, Chinese, and other allies and had enough capacity left over to research, develop, and utilize incredible advances in technology such as proximity fuses, strategic aircraft, and the atomic bombs.  Nobody else came CLOSE to us in these areas.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #204 on: February 26, 2025, 02:53:59 PM »
yup- and that is despite having very high marginal tax rates.
The high marginal tax rates are a bit of a red herring because while the US had a 90% top rate at mid-century they also allowed deductions for basically everything so nobody actually PAID that much.  

Still, I think that lower rates and less deductions are MUCH better for the economy than higher rates and more deductions because private individuals are then able to spend their time trying to build a better mousetrap rather than trying to build the same mousetrap but in a more tax-friendly way.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #205 on: February 26, 2025, 03:29:18 PM »
Realistically, intelligence IS at least partially heritable.  So for the kids there ARE two factors:
  • Having smart parents
  • Being raised by smart parents. 

I believe #2 is wildly more relevant than #1.  I don't believe there is a significantly wide IQ-distribution difference between population groups if the children are not stunted (neglected, not read to, never play games and puzzles with them, not verbally interacted with, etc.)

Give a set of good parents a child who was born to people considered low-intelligence, and give their biological child to the low-intelligence parents, and I believe almost every time, the kid you're saying is genetically climbing uphill will come out fine, intelligent, and ahead of the other one.  

If you have data that suggests otherwise, I'm open to it.  

SFBadger96

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #206 on: February 26, 2025, 05:06:18 PM »
You know I'm a history buff and the US industrial dominance in the middle of the 20th century is astounding.  By the middle of the 1940's and for about a decade the US literally had half of global industrial production. 

That translated into Military Power.  In 1945 if there had been a massive naval battle of US vs everyone else, the US would have been so much more powerful than the rest of the world combined that it wouldn't have been close. 

During WWII the US not only fought wars in Europe and the Pacific simultaneously, we also provided massive amounts of aid to the British, Soviets, Chinese, and other allies and had enough capacity left over to research, develop, and utilize incredible advances in technology such as proximity fuses, strategic aircraft, and the atomic bombs.  Nobody else came CLOSE to us in these areas. 
I'll do my best to add a little response to your other question (probably not today), but I don't disagree with any of this ^^^^
I watched a really good lecture by historians of Stalin, Churchill, and Roosevelt about their goals for WWII. The Roosevelt historian had a really interesting take on WWII: basically, Roosevelt absolutely believed in defeating Japan and Germany, but his goal was to do as little of the fighting as possible, instead, to fund the people doing the fighting. In that area, he largely succeeded (although the U.S. had to manage Japan mostly by itself). The war cost Russia a massive portion of its population, it cost the UK its empire (the UK spent approximately 1/3 of its total wealth on WWII), and it massively benefitted the economy of the United States--not just in the 1940s, but for at least another decade to come.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #207 on: February 26, 2025, 10:10:01 PM »
The concept is soooo hard for me to get my head around because this is the definition of a hand out.
But the reality of the connection between poverty and all of these social ills is also so strong that it is an interesting question whether the hand out is actually the more cost effective way of addressing these problems. Many people argue (and I'm no economist, but the argument has a logical feel to it), that such handouts would just result in inflation and wouldn't end up solving anything.
BUT, there are plenty of places that basically do this already: Alaska, for instance. The state generates revenue as a result of its natural resources that it then redistributes to all of its established residents (I'm sure there are some vagaries there that I'm not accounting for). So, at a national level, the concept is that our nation is so profitable that we can share a wealth dividend with everyone--or at least anyone who needs it (with, presumably, some kind of graduation built in).
IMHO, the graduation is the key to making this work.  The idea is to create an incentive to work so functionally it is a negative income tax.  

Say you set the threshold at $40K.  At that point you neither pay nor receive, then below that:
  • $30-40k you get $0.25 for each dollar under $40k so at $30K you'd be a $32,500.  
  • $20-30k you get $0.50 for each dollar under $30k so at $20K you'd be at $27,500.  
  • $0-20K you get $0.75 for each dollar under $20k so at $0K you'd be at $22,500.  
If it wasn't clear the above is an explanatory example, not @medinabuckeye1 's proposal.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #208 on: February 26, 2025, 10:14:22 PM »
Does anyone disagree that the wealthy will always wield more power than the middle class and the poor?

And does anyone disagree that the experiment of trying to actually eradicate private wealth was a collossuly awful failure?

However, the converse--the wealthy being so wealthy that they can effectively control everything to their benefit has a longer history than constitutional democracy does: they were called kingdoms. I wouldn't volunteer to go back to that system of government.

It's almost as if you need some balance. And if so, how do you create and maintain that balance?
Somewhere upthread I said that in some ways our goofy system has developed into a combination of the worst aspects of capitalism combined with the worst aspects of socialism.  

I agree about balance and I'll give what I think is a perfect example.  By far the worst nuclear accident occurred not here or in some other mostly capitalist system but in the near fully socialist Soviet Union.  Why?  I would argue that in our system where private entities run the nuclear plants and the government regulates them you have the crucial give-and-take.  In the Soviet Union the regulators were the publicly owned power company and Chernobyl happened there.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #209 on: February 26, 2025, 10:26:41 PM »
I believe #2 is wildly more relevant than #1.  I don't believe there is a significantly wide IQ-distribution difference between population groups if the children are not stunted (neglected, not read to, never play games and puzzles with them, not verbally interacted with, etc.)

Give a set of good parents a child who was born to people considered low-intelligence, and give their biological child to the low-intelligence parents, and I believe almost every time, the kid you're saying is genetically climbing uphill will come out fine, intelligent, and ahead of the other one. 

If you have data that suggests otherwise, I'm open to it. 
I'll try to look around for the data but I completely disagree with you here and what limited data I've been able to find supports that IQ is MUCH more important than environment.  

Data is extremely hard to find here because, as I mentioned upthread, it is nearly impossible to separate:
  • The genetic impact on IQ of having smart parents from
  • The environmental impact of being raised by smart parents.  
That said, people's outcomes correlate more closely with IQ than with how they were raised.  If you look at siblings the higher IQ kids do better than the lower IQ kids despite them having the exact same upbringing.  From a control standpoint the best cases for studies are twins raised apart and the few of those that I've ever seen also support that environment is not only less important than IQ but IQ is so dominant that environment is nearly irrelevant.  

I think that the impact of environment is mostly a time issue.  Ie, a smart kid with a poor environment will take a little longer to realize his or her potential but they will still get there eventually because they are a smart kid.  

One example:

There was a study done of the impact of HeadStart.  I'll look for the study but the general result was that it made a big difference in Kindergarten and early elementary performance but it had basically zero impact beyond around the middle of Elementary School.  I'll look for the study.  

Life is an IQ test.  Great/Terrible parenting can help/hurt a kid in the early grades but at the end of the day a kid with an 85 IQ simply isn't going to outperform a kid with a 115 IQ no matter how great the 85IQ kid's parenting and no matter how terrible the 115IQ kid's parenting.  

 

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