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Topic: 5+1+2

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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #168 on: December 05, 2018, 03:07:32 PM »
The Giants were not the best team that year. You know what we call them, to this day?
"Super Bowl Champions"
Was it such a travesty?
If you think the obvious and only best way to determine a champion is to give the "best team from the whole season" the big trophy, then yes, it is. If you are biased towards the March Madness model or love the Giants/hate the Pats, then no it's not.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #169 on: December 05, 2018, 03:13:08 PM »
this is not true. 2016 psu had 2 losses (when osu got in over them) and in 2017 osu had 2 losses (when bama got in over them).
an 11-1 non-champ has only gotten in over 2 loss champs. and both of those had losses to bad teams and a 30+ point loss.
unless you're counting nd, but they're 12-0 not 11-1.
Correct. I was thinking that Bama got in over OSU, but forgot about the Oklahoma loss.
Again, you want to value the regular season, but OSU gets punished for scheduling a difficult game. I recognize they also had a bad loss on top of it, but had they been playing an FCS team that week like Mercer, for example, instead of a cross-division conference game, maybe they'd have avoided that Iowa loss. 

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #170 on: December 05, 2018, 03:15:15 PM »
The larger the number of teams allowed in the playoff, the less important regular season games become.  It is a direct correlation.  Some of these ideas are akin to making the college football regular season about as important as the college basketball regular season.


NO THANK YOU
I almost always subscribe to this theory, but I think for CFB that the graph of "respecting the regular season" versus "size of CFP" that 4 is linear overall but curvy when zoomed in. And 4 is a specific exception. For "respecting the regular season," for is a local mimimum. Both 2 and 6 are better. 
Not that we have to be correct or that you have to agree, but @ELA and I have been arguing this since July at the latest. I'm going to leave out the reasons for now because between this thread and all the others, I have a bit of "typing the same thing fifty ways" fatigue at the moment. 
That probably means I shouldn't have responded in the first place, but your comment was important, something I allllmost agreed with (if it weren't for nuance that seems pivotal for the entire thread), so I wanted to jump is as a bookmark for later. If you seem curious and ask, and no one else has spoken up in between, I'll lay out some bullet points tonight or tomorrow.

Kris60

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #171 on: December 05, 2018, 03:18:48 PM »
Correct. I was thinking that Bama got in over OSU, but forgot about the Oklahoma loss.
Again, you want to value the regular season, but OSU gets punished for scheduling a difficult game. I recognize they also had a bad loss on top of it, but had they been playing an FCS team that week like Mercer, for example, instead of a cross-division conference game, maybe they'd have avoided that Iowa loss.
And they got rewarded the previous season for beating Oklahoma.  It gave them an extra ranked win over Penn St they wouldn’t have had if it were Bowling Green.  Those games are high risk/high reward.  But you aren’t going to get credit for simply scheduling them.  You get credit for winning them.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #172 on: December 05, 2018, 03:24:43 PM »
If you think the obvious and only best way to determine a champion is to give the "best team from the whole season" the big trophy, then yes, it is. If you are biased towards the March Madness model or love the Giants/hate the Pats, then no it's not.
I think the best way to determine a champion is to have a playoff with a predefined structure such that teams know before the season what the rules of inclusion are and thus control their destiny as to whether they are included. 
If you want to give it to the "best team from the whole season", you don't need a playoff. But it's by nature subjective.
Let's look at 2017, because it's the most recent NFL season we have on record:
  • Pats: 13-3
  • Steelers: 13-3
  • Eagles: 13-3
  • Vikings: 13-3
Who's the best team? I mean sure, in 2007 when the Pats were 16-0, it's somewhat easy. But when you have 32 teams and only 16 games, and teams play the teams within their own division most often and across division and outside of their conference much less often, how do you decide? 
The entire point of a playoff is that there isn't enough of a dataset to decide who the "best" team is on the field during the regular season. So the regular season is a play-in, and the champion is determined by a play-off. 
Sometimes it results in a team that isn't the "best" team being declared the champion. But with fair and objective entry criteria, nobody can say their championship was unearned. 

rolltidefan

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #173 on: December 05, 2018, 03:28:36 PM »
Hard to say because they played a different set of teams. Without playing similar schedules, it's still subjective to who you think had the hardest road. From what I've read, nobody thinks that UCF is better than Florida because Florida was only 9-3 where UCF was 12-0.
just looked it up and pitt played a really good schedule, so this might not be a good argument for me, lol. but i think it's close enough to merit the records as proof enough.
pitt played clemson and nd, while uga only played bama. that's really impressive for pitt (in this scenario, pitt is 1-1 here), whereas uga lost but was really tight in their 1 game.
but uga's has more of the next tier with #10 uf, 11 lsu and 14 uk, while pit had #8 ucf (undefeated) and #12 psu) in that range. uga went a pretty good 2-1 in that stretch (all 3 games back-2-back-2-back, btw), but lone loss was blowout. pitt lost both in blowout.
and last good opp for each were comparable (#20 'cuse and #23 mizzou). each won their game fairly comfortably.
both played a crap fcs team and won handily.
and both rounded out their schedule with meddling teams, pitt going 6-1, uga 7-0.
so in summary, both lost to elite teams close, but pitt has a win too while uga was a really close game. both played a couple good teams, but uga had a good showing and record, while pitt was abysmal. both played decent or crap games for the rest, but uga has no bad losses here, while pitt has 1.
i'd probably put pitt schedule as slightly tougher, but marginally. while uga's record vs their almost equal schedule is much better, even with pitt upsetting clemson (again, in this hypothetical setup). pitt's one luck up win would be enough to overwrite their pretty pathetic record vs every other good team they faced.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #174 on: December 05, 2018, 03:28:55 PM »
And they got rewarded the previous season for beating Oklahoma.  It gave them an extra ranked win over Penn St they wouldn’t have had if it were Bowling Green.  Those games are high risk/high reward.  But you aren’t going to get credit for simply scheduling them.  You get credit for winning them.
True, the but committee's actions reveal that they're less concerned about quality of wins or strength of schedule as they are number of losses. They've put multiple 1-loss non-CCG participants in the CFP. They've never put a 2-loss conference champion in. 
So it's more important to schedule OOC wins than it is to schedule high-profile games. 

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #175 on: December 05, 2018, 03:30:54 PM »
If you want to give it to the "best team from the whole season", you don't need a playoff. But it's by nature subjective.
THIS ^^^^

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #176 on: December 05, 2018, 03:31:09 PM »
Bwar: If there are 4 NFL teams at the top and we dislike the idea of tiebreakers or voting one to the top, I never had a problem with the "Crown them all solution." Some seasons the championship gets shared. Other times, it's outright.
Many fans hate that. However, college football is now drunk on their hate. To the point that we're stuck on a How To Find The Unanimous Champ bender since the end of 1997. It's still not resolved. And shit's getting jaundiced. With a side of hepatomegaly.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 03:33:22 PM by Anonymous Coward »

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #177 on: December 05, 2018, 03:36:44 PM »
just looked it up and pitt played a really good schedule, so this might not be a good argument for me, lol. but i think it's close enough to merit the records as proof enough.
pitt played clemson and nd, while uga only played bama. that's really impressive for pitt (in this scenario, pitt is 1-1 here), whereas uga lost but was really tight in their 1 game.
but uga's has more of the next tier with #10 uf, 11 lsu and 14 uk, while pit had #8 ucf (undefeated) and #12 psu) in that range. uga went a pretty good 2-1 in that stretch (all 3 games back-2-back-2-back, btw), but lone loss was blowout. pitt lost both in blowout.
and last good opp for each were comparable (#20 'cuse and #23 mizzou). each won their game fairly comfortably.
both played a crap fcs team and won handily.
and both rounded out their schedule with meddling teams, pitt going 6-1, uga 7-0.
so in summary, both lost to elite teams close, but pitt has a win too while uga was a really close game. both played a couple good teams, but uga had a good showing and record, while pitt was abysmal. both played decent or crap games for the rest, but uga has no bad losses here, while pitt has 1.
i'd probably put pitt schedule as slightly tougher, but marginally. while uga's record vs their almost equal schedule is much better, even with pitt upsetting clemson (again, in this hypothetical setup). pitt's one luck up win would be enough to overwrite their pretty pathetic record vs every other good team they faced.
I see what you are saying, but it is still ultimately subjective. If we want to subjectively crown champions, we should go back to the old system where teams went and played in the bowl games that were affiliated with their conferences and then vote on the champion afterwards. 

But this notion that a group of people sit in a room and tell us who the best 4 are is just another way of doing that. Sure, it gives the top 4 a chance to prove it, but it leave everyone else out. And when you have ESPN talking heads telling us who the better teams/conferences are, they add too much unneeded influence into those discussions. 

If there were clearly defined criteria going into the season that every team knew before the first kickoff of the season, they can then plan and play to achieve it. And in the end, there would be no complaining because they knew what it took going in. Just as my earlier example, Michigan is not complaining that Ohio State represented the B1G East in the B1G Championship game because they won based on the predefined criteria. It didn't depend on a group of people sitting in a room to decide it.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #178 on: December 05, 2018, 03:47:31 PM »
Bwar: If there are 4 NFL teams at the top and we dislike the idea of tiebreakers or voting one to the top, I never had a problem with the "Crown them all solution." Some seasons the championship gets shared. Other times, it's outright.
Many fans hate that. However, college football is now drunk on their hate. To the point that we're stuck on a How To Find The Unanimous Champ bender since the end of 1997. It's still not resolved. And shit's getting jaundiced. With a side of hepatomegaly.
Well at least you're consistent :)
IMHO the pre-BCS system was what it was. Yes, it was just a beauty pageant, but everyone knew that. That's why people came up with the acronym MNC - mythical national championship. 
The problem is that once you go away from that, going "halfway" to a real playoff doesn't solve the problem. The people who had problems with it being an arbitrary beauty pageant up front still have just as much of a problem, because now instead of the choice of the champion being a beauty pageant, the choice of the BCSCG/CFP participants is still a beauty pageant, but it's masquerading as a "true" unanimous champion. It's trying to get to a real championship, but it's failing because the selection criteria are arbitrary and changing at the whims of whatever the committee wants at any given time.
So that's my problem. You either have an objective system or you don't. We still don't, but people are treating it like it's sacrosanct in inviolable. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #179 on: December 05, 2018, 03:54:36 PM »
**("no 3+ or 4+ loss teams" or "no teams ranked lower than 12th" -- though I do prefer exclusionary terms that are not dependent on something as subjective as polls or committees)
You know, in theory I like the "no 3+ or 4+ loss teams" as a solution, because a) that's objective and b) obviously those teams rarely have any real chance of winning the whole thing.
However, I think the downside to that is that it will cause teams to try to schedule as weak OOC as possible. In addition, I like the 9 conference games over 8 conference games, and once you cap the number of losses before being eligible for the CFP, conferences will try to avoid any semblance of SOS in order to ensure their champion doesn't get excluded from the playoff.
Purdue had a really hard schedule this year. Only one non-P5 opponent on the entire slate. Two P5 OOC. 9 [obviously] P5 in conference. And it hurt our final result. Although we lost to our MAC opponent, I'll bet that if we had one FCS team, two MAC teams, one P5 OOC, and only 8 conference games, we'd be a lot more likely to be 8-4 right now than 6-6. 
Is that the incentive that we want to create?

Kris60

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #180 on: December 05, 2018, 04:50:23 PM »
True, the but committee's actions reveal that they're less concerned about quality of wins or strength of schedule as they are number of losses. They've put multiple 1-loss non-CCG participants in the CFP. They've never put a 2-loss conference champion in.
So it's more important to schedule OOC wins than it is to schedule high-profile games.
That isn’t true and again I’ll use Auburn last year as an example. They had two losses and were number 2 in the country and 2 full spots ahead of undefeated Wisconsin because of great wins and a tough schedule.
A big reason why Baylor found itself at 5 instead of 4 in 2014 was a Downy  soft OOC schedule.
I think a big reason why the committee didn’t put a 10-2 Wazzu in a NY6 bowl is they played no one OOC. So they found themselves behind 3 loss LSU and Florida.
Scheduling light or scheduling hard can hurt or help you. Pros and cons to each.

Roaddawg

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Re: 5+1+2
« Reply #181 on: December 05, 2018, 05:15:37 PM »
Screw Georgia!  They lost BOTH of the biggest games on the schedule this season.  They should not be considered, if you are that damn good, win your games!  UCF won without the most important player on their team when it mattered most, if UGA can not win the games it needs to, then sorry about your luck Kirby.  The same could be said about Michigan this year.  In my opinion, Michigan has just as much right be in the conversation if you are going to bring up UGA.  

 

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