Good for UM it's not at night, but looks like a heavy lift to me, probably low scoring, I'll venture 20-16 Nitts.
Yeah, I don't know. I'm oddly confident in Michigan in this one. And believe me- I'm almost never confident in them in anything. Michigan is catching a break that the game is at noon. That's a way different crowd at noon then night. Happy Valley at night is a complete nightmare.
Penn State point blank just does not have a pass game like OSU's that can shred a secondary in half from every which way or a run game like MSU has with that stud tailback KW3- and that seems to be Michigan's achilles heel right now- their run defense. Their young LB's over-pursue and get caught with their pants down on misdirection run plays- which can lead to big gains vs teams that run the ball well. MSU has an elite RB- and he was able to expose their LB's and pop some long runs. I don't see Penn State being able to do this.
Penn State on the other hand has a run game that kinda sorta stinks. Penn State ranks tied for 122nd nationally with 29 runs of 10-plus yards. They rank 119th in the nation in yards per rush (3.2) and 117th in rush yards per game (107).
They key for Michigan will be to double Dotson at all times and not let him break the game open. Because he absolutely can. He is the one guy they have on offense that can flat out beat anybody man to man. If they aren't putting a safety over top on him and doubling him every play they are insane- because he has shown he is the one guy on that entire offense that can make a play on anybody consistently. Don't let him beat you- and you have a great shot at slowing down Penn State.
Conversely, Penn State's rush defense has been pretty bad giving up
THREE HUNDRED AND SIXTY rushing yards to freaking
Illinois at home in Happy Valley. Penn State is giving up just about 140 yards rushing a game. And Michigan wants to rush the football first and foremost. They will run, run, run right at Penn State.
And pretty much everyone has been able to run on Penn State- Wisconsin was able to run on them (would've had 200+ yards rushing if not for all Mertz' sacks), Illinois ran a party on them with 360 yards, Auburn ran for 190 on them, Ohio State ran for 160+ on them, shit even Iowa who can't run the ball ran for 110 on them. Really the only team that wasn't able to run wild on them was Maryland and Indiana- and well Maryland and Indiana kinda f*ckin suck.
Cade will have to play a mistake free game and not turn it over- he seems pretty good at that- Michigan will have to run the ball- they seem pretty good at that- and Michigan's DB's will have to double Dotson basically every snap and they will need their pass rush duo of Hutch & Ojabo to show up like they have been showing up all year long.