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I certainly could be wrong (which is why I don't gamble on sports) but this feels like a game where the points, even at 12.5 are nearly irrelevant.  I feel like the two most likely outcomes are a blowout win by Ohio State or a close win by Indiana.  

This is giving me some confidence vis-a-vis the tOSU/IU game:


Two things to point out WRT Indiana:

• This illustrates just how weak their B1G schedule is.  Two-thirds of it is the worst six teams in the league.  
• Indiana's relative performance has been great against the dregs but not so good against decent opponents.  

On point #2:

• Against UMD the Hoosiers were almost as good as Oregon.  
• Against Northwestern the Hoosiers were almost as good as Ohio State.  
• Against Michigan State the Hoosiers were better than tOSU and a LOT better than Oregon.  
• Against Nebraska the Hoosiers were a LOT better than tOSU.  
• Against UCLA the Hoosiers were better than Oregon and a LOT better than PSU.  

But then look at the games against better opponents:

• Against Michigan the Hoosiers were nowhere close to Oregon and, in fact, they weren't even as good as Illinois and Washington.  
• Against Washington the Hoosiers were nowhere close to PSU and, in fact, were not as good as Iowa.  

My prediction:
Ohio State flusters and frustrates the Hoosiers early, knocks the wind out of their sails, and rolls to an easy win.  

No.  See my post between yours and this.  Analyzing IU's results on the performance table put a different perspective on it for me and I don't think they can keep up with Ohio State. 

Right. So, then, take Ohio State and the points. If you don't think Indiana can keep it close, even giving 12.5 shouldn't bother you... 

I know you say you don't bet on sports, and obviously I'm not telling you that you should. And of course as an OSU fan, I also think your own fandom can cloud judgment. 

But if you WERE to bet on it, which way would you lean? OSU -110 giving 12.5 points, or Indiana +360 straight up? Do you think either bet is positive EV?

(Personally, if I bet on sports, I'd be taking OSU -110 giving 12.5 points. I think the most likely outcome is an OSU blowout. But my anti-fandom with IU could be clouding my judgment.)

I'd take the Hoosiers and the 12.5

I can easily see the Hoosiers playing well enough to keep it within 12

of course this Husker is influenced by those two matchups

Right. So, then, take Ohio State and the points. If you don't think Indiana can keep it close, even giving 12.5 shouldn't bother you...

I know you say you don't bet on sports, and obviously I'm not telling you that you should. And of course as an OSU fan, I also think your own fandom can cloud judgment.

But if you WERE to bet on it, which way would you lean? OSU -110 giving 12.5 points, or Indiana +360 straight up? Do you think either bet is positive EV?

(Personally, if I bet on sports, I'd be taking OSU -110 giving 12.5 points. I think the most likely outcome is an OSU blowout. But my anti-fandom with IU could be clouding my judgment.)

As you implied, even if I did bet on sports, I'd avoid betting on games involving my team or the evil heathen cheaters because my fandom/anti-fandom clouds my judgement. 

Setting that aside, if I had to bet on this game I'd take tOSU and give the points. 
The money-line bet on Ohio State is just unappealing because you get back so little. 

I *THINK* that the most likely outcome is for Ohio State to win by more than 12.5. 

If I were a serious gambler I *might* hedge it with a bet on the IU moneyline. 

Ie, if I bet $100 on tOSU -12.5 and $30 on Indiana at the +360.  That way the results for me would be:

• Ohio State wins by 13 or more:  I win $100 on the tOSU bet and lose $30 on the IU bet, I'm up $70. 
• Ohio State wins by 0-12:  This one REALLY sucks for me, I lose both and am out $140. 
• Indiana wins:  I'm out $2.  I lose the tOSU bet and have to pay $110 but I win the IU bet and get $108. 

The most anticipated Ohio State vs Indiana game not involving hoops ever. 

As I see it, the game is MUCH more important to the Hoosiers than it is to the Buckeyes.  Part of that is brand but a BIG part of it is that Ohio State has played a MUCH better schedule.  Even if the Buckeyes lose this, they still own a road win over #4 Penn State and their 1-point road loss to #1 Oregon isn't particularly damning. 

For Indiana their home win over Washington is the ONLY game they've played all year against a team with a non-losing record and the Huskies are only 4-4.  Also, Washington is undefeated at home and winless on the road so beating them outside of Seattle hasn't proven all that difficult this year. 

For Indiana, obviously a win would be HUGE but even a close loss would help.  As long as they "look like" they belong on the field with the Buckeyes, they should make the CFP at 11-1 but if they get smoked, I think their schedule and helmet will keep them out.  Thus, the Hoosiers have to at least keep this competitive. 

The history:
Indiana hasn't beaten Ohio State in a LONG time.  The Hoosiers won two straight beating Earle Bruce's last tOSU team in 1987 and John Cooper's first team in 1988.  They tied the Buckeyes in Bloomington a couple years later, in 1990 but since then, 0-29 by an average score of 38-15. 

The Hoosiers are 12-80-5 all-time against the Buckeyes and as crazy as this sounds, that actually understates Ohio State's dominance of this series.  The first six games in the series were played from 1901 through 1913 which was Ohio State's first year in the league.  Those six games were five IU wins and a tie.  Since then: 80-7-4 in favor of the Buckeyes. 

From 1914 through last year the Hoosiers are 0.099 against the Buckeyes but in some good news, they are actually better in Columbus (6-50-3) than Bloomington (1-30-1). 

Just a few weeks ago you claimed that Indiana would get in at 11-1 with a blowout loss to the Buckeyes and a one point win over everyone else. 

As you implied, even if I did bet on sports, I'd avoid betting on games involving my team or the evil heathen cheaters because my fandom/anti-fandom clouds my judgement. 

Setting that aside, if I had to bet on this game I'd take tOSU and give the points. 
The money-line bet on Ohio State is just unappealing because you get back so little. 

I *THINK* that the most likely outcome is for Ohio State to win by more than 12.5. 

If I were a serious gambler I *might* hedge it with a bet on the IU moneyline. 

Ie, if I bet $100 on tOSU -12.5 and $30 on Indiana at the +360.  That way the results for me would be:

• Ohio State wins by 13 or more:  I win $100 on the tOSU bet and lose $30 on the IU bet, I'm up $70. 
• Ohio State wins by 0-12:  This one REALLY sucks for me, I lose both and am out $140. 
• Indiana wins:  I'm out $2.  I lose the tOSU bet and have to pay $110 but I win the IU bet and get $108. 

Got it. Makes sense.