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Topic: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center

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bayareabadger

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #56 on: February 21, 2025, 03:42:17 PM »
Good points, and I was thinking more specifically of the presidential elections.  My grandfather was voting for guys like JFK and LBJ, and by then his actual beliefs were pretty much the antithesis of those democrats' platforms/ideology.

I’ve been slowly working through a long biography of LBJ. Fascinating figure, especially in the context of the old Democratic coalition.

It’s kind of wild it existed as a party at all.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #57 on: February 21, 2025, 03:54:21 PM »
Good points, and I was thinking more specifically of the presidential elections.  My grandfather was voting for guys like JFK and LBJ, and by then his actual beliefs were pretty much the antithesis of those democrats' platforms/ideology.
It is interesting that you noted 1976.  Presidential voting patterns changed well before Senate, HoR, and local voting patterns.  

Presidents couldn't really hide their ideology.  They ran nationally so Democrats were more liberal and Republicans were more conservative and the south started voting R in Presidential elections while it was still solidly Democratic in Senate/HoR elections.  

Back then all of the Southern Democrats from conservative districts ran as conservatives at home and some voted conservative in DC while others voted with their liberal northern Democratic colleagues.  The 1994 election changed all of that by nationalizing the platform.  That changed the dynamic and ever since ideological control of the HoR and Senate have been pretty much exactly tied to Partisan control.  

Checking in on your 1976 as compared to national patterns (defining "Southern" here as states of the former Confederacy):
  • 1960 the only Southern States that Nixon carried were Florida (lots of Northern transplants/retirees), Tennessee (border), and Virginia.  
  • 1964 Goldwater carried most of them only losing Florida, Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina
  • 1968 Nixon carried Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee.  The rest went for Wallace except for Texas which voted for Humphrey
  • 1972 Nixon carried everything not just in the South, McGovern only got Massachusetts and DC
  • 1976 The only Southern State that Ford carried was Virginia
  • 1980 Reagan won nearly everywhere but did lose Georgia (Carter's home state)
  • 1984 Reagan won everything except Minnesota and DC
  • 1988 Bush own all of the South and most everything else although he did lose in WV which is now solid R.  
  • 1992 The South roughly split with Clinton/Gore getting their home states, LA, and GA while Bush/Quayle got FL, AL, MS, SC, NC, and VA
  • 1996 Dole carried most of the south only losing FL, LA, AR (Clinton's home state), and TN (Gore's home state)
  • 2000 Bush got the whole south even winning in Gore's nominal home state of Tennessee
  • 2004 Bush got the whole south
  • 2008 McCain got all of the southern states except FL, NC, and VA
  • 2012 Romney got all but FL and VA
  • 2016 Trump got all but VA
  • 2020 Trump got all but VA and GA
  • 2024 Trump got all but VA


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #58 on: February 21, 2025, 03:58:28 PM »
I’ve been slowly working through a long biography of LBJ. Fascinating figure, especially in the context of the old Democratic coalition.

It’s kind of wild it existed as a party at all.
It really is.  It was more of a club than an ideological coalition.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #59 on: February 21, 2025, 03:58:43 PM »
Local voting patterns vs. national ones are interesting, and remain rather abstruse to me.

My home state of Louisiana votes Republican in presidential elections since I was old enough to pay attention to them.  But they frequently vote Democrat for governor.  And I've followed them enough to know the Republican and Democratic governors are largely in line with the broader, national ideals of their parties. 


MrNubbz

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #60 on: February 21, 2025, 04:00:33 PM »
My take:

--Parties are inevitable. 
Damn straight it's Friday let the week end begin
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

Cincydawg

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #61 on: February 21, 2025, 04:07:39 PM »
Is it too late for a nap?

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #62 on: February 21, 2025, 11:33:21 PM »

Also, people aren't loyal to parties forever.  I think that Trump is a symptom more than a cause but there has been a massive shift over the last ~20 years of white working-class voters from D to R.  I'm sure @OrangeAfroMan would tell us that they are voting against their own interests.  I've seen that argument from leftists but that isn't how THEY see it.  They have switched parties en-mass because, as they see it, the R's now more closely align with their interests and beliefs than the D's. 
Yeah, and I'd say that because a group of people who value $$$ (perhaps behind only anti-abortion), voting along ideology lines while getting screwed financially.

I couldn't cite it if they cared a lot about $$$ and voted $$$ or if they cared about a litany of other things above $$$.  But as it is, it's just obvious to me that they're being duped.  I don't want people to be duped.  

And many voted for the ultimate duper.  So.....yeah.  It's a sonofabitch.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #63 on: February 22, 2025, 08:03:03 AM »
Who is being duped over $$$?  How?

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #64 on: February 22, 2025, 07:29:00 PM »
Every poor southerner for the last 50 years.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #65 on: February 23, 2025, 07:53:08 AM »
You support a party that openly discriminates against your own demographic, the White male, and then you have the audacity to accuse other people in that demographic of voting against their own interests? 

The mental gymnastics are a sight to behold. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #66 on: February 23, 2025, 08:07:34 AM »
Every poor southerner for the last 50 years.

Is that because they value ideology over $$$$???


Cincydawg

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #67 on: February 23, 2025, 08:14:09 AM »
In my view, politicians promise a lot of stuff and deliver very little to the common folk.  Whether you vote for a D because he somehow promises you $$$ or an R because he promises you "ideology", don't take anything to the bank with either.  Most, nearly all, the impressions generated by both parties, to me, is imagery, marketing, not substance.

For example, Democrats claim they want to "tax the rich", but their proposed tax plans would be little to nothing of that.  Republicans claim they want tio "cut the size of government", same thing.  One of the biggest government guys in the past century was Nixon.

We actually have a very progressive income tax system as compared with most, or all, of Europe.  The tax revenue to be had really comes from the middle class, not the few billionaires out there.  If you confiscated every dollar from every billionaire in the US you'd have a tidy sum, once, and that sum would put only a small dent in the debt.  And then ... (I know no one yet has proposed that seriously, but taxing billionaires is very very difficult to achieve in the US.).


Cincydawg

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #68 on: February 23, 2025, 08:22:21 AM »
A good question is why Person A is "liberal" and Person B is "conservative".  Is it heritage?  Genetics?  Life experience?  Some of it is age, younger folks tend to be much more idealistic, and liberal.  They see wealth disparities and it seems obvious to take from "B" and give to "A".  Later in life they might possible get jaded on that, or start to understand the downsides to that basic equation.

Some of it is religious of course, or tradition.  A lot of it is where one lives, I think, folks in urban areas see a need for large government and central "control", if you will.  Rural folks are much more self sufficient.  Suburbanites are "in the middle" often as not.

I live in about as urban an environment as anyone here I suspect.  I'm OK paying for "street cleaners", which we have.  My taxes are rather exorbitant.  I moved here knowing that.  I'm OK paying for parks, rural folks don't need that.  They live in a "park".  I'm OK with heavy zoning ordnances here, rural folks are more itolated.  We have a local police force here in addition to the city police, I'm fine with that too.  Am I a "liberal"?  In some ways, probably so, in others not, I don't really like either term applied to me.  

Would I like to tax "billionaires"?  That depends on how, I haven't seen any serious legal proposals that would manage that realistically, I know Lix warren has proposed a wealth tax which has all sorts of problems (I don't think she's very smart about it).

I'm also familiar with Hauser's "Law", which isn't a law, but is a pretty remarkable trendline.  I also believe we're spending way too much for what we take in and that will end us, eventually.

FearlessF

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Re: Academic discussion (we'll try) of politics shift away from center
« Reply #69 on: February 23, 2025, 09:06:28 AM »
We actually have a very progressive income tax system as compared with most, or all, of Europe.  The tax revenue to be had really comes from the middle class, not the few billionaires out there.  If you confiscated every dollar from every billionaire in the US you'd have a tidy sum, once, and that sum would put only a small dent in the debt.  And then ... (I know no one yet has proposed that seriously, but taxing billionaires is very very difficult to achieve in the US.).
and if a group of politicians were ever serious about targeting billionaires with serious taxation, there would obviously be a strong reaction from billionaires.  They have the money and therefore the resources/influence to defend themselves.

I don't think there's large successful examples of taxing the wealthiest in other parts of the world or in history.  It's just not the way the world works.
Perhaps that doesn't mean it couldn't be done or we shouldn't try.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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