As I see it, the remaining contenders can be grouped as follows:
In no matter what:
- 12-0 #1 Georgia: Even if they lose badly to Bama they'll be a 12-1 CG participant with a loss to #1. Other than Bama, the only teams even with an argument to pass them would be potential 12-1 Champions Michigan and Oklahoma State but that is it. They are in no matter what happens in Atlanta.
Teams that are (almost certainly) in with a win and (almost certainly) out with a loss:
- 11-1 #2 Michigan: With a win they are the #2 seed behind the UGA/Bama winner. With a loss they'd be an 11-2 non-champion and have almost no chance.
- 12-0 #4 Cincinnati: With a win it looks like they are in although a 12-1 B12 Champion OkSU would make that interesting. With a loss they are obviously out.
Teams that are in with a win and need some help with a loss:
- 11-1 #3 Alabama: Most 11-2 non-champions would have no chance but Bama's losses would be to #1 and another ranked (barely) team. I don't think they'd be in but it isn't out of the question.
Teams that need a win and possibly some help:
- 11-1 #5 Oklahoma State: With a win they'd be a 12-1 B12 Champion but unless the committee saw their win over #9 Baylor as substantially more impressive than Cincinnati's win over #21 Houston or Bama looked BAD against UGA they might find themselves on the outside looking in.
Teams that are not playing and need help:
- 11-1 #6 Notre Dame: The Irish don't get a chance to impress the committee with a CG but they also don't have to worry about losing a CG so they need help. They want Georgia to run Bama out of the stadium, Iowa to beat Michigan, Houston to be Cincy, and Baylor to beat OkSU. They need at least two of those three and Baylor beating OkSU might not help because it is entirely possible that the hypothetical 11-2 Baylor Bears would leapfrog them anyway on the strength of their better wins and League Title. Worse, Houston beating Cincy might not help either because while it would drop the Bearcats that would also make ND's loss worse. I'm honestly not sure that there is a path for the Irish.
Teams that are playing and need a LOT of help:
- 10-2 #9 Baylor: With a win they'd be an 11-2 League Champion and obviously pass #5 OkSU in the rankings. They'd also leapfrog Ole Miss and tOSU. The question would be Notre Dame. Would the Bears leapfrog Notre Dame? If they did they'd have a chance, if not probably not.
- 10-2 #13 Iowa: With a win they'd be an 11-2 League Champion and obviously pass #2 Michigan in the rankings. They'd also leapfrog BYU, MSU, Oregon (even if the Ducks win), Ole Miss, and Ohio State. Would the Hawkeyes leapfrog Notre Dame? If they did they'd have a chance, if not probably not.
Teams that have no viable path the the playoff:
Everybody else starting with 10-2 #7 Ohio State has no chance because even if there are a slew of upsets that only gets the Buckeyes to #5 at best and everybody not mentioned behind them would still be behind them with the possible exceptions of Baylor, Oregon, and Iowa.
The problem for Notre Dame and all the teams behind them that are NOT playing in a CG is that Michigan, Alabama, and OkSU are all 11-1 and playing in a CG. Even with losses each of those teams would be only 1/2 game worse than ND and they'd be 1/2 game better than tOSU (and also Ole Miss, MSU, BYU, OU). The committee historically has not punished teams much for losing their CG's. Furthermore, if Michigan or OkSU lose it will be to Iowa/Baylor and those teams are both currently 10-2 so I'm confident that upsets in either the B1GCG or the B12CG would NOT help the Buckeyes and I don't even think that upsets in either or both would help the Irish. On the contrary, I think that upsets in either the B1GCG or the B12CG or both would cause ND to drop because the winner would jump them and the loser would stay ahead of them.
What Cincy needs:
- They need to beat Houston, obviously.
- A BIG win would help because they lessens the chance of OkSU jumping them.
- A BIG win by UGA over Bama would help because that would probably propel the Bearcats over the Tide.
- A Baylor win over OkSU would ice it.
What OkSU needs:
- They need to beat Baylor, obviously.
- A BIG win would help because that MIGHT be enough to jump them over Cincy who is playing a lesser CG opponent.
- A BIG win by UGA over Bama would help because that would probably propel the Cowboys over the Tide.
- A Houston win over Cincy would ice it.
What Notre Dame needs:
- A BIG win by Georgia over Bama would help because it MIGHT be enough to jump them over Bama.
- They are probably better off if Michigan beats Iowa because I'm not sure that they'd pass Michigan anyway and they might get passed by the Hawkeyes if Iowa does win.
- A Houston win over Cincy helps because it MIGHT move Cincy out of the way but even then the Bearcats would have a 1/2 game better record and a H2H win over the Irish and on top of that even if the Irish did jump the Bearcats that still presents problems vis-a-vis other teams because it gives them a worse loss.
- They are probably better off if OkSU beats Baylor because I'm not sure that they'd pass OkSU anyway and they might get passed by the Bears if Baylor does win.
The Irish *MIGHT* get in over Cincy and Bama if both of them lose but I'm not sure.
Best-case-scenario for everybody else:
- Georgia runs Bama out of the stadium and drops the Tide out. Ok, but the Tide are still a 12-2 CG participant with losses to #1 and #25. I don't think Ohio State or any team behind Ohio State would jump them with the possible exceptions of Baylor or Oregon. Baylor is irrelevant here because they would simply replace OkSU ahead of the Buckeyes.
- Iowa beats Michigan and drops Michigan out. Ok, but the Wolverines and Hawkeyes would then both finish 11-2 so I don't think that Ohio State or any team behind the Buckeyes would leapfrog the Wolverines and what is worse is that Iowa would probably leapfrog the up to about where Notre Dame is with the win anyway and that is ahead of Ohio State so this really doesn't help the Buckeyes or anybody behind them.
- Houston beats Cincinnati and drops the Bearcats out. This one is pretty clear-cut.
- Baylor beats OkSU.
If all of that happened I think the final rankings would be something like this:
- 13-0 Georgia, SEC Champion
- 11-2 Bama
- 11-2 Iowa, B1G Champion
- 11-2 Baylor, B12 Champion
- 11-2 Michigan
- 11-2 OkSU
- 12-1 Cincy
- 11-1 Notre Dame
- 10-2 Ohio State
- 10-2 Ole Miss
- 10-2 Michigan State
Oregon would either be an 11-2 P12 Champion ranked #9 (with tOSU, Ole Miss, and MSU each dropping a spot) or a 10-3 non-factor.
This crazy scenario actually drops ND, tOSU, and Ole Miss two spots each because they get leapfrogged by the upset winners of the B1GCG and the B12CG but do NOT pass the upset losers.
