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Hawks beat M/tOSU last time during daylight hours

Hmm...

When Iowa shocked OSU 55-24 in 2017, yes that was a 2:30 start

When Iowa shocked Mich 14-13 in 2016, pretty sure that was a night game.

Also going way back, when Iowa shocked #3 PSU 24-23 in 2008 that was a 2:30 start.  Although that game was late in the year, and by the time of the game winning kick, it was pitch black outside, so that game is kind of remembered as a night game, even though technically it was not.

Start time is 3:00 p.m. Central Time on Fox.
Iowa's defense has been masterful at take-aways. Leads the nation in turnover margin at +2.4. Penn State is 7th in the nation at turnover margin at +1.5.
Iowa's defense is 12th at YPG, and Penn State's defense is 34th at YPG.
Penn State is 2nd in scoring defense at 10.8, and Iowa is 3rd at 11.6.
Iowa is 34th in points per game at 33.2; Penn State is 63rd at 28.0 points per game, a surprising comparison statistic.
Iowa has a real good punt and kick returner, and top notch punting (44 yards per punt) whereas Penn State is (36 yard per punt) and field goal kicking (Iowa 88.89%) vs. (Penn State 71.43%).
According to Sagarin, Iowa is 10th in strength of schedule, and Penn State is 21st. And, I believe SOS is misleading because Sagarin seems to rank SOS as of the date the teams played rather than what it is today, so I am going to say Penn State's SOS is arguably somewhat stronger.
No predictions here, but homefield is a slight advantage for Iowa. But, as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!"
Penn State is 10-4 in games played in Iowa City, whereas Iowa is 8-7 in games played in Pennsylvania, so throw out homefield advantage; it is visitingfield advantage.

I do not believe the bold part to be correct.

Penn State is averaging 48.5 yards per punt.

A few of the Penn State stats are off...

PSU scoring defense is 12 points per game.  It should be noted, however, that 21 of those points came in garbage time against the third string, which would be a 4 ppg swing.  Iowa doesn't appear to have many points scored against them in garbage time.  This is probably because Iowa has better depth than PSU.

Penn State is only scoring 30 points per game.

I don't really have time to dig into the stats like I'd like...

night games at Kinnick are where MNC hopes go to die. Penn State is catching a break that it's not a nighter.

Kinnick is an evil place, it just gets more evil the later it gets!

PSU scored 16, 28. and 24 against real teams.  They won each obviously, but it isn't an offensive juggernaut.  Iowa scored 34, 27, and 51 against perhaps lesser quality opponents.  This should be interesting.

I'm expecting a final score in this range...



Take the under.

I'm hoping for a Meteor Strike