Author
Topic: ELA October 19 Breakdown
(Read 3662 times)

ELA · « **on:** October 16, 2019, 04:53:33 PM »

#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0, 6-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-3, 1-4)

8:30 (Fri) - Evanston, IL - BTN

I'm sure this is exactly what Jim Delany was going for when he sold the Big Ten's soul for Friday night games. Moving his conference's showcase program to BTN, on a Friday night, buried under a Yankees game, and...well, it being Friday night against a team so boring they make Michigan State look like Washington State. The last time these two met, a Big Ten title was on the line, so maybe they were hoping for a hyped rematch? Northwestern is so far from where they were a year ago that I honestly forgot until I was nearly done with this writeup that it was a Championship Game rematch. Really, all coach Ryan Day can hope for out of his squad in this one is for his boys to come out and look sharp. They had a home game, under the lights, with their special black alternates, against a ranked Michigan State team, but with a bye week last week, this Friday night game in Evanston is their only real football in the 20 days between that game and when #6 Wisconsin comes calling next week. The Northwestern defense perhaps has a chance to at least hold Ohio State within striking distance, if Ohio State makes mistakes? The Wisconsin offense took care of the supposed elite defenses of Michigan and Michigan State, but Northwestern actually did a solid job containing them. Northwestern has already lost three games (Stanford, Wisconsin and Nebraska) where they only allowed one touchdown. Problem is the dismal Northwestern offense allowed a total of three touchdowns over those games. So not only does Northwestern's defense has to keep doing what it's doing, the Northwestern offense has to not just start doing something, but stop giving away points. Against Wisconsin, the Wildcats were able to hold Taylor somewhat in check and Coan wasn't able to beat them. Ohio State simply has too many weapons to try and shut down just one part of it. And this Ohio State defense is unlike anything we've seen in Columbus since the Jim Tressell years. It's the improvement there (#4 in SP+ Defense) that has led to most computer naming the Buckeyes as the best team in the country. This feels like a punt of a breakdown, and I'm a little bummed that this is what we have in mid-October, but we saw a better version of Northwestern, in Michigan State, take a stab at the Buckeyes, seemingly not even play that poorly, and still come up way short. I just don't see how Northwestern scores close to enough points to even hang with a C Ohio State effort.

OHIO STATE 38, NORTHWESTERN 7

Purdue Boilermakers (1-2, 2-4) at #23 Iowa Hawkeyes (1-2, 4-2)

NOON - Iowa City, IA - espn2

Well, I was quite a bit off on both of these teams last week. Iowa discovered that Kinnick is no match for the rare underperforming Hawkeye offensive line, and Purdue suddenly discovered how to play defense. Iowa's defense has to be frustrated after holding Michigan and Penn State to a combined 27 points, only to lose both games after their offense only mustered one score in those two games combined, a late prayer answered by a hell of a catch. Their next challenge, actually looks like it might be the challenge we thought it would be before Purdue lost Sindelar and Moore. Jack Plummer, who had looked in way over his head to date, suddenly threw for over 400 yards on 80% completions against Maryland. So is Plummer really figuring things out, or is the Terps passing defense, which ranks last in the Big Ten in ypg allowed, ypc allowed, and second worst in opponent completion percentage, just that awful? Probably equal parts both, but he was aided by a little emergence of a running game. Now 127 yards on 3.4 ypc, which is what Purdue tallied, would actually just be good for 12th and 13th in the Big Ten respectively, but considering they were averaging 50.8 yards on 1.9 ypc, it actually signifies a massive improvement. But Iowa's defense is legit, ranking #6 in SP+ Defense. I expect to see a Plummer closer to the Penn State version than the Maryland version. And for all the hand wringing about the Iowa offense, it appears that the issue is the line, and that the skill players can flourish when they have time, and over the past two games Iowa has allowed 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. Michigan and Penn State's defensive lines rank in the top 10 in a number of metrics, with Michigan #8 in sack rate, and Penn State #1 in line yards. Purdue? They rank outside of the top 100 in a number of the same categories, and what production they are getting from up front is all coming from George Karlaftis. Nathan Stanley gets back on track when he's not running for his life, and a Purdue line, surrendering the most sacks per game, while Jack Plummer struggles to find time behind his offensive line, which is surrendering the most sacks per game in the conference. The way to beat an Iowa defense that surrenders the fewest first downs per game in the Big Ten is with the big play, and Plummer won't have the time to do that, or the weapons to break the short plays open.

IOWA 28, PURDUE 12

#6 Wisconsin Badgers (3-0, 6-0) at Illinois Fighting Illini (0-3, 2-4)

NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN

Wisconsin brought their A game and blew out Michigan, before sleepwalking the following week against Northwestern, and needing two defensive touchdowns to win by 9 in a game that was 7-3 late in the third, where Northwestern actually outgained Bucky. Last week Wisconsin looked stellar in blowing out Michigan State, so is a hiccup game coming this week with a season defining trip to Columbus to follow? Illinois actually showed some life last week offensively, and while nobody ever is happy about an injury, as far as the team goes, maybe Brandon Peters' concussion turns out to be what's best. Matt Robinson didn't exactly light the world on fire, but against a very good Michigan defense, who had given up a combined 3 points over 11 quarters, Robinson led the Illini on four consecutive scoring drives, to lead Illinois from 28 down to within 3 midway through the 4th quarter. From the final drive of the first half on, Robinson was 12-18 for 155 yards and a touchdown, which coincided with Lovie Smith decided with ending the Isaiah Williams experiment. So can Illinois generate anything against a Wisconsin defense that ranks #2 nationally in SP+, #1 in scoring (4.8), #1 in total (173.7 ypg/2.9 ypp), #1 in passing (129.0 ypg/4.1 ypa), and #1 in rushing (44.7/1.9 ypa, which is a dismal #2 per attempt, behind Penn State). As good as Michigan's defense is, Wisconsin's is better. And Wisconsin can actually run the ball. Michigan had been struggling mightily to run the ball, with 2.4 ypa against Army; 2.1 ypa against Wisconsin; 3.4 against Rutgers; and 3.6 against Illinois. Then they exploded for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns on 6.1 ypa against an Illini defense that is surrendering a conference worst 5.9 ypa in Big Ten play. Last week Michigan State dared Jack Coan to beat them, and he did. But you know Jonathan Taylor is ready to get another 100 yard streak going. He could go for 300 fairly easily in this one, but I doubt he'll play anywhere long enough to.

WISCONSIN 45, ILLINOIS 7

#20 Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0, 6-0) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-4, 1-5)

3:30 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

For those who are questioning Minnesota's contender status...well, keep waiting. I'm truly out of ways, after years, of finding different ways to say Rutgers is awful, across the board, at everything. Their most recent stat, getting shut out at Indiana, giving the Scarlet Knights back to back shutouts in Bloomington to follow up their 41-0 loss in 2017. The last time prior to that Indiana shut out an FBS opponent? Michigan State in 1993. So let's go with the fact that any Big Ten opponent losing to Rutgers would be a massive upset at this point, and focus fully on Minnesota. The Gophers are leading the Big Ten in conference games at 7.6 ypp, fueled by an uber efficient passing attack that is only putting the ball in the air 17 times a game, but at a 13.1 ypa clip, putting them 6th in the Big Ten in passing ypg at 226.3. For comparison, right behind them is Michigan State, who is needing more than twice as many attempts per game to do so. Nationally, only Wyoming and four triple option teams (the service academies and Georgia Southern) are throwing the ball less often than Minnesota. This was always the plan, but the Gophers struggled early to run the ball, but against Illinois and Nebraska the last two weeks, they've gotten it going, which is why 4 straight one possession victories has given way to back to back division wins by a combined score of 74-24. The Rutgers defense has been, let's say, not horrible, #68 in SP+. But with an offense this bad, that's not nearly enough to register.

MINNESOTA 42, RUTGERS 9

Indiana Hoosiers (1-2, 4-2) at Maryland Terrapins (1-2, 3-3)

3:30 - College Park, MD - BTN

Maryland getting a beat up Purdue team, on the heels of their get right game against Rutgers, and then rolling into an Indiana game at home, looked primed to put themselves in great position to get back to their first bowl game in three years. Instead, what happened in West Lafayette has to put major concerns out there for Maryland's defense going forward. Jack Plummer, who was ok against Minnesota, but had a sub 10 QBR against TCU and Penn State, threw for over 400 yards on over 10 ypa on over 80% completions, with 3 touchdowns, and no picks against a Terp defense that now ranks last in Big Ten games in both completion percentage allowed and passing ypg allowed, #13 in passing ypa allowed, and #12 in defensive pass efficiency. And just to remind you 1/3 of Maryland's Big Ten games to date have been against Rutgers. You ignore the statistical glitch that is the Rutgers passing game? Dead last across the board in completion percentage (76.5%), passing ypg (420.5), passing ypa (10.4) and pass efficiency (273.6). Now he has to face Michael Penix Jr. who is playing as well as any quarterback in the conference right now. In two games since returning from injury, he has completed over 70% of his passes, for 284 ypa, with 6 touchdowns and just 1 pick. But why am I still slightly hesitant? Those two games were against Rutgers and a Michigan State defense that gave up everything short to take away the deep ball. That why Penix only had 8.6 ypc in that game, but he showed good touch on the deep ball, nearly hitting a pair of them into double coverage. So while Penix hasn't necessarily showed the full arsenal against a non-Rutgers opponent, right now I'm not convinced Maryland's defense is much better, if better at all, than Rutgers. But Maryland at least SHOULD have is an offense. The problem is Josh Jackson was ineffective against Penn State, and got injured against Rutgers, forcing him to miss the Purdue game. But as far as experienced backups go, aside from Indiana with Peyton Ramsey, you could argue that perhaps no Big Ten team was better equipped to suffer injury at the position than Maryland. Tyrrell Pigrome had seen action in 23 games across his first three seasons in College Park, starting 4. Instead he completed just 53% of his passes, on 5.6 ypa, with a pair of interceptions, for his lowest QBR in a game where he attempted more than 5 passes since a 62-3 loss to Ohio State in November of 2016 as a freshman. He did add 107 rushing yards, but 61 of them came on one touchdown run. He actually seemed to get less comfortable as the game progressed. After that touchdown run to make it 20-14 with 9 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, the Terps only had one drive the rest of the game longer than 5 plays. We've seen enough if Piggy across 4 years to know he's better than what we saw Saturday, and he also was unable to get any balance from the run game. Anthony McFarland Jr. continues to be slowed by an ankle injury, and only got 4 carries for 4 yards against Purdue. Returning home, if McFarland plays, and is effective, I think we'll see a much better Terp offense. But I don't know how they hold Penix to under 350(?) yards. Hoosiers get their first non-Rutgers conference road win since 2015.

INDIANA 28, MARYLAND 26

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#16 Michigan Wolverines (3-1, 5-1) at #7 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0, 6-0)

7:30 - State College, PA - ABC

I'm not sure how a bunch of people putting on white tee shirts is so intimidating, but for whatever reason, it is. Penn State has the prime time white out, with Gameday in town, in a game where the winner is squarely in the Big Ten championship race, and the loser has people questioning whether they have the correct coach to get them to Ohio State's level. Michigan's offense has been the one getting all of the questions, because they have the supposed all-everything transfer quarterback, and spent the whole offseason selling the coaching upgrades of speed and space. I think it's fair to question Penn State's offense though. Yes, they put up some gawdy numbers against the likes of Idaho, Buffalo, Maryland and Purdue; but against the two defenses they've played with a pulse, being Pitt and Iowa, they scored 17 in each. Problem is that 17 on the road, in Kinnick, is more than Michigan scored against Iowa at home. The challenge for Michigan is going to be blocking Penn State's front, a front that has been in the backfield all season, and leads the nation in rushing ypa defense. This is for a Wolverines offensive line that went from a supposed strength into struggling to figure out the new scheme. Patterson seems to be the best getting out of the pocket, and getting the ball out quickly. So maybe out of necessity, Gattis will actually scheme to Patterson's strength. Granted Michigan's defense seems to be hitting its stride, after getting blasted by Wisconsin, with the emergence of a couple of freshmen in Cam McGrone and Dax Hill. The Nittany Lions abused Michigan's defense in this game two years ago by creating mismatches for Saquon Barkley. Obviously nobody on the Nittany Lions roster is going to be Barkley, but even in terms of skill set, I don't see a lesser version of him. Ricky Slade is the leading reciever among the running back group, and among the split backfield, he has been easily the least effective. So if he's in the game, it's probably not to run the ball. Penn State will try to get the ball into KJ Hamler's hands in the middle and simply let him make plays, which he does. They need to try and force the ball more to tight end Pat Friermuth, who exploded against Buffalo, but has not been targeted nearly enough since. I don't envision a repeat of 2017, when Nittany Lions players were running free all over the field, but I think this Penn State defense is better than that one, particularly up front. They generated a ton of pressure last week, and against a worse offensive line in Michigan, if they are able to consistently get to Patterson with 4, which I think they will, eventually too much good field position starts to snowball.

PENN STATE 31, MICHIGAN 17

mcwterps1 · « **Reply #1 on:** October 16, 2019, 04:54:45 PM »

IND 41
UMD 7

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** October 17, 2019, 01:18:18 PM »

Friday night/Saturday noon games in

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** October 18, 2019, 12:04:44 PM »

Afternoon games in

847badgerfan · « **Reply #4 on:** October 18, 2019, 04:11:24 PM »

I didn't make a thread for the Badger game, so I'll put this here. From the Wisconsin State Journal (WSJ).

**************************

"I think the biggest thing is just understanding that complacency kills," tailback Jonathan Taylor said. "Whenever you get complacent, that's when things start to fall off. People get relaxed. That's why we say, 'no switch,' just to understand that you've got to always be ready."

Even if UW has beaten Illinois in 13 of the last 14 meetings, including nine in a row?

"We treat everybody the same, no matter who it is," Hicks said. "Like Chris Orr was saying, they’re a nameless, faceless opponent. They might as well come out with no colors on and no logos because we’re going to treat everybody the same. The motto of the whole season, 'no switch.' We’re not turning off the switch for anybody."

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** October 18, 2019, 04:12:35 PM »

All picks in

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #6 on:** October 18, 2019, 06:35:32 PM »

Quote from: ELA on October 18, 2019, 04:12:35 PM

All picks in

Thanks for doing this every week, ELA. These are the best previews out there, IMO.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #7 on:** October 18, 2019, 07:18:08 PM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on October 18, 2019, 06:35:32 PM

Thanks for doing this every week, ELA. These are the best previews out there, IMO.

Hell yes they are.

We (ELA, me and Drew) just start needing to make a lot of other people aware of this joint. Capitalize on our investment, and all that.

SuperMario · « **Reply #8 on:** October 19, 2019, 01:24:57 PM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on October 18, 2019, 06:35:32 PM

Thanks for doing this every week, ELA. These are the best previews out there, IMO.

Couldn’t agree more. I don’t have a ton of free time to keep up like I used to, but these breakdowns are a great resource.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #9 on:** October 19, 2019, 03:51:20 PM »

ELA is fired.

ELA · « **Reply #10 on:** October 19, 2019, 04:41:39 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 19, 2019, 03:51:20 PM

ELA is fired.

I'll take my severance

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.

Topic: ELA October 19 Breakdown

ELA

ELA October 19 Breakdown

mcwterps1

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

847badgerfan

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

847badgerfan

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

SuperMario

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

847badgerfan

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA October 19 Breakdown