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Topic: 5+1+2 Model

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #42 on: December 07, 2021, 10:57:38 AM »
I agree and I'll add another reason.  Really, byes serve no function except to prepare the landscape for yet another expansion.  If we go to 12 then at least some of them will be playing up to three post-season games.  Why not go to 16 and have all of them play up to three post-season games?  I think if we went to 12 the expansion from there to 16 would be completely inevitable but if we stop at eight we MIGHT actually stay at eight to avoid an extra game.  Once you add that extra game for some teams there really isn't anything to keep you from adding it for the rest. 

With 16, they'd all be playing up to 4 post season games. Not 3. 

utee94

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #43 on: December 07, 2021, 10:58:29 AM »
With the minor quibble that I'd prefer the hosts to be the top-4 Champions rather than the top-4 teams I agree. 

I think your point about post-season fan-travel-fatigue is IMPORTANT and it is one of the reasons that I proposed home games in the first round.  I went to the BCSNCG at the Fiesta Bowl in 2003 when tOSU won the 2002 National Championship.  Back then the game before the Fiesta Bowl was the Michigan game in Ohio Stadium which I also attended because I had season tickets back then.  To see all the same things happen in the current set-up I'd have to attend:
  • The Game against Michigan. 
  • The B1GCG in Indianapolis. 
  • The CFP Semi-Final. 
  • The CFP Championship. 

We've already doubled it and tripled the number of games NOT at home.  It isn't just fan-travel-fatigue, it is also fan-spending-fatigue. 


For sure.

rolltidefan

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #44 on: December 07, 2021, 11:33:15 AM »
I get that and in theory I agree but in practice I think compromises will have to be made.  Additionally, even within the P5 there is so little high-end inter-league play that we don't really KNOW much.  We are making assumptions based on statistics that are pretty far removed. 

I do realize that there will eventually be a 4-loss B1G-W Champion or a 4-loss ACC-whatever Champion that has a great day in their CG and gets in but I guess I'm ok with that. 
i think that is a compromise. conf champs auto qualify, IF they are ranked respectably. im not ok with a 4 loss whoever in just cause they lucked up. especially if it's over a team like uga who's had a phenomenal season but lost to another top team in the one game that guarantees them a spot.

in 2018 we could have had 7-5 pitt, 9-4 nw, 10-3 texas, 10-3 utah/wash, 12-1/13-0 uga/bama, 13-0 ucf as the auto qualifiers. that leaves 2 picks from:
12-1 bama or 11-2 uga
12-1 clemson
11-2 osu
10-2 mich
11-2 oklahoma
10-2 wazzu
12-0 notre dame

all of which are more deserving than at least 3 of the 6 above, probably 4.

utee94

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #45 on: December 07, 2021, 11:38:24 AM »
i think that is a compromise. conf champs auto qualify, IF they are ranked respectably. im not ok with a 4 loss whoever in just cause they lucked up. especially if it's over a team like uga who's had a phenomenal season but lost to another top team in the one game that guarantees them a spot.

in 2018 we could have had 7-5 pitt, 9-4 nw, 10-3 texas, 10-3 utah/wash, 12-1/13-0 uga/bama, 13-0 ucf as the auto qualifiers. that leaves 2 picks from:
12-1 bama or 11-2 uga
12-1 clemson
11-2 osu
10-2 mich
11-2 oklahoma
10-2 wazzu
12-0 notre dame

all of which are more deserving than at least 3 of the 6 above, probably 4.

So win your conference.  You had your chance.

I don't have any problem with the scenario you outlined. 

Edit: And that's really an extreme case, there's pretty much zero chance that the underdog is going to win every single CCG.  

rolltidefan

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #46 on: December 07, 2021, 11:43:03 AM »
So win your conference.  You had your chance.

I don't have any problem with the scenario you outlined.

Edit: And that's really an extreme case, there's pretty much zero chance that the underdog is going to win every single CCG. 
that's true, very extreme.

and some chances are less challenging than others.

we'll just agree to disagree i guess. i just don't want to see crappy teams in over good ones. and we will.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #47 on: December 07, 2021, 11:48:40 AM »
I don't think that's true.  I think Baylor and Oklahoma State would be at the top of either the PAC or the ACC right now.  And BYU will be added in a couple of years, and they've just completed a 5-0 sweep of the PAC teams on their 2021 schedule, including beating PAC champ Utah.
I was curious so I looked, here are each P5 conferences' teams by ranking from the CBS 1-130 rankings and then I also included the top-16 G5's.  For purpose of this exercise I included OU and TX as SEC teams and BYU as a B12 team:


I'm  not sure what to do with Notre Dame.  They aren't a G5 but they also aren't fully IN the ACC.  They do have a scheduling deal with the ACC so maybe it would be fair to include them there, I don't know.  

Top third of the league (three for the B12, four for P12, five for everybody else) average ranking:
  • 8.67 B12
  • 9.8 SEC
  • 12.2 B1G
  • 22.6 ACC
  • 26.25 P12

Middle third of the league (three for B12, four for P12, ACC, and B1G, six for SEC):
  • 37.67 SEC
  • 39 B1G
  • 45.33 B12
  • 55 ACC
  • 63.25 P12
Bottom third of the league (three for B12, four for the P12, five for everybody else) average ranking:
  • 76.4 SEC
  • 80.66 B12
  • 84.6 B1G
  • 85.4 ACC
  • 99 P12

Ok, you are right.  

utee94

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #48 on: December 07, 2021, 11:49:01 AM »
that's true, very extreme.

and some chances are less challenging than others.

we'll just agree to disagree i guess. i just don't want to see crappy teams in over good ones. and we will.
I fundamentally disagree that a team that beats a higher-ranked team is "crappy."  If that other team really was better, they had the chance to prove it on the field, and failed.  If they can lose to a crappy 4-loss suckbutt in their own conference, then my assumption then becomes they were going to lose to any of the "better" 0-loss and 1-loss teams that actually did make it into the CFP.  Why put a team into the CFP that didn't beat the 4-loss suckbutt from the other division?  The logic doesn't follow.

Everyone says "decide it on the field" right up until their preconceived notions of who is "better" are challenged.  That's total shite.

utee94

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #49 on: December 07, 2021, 11:54:21 AM »
I was curious so I looked, here are each P5 conferences' teams by ranking from the CBS 1-130 rankings and then I also included the top-16 G5's.  For purpose of this exercise I included OU and TX as SEC teams and BYU as a B12 team:


I'm  not sure what to do with Notre Dame.  They aren't a G5 but they also aren't fully IN the ACC.  They do have a scheduling deal with the ACC so maybe it would be fair to include them there, I don't know. 

Top third of the league (three for the B12, four for P12, five for everybody else) average ranking:
  • 8.67 B12
  • 9.8 SEC
  • 12.2 B1G
  • 22.6 ACC
  • 26.25 P12

Middle third of the league (three for B12, four for P12, ACC, and B1G, six for SEC):
  • 37.67 SEC
  • 39 B1G
  • 45.33 B12
  • 55 ACC
  • 63.25 P12
Bottom third of the league (three for B12, four for the P12, five for everybody else) average ranking:
  • 76.4 SEC
  • 80.66 B12
  • 84.6 B1G
  • 85.4 ACC
  • 99 P12

Ok, you are right. 

LOVE that your laser-focused mind performed this exercise.  Seriously, that's great.

I've actually seen similar performed on B12 forums, which is why I was confident in my assertion. 

In general, people really don't understand how bad the ACC and PAC have been over the past decade or so.  And we used to be able to sort of excuse the ACC because Clemson was performing so well, but now even that is gone.

Oh, and Cincy is also joining the New B12, right?  Wonder what it looks like with them in the mix?
« Last Edit: December 07, 2021, 12:06:14 PM by utee94 »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #50 on: December 07, 2021, 11:57:34 AM »
i think that is a compromise. conf champs auto qualify, IF they are ranked respectably. im not ok with a 4 loss whoever in just cause they lucked up. especially if it's over a team like uga who's had a phenomenal season but lost to another top team in the one game that guarantees them a spot.

in 2018 we could have had 7-5 pitt, 9-4 nw, 10-3 texas, 10-3 utah/wash, 12-1/13-0 uga/bama, 13-0 ucf as the auto qualifiers. that leaves 2 picks from:
12-1 bama or 11-2 uga
12-1 clemson
11-2 osu
10-2 mich
11-2 oklahoma
10-2 wazzu
12-0 notre dame

all of which are more deserving than at least 3 of the 6 above, probably 4.
Honestly I think the fundamental answer to your point is this:
Edit: And that's really an extreme case, there's pretty much zero chance that the underdog is going to win every single CCG. 
It is a REALLY extreme hypothetical that DIDN'T ACTUALLY happen.  

In fact, Clemson beat Pitt, Ohio State beat Northwestern, and Oklahoma beat Texas.  With the 5+1+2 the actual teams in would have been:
  • #1 Bama, SEC Champ
  • #2 Clemson, ACC Champ
  • #3 Notre Dame, at-large
  • #4 Oklahoma, B12 Champ
  • #5 UGA, at-large
  • #6 tOSU, B1G Champ
  • #8 UCF, G5
  • #9 Washington, P12 Champ

The highest ranked team left out would have been #7 Michigan and I'm totally fine with that, LoL.  


rolltidefan

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #51 on: December 07, 2021, 12:52:07 PM »
I fundamentally disagree that a team that beats a higher-ranked team is "crappy."  If that other team really was better, they had the chance to prove it on the field, and failed.  If they can lose to a crappy 4-loss suckbutt in their own conference, then my assumption then becomes they were going to lose to any of the "better" 0-loss and 1-loss teams that actually did make it into the CFP.  Why put a team into the CFP that didn't beat the 4-loss suckbutt from the other division?  The logic doesn't follow.

Everyone says "decide it on the field" right up until their preconceived notions of who is "better" are challenged.  That's total shite.


that's just demonstratively false. transitive property doesn't work in sports, especially cfb, and you know it. you're turning a whole season into 1 game. why put a team with 1 loss in the playoff over over one with 5? i'd rather reward a whole season's worth of good play and wins and 1 devastating loss, vs a whole season worth of bad losses and 1 miraculous win.

Honestly I think the fundamental answer to your point is this:It is a REALLY extreme hypothetical that DIDN'T ACTUALLY happen. 

In fact, Clemson beat Pitt, Ohio State beat Northwestern, and Oklahoma beat Texas.  With the 5+1+2 the actual teams in would have been:
  • #1 Bama, SEC Champ
  • #2 Clemson, ACC Champ
  • #3 Notre Dame, at-large
  • #4 Oklahoma, B12 Champ
  • #5 UGA, at-large
  • #6 tOSU, B1G Champ
  • #8 UCF, G5
  • #9 Washington, P12 Champ

The highest ranked team left out would have been #7 Michigan and I'm totally fine with that, LoL. 


right, it didn't happen then and it'll be an extreme outlier. but it will happen. very, very likely not to the extent in my post ,but it will happen.

even if it was just 7-5 pitt, that still puts in them instead of at least 1 of 12-1 clemson, 12-1 bama of 11-2 uga, 12-0 notre dame. even 10-2 mich and wazzu would be better.

utee94

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #52 on: December 07, 2021, 01:30:22 PM »
that's just demonstratively false. transitive property doesn't work in sports, especially cfb, and you know it. you're turning a whole season into 1 game. why put a team with 1 loss in the playoff over over one with 5? i'd rather reward a whole season's worth of good play and wins and 1 devastating loss, vs a whole season worth of bad losses and 1 miraculous win.
right, it didn't happen then and it'll be an extreme outlier. but it will happen. very, very likely not to the extent in my post ,but it will happen.

even if it was just 7-5 pitt, that still puts in them instead of at least 1 of 12-1 clemson, 12-1 bama of 11-2 uga, 12-0 notre dame. even 10-2 mich and wazzu would be better.
I'm not talking about the transitive property at all.  Quite the opposite, I'm talking about on-field results directly between two competitors. 

You're the one looking at hypotheticals, the teams you just "believe" must be better.

I have no interest in that.  If you can't win your CCG, you don't deserve to be in the playoff.

And even so, the at-large picks could still be used to put in, say, an undeserving Alabama team that didn't win its conference championship, yet everyone is just certain still needs to be in the playoff. That case is still covered for a couple of teams.  It's just not covered for ALL teams.

rolltidefan

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #53 on: December 07, 2021, 02:10:08 PM »
I'm not talking about the transitive property at all.  Quite the opposite, I'm talking about on-field results directly between two competitors.

cool, so we're only concerned about a single competition, not the 12 others during the season?

utee94

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #54 on: December 07, 2021, 02:41:06 PM »
cool, so we're only concerned about a single competition, not the 12 others during the season?
8-9 of those 12 others determine who gets into the conference championship game.  

And the CCGs are just another level of playoff.

It baffles me that people who are okay with the idea of a playoff in general-- where we know the preconceived "best" team doesn't always win-- balk and scream bloody murder at the thought of a team that wins its CCG (which is just another playoff game) should then advance to the next level of competition.  It's remarkably inconsistent.

So yeah, I'm absolutely good with the position I continue to hold.  100% golden.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 5+1+2 Model
« Reply #55 on: December 07, 2021, 02:42:43 PM »
FTR, Cincy, Houston and UCF are all joining the Big 12 along with BYU

 

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