Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Doom and Gloom TyphonInc here to post:

I'm pretty concerned about this game. If MSU can get their run game / clock control offense moving, against  OSU's suspect defense; that's the best way to nerf OSU's high flying offense.

And I still don't trust our rookie quarterback when the game is on the line.

I think this will be a 17-24 type of game, and I hope the good guys can get the lead early; because if OSU has to come from behind, I'm not sure our happy feet overthrowing QB, and coach who forgets we a talented Running back can figure it out on the fly.

Glad this game is in the Shoe. I will personally vouch for ridiculous amounts of yelling that will lead to 2 unnecessary mistakes by the Spartan offense/special teams.

You are right once in a while in the same way that a broken clock is right twice a day.  You are ALWAYS doom and gloom so whenever the buckeyes underperform or lose you get it right.  

That said, if MSU wins or even keeps this close it will be a near-miracle.  This is a terrible match-up for the Spartans.  Their biggest deficiency on defense is pass defense and the Buckeye offense is built to pass to what is EASILY the nation's best WR corps and a QB who:

You don’t lead the nation in QBR after 10 games unless you’re a really, really good quarterback.

I believe that @Abba has the only possible formula for the Spartans:

I think the way MSU wins this game is to limit OSU's big plays to between the 20s and play good red-zone defense.  We saw Nebraska and Penn State hold the Buckeyes to a lot of FGs in the red zone.  Then when they have the ball, try to control the clock and limit the Buckeye offensive possessions.  If they can hold the Buckeyes to 26 like Nebraska did, then they can win the game.  I don't think they can win in a shootout.

The only way they can accomplish that is to play very soft coverage and keep EVERYTHING in front of them but if they do that I think Ohio State's offensive staff is good enough to figure out that:

• The Buckeyes can dink-and-dunk their way down the field by throwing easy, safe, and short passes, and
• We have a REALLY good RB so if MSU wants to drop eight to keep the WR's in front of them and limit big plays, he can probably get 5+ YPC.  

This formula "worked" for the Cornhuskers and Nittany Lions in the sense that they did better against Ohio State than anyone since Oregon but note that not only did both lose but it was the only two-score loss for both teams all year long.  

It would be surprising if Sparty played a great defensive game given their past performances. They do have some guys on the line, so anything is possible, but hard to predict that they will suddenly put up a wall on OSU's offense. But conversely, MSU is the best offense they have seen since Oregon, and they have some big play potential that other teams might not have. KW3 can penalize mistakes with huge runs, and OSU's defense makes a lot of mistakes. That's probably the area I'm most unsure about.

Any given Saturday, right? Anything can happen when conference foes match-up.

Having said that, the game is in Columbus and home field is typically very big in this conference- and this late in the season- you pretty much are what you are- and MSU gives up A LOT of big plays in the passing game- as evidenced by them being ranked dead last in pass defense. Ohio State conversely is ranked 4th in the nation in passing offense.

You do make a good point about KW3. He very well could go off. But will that be enough? MSU needs him to chew clock and pick up 5,6,7 yard runs a pop and not 0, 1,0 and then bam hit a 50 or 60 yarder. They need him moving those chains consistently and grinding OSU down and eating clock and keeping that OSU pass offense off and the field and away from exposing the pretty bad MSU pass defense.

And guess who leads the nation in quarterback pressures? None other than Michigan State

There is this though:

So basically, Michigan State's defense is pretty horrific but becomes absolutely excellent as soon as it gets to the red zone. Meanwhile, Ohio State's offense is otherworldly but forgets how to function in the red zone against good teams.

It's the NFL defense model.  Granted in the NFL it's because the QBs are so good, and with illegal contact, it's almost impossible to play defense.

With MSU it's more to cover up deficiencies on the back end, and to exploit college weaknesses.  They are going to bet that most college QBs aren't going to be good enough and/or patient enough to work their way down the field without taking a penalty or an incomplete pass somewhere along the way.  Then in the red zone, clamp down, and worst case scenario, you give up 3, and you also bet most kickers aren't going to be perfect.

Aidan O'Connell took that bet.

sounds like Walker may be dinged up- sounding like it's an ankle injury. this is bad for MSU. 

I think this will be a 17-24 type of game . . .

LoL!

Well you were pretty close to the Buckeyes score. . . . for the first quarter.