| Iowa City has been none too pleasant for Michigan football over the past two decades, losing 4 straight, going back to 2005, and 5 of 6, back to 2001. Granted, during the 4 game home win streak, Iowa was favored twice, and the two times they were underdogs, it was by one score. The big concern with Michigan this year was the front seven, and while its a one game sample size (the first three games could not mean less), the concerns seem validated. The Maryland offensive line bullied Michigan, and opened running lanes all over the place. They did a solid job, last drive against a prevent defense not withstanding, against the passing attack, but if Michigan can't win a trench battle, there are few teams that should concern them more than Iowa. That said, this isn't just a bland Iowa offense, it's a bad Iowa offense. They couldn't run on Rutgers last week, and thankfully Spencer Petras had his best game of the season, low bar acknowledged, and Iowa finished +3 in turnovers. The fact that J.J. McCarthy is facing his second hostile road environment, the first being in limited duty in East Lansing last year, when he fumbled the ball twice, means that is not off the table. But Rutgers doesn't have the offense to survive 3 turnovers, particularly when they generate none themselves. Even if, worst case scenario, Michigan turns the ball over 3 times, I have to believe their secondary can bail them out a few times, and unless those turnovers are actually scored upon, I'm concerned just how much Iowa can do, even with a short field. It was certainly a little surprising how well Maryland ran the ball against Michigan, but it was certainly not surprising that Maryland did move the ball. Iowa hasn't moved the ball on anyone, even Rutgers. And while Kinnick is certainly nasty to opposing teams, thanks to Big Noon Kickoff (which for the record, I like), it certainly doesn't give home teams the same type of edge that have fueled a number of those wins for the Hawkeyes. I think Iowa's run game works, and they generate more offense than expected, but unless their defense can score, those turnovers to touchdowns, turn into turnovers to punts. J.J. McCarthy probably makes a couple of mistakes in his first road start, but he also makes enough throws to beat an Iowa defense that hasn't faced a legit NFL quarterback since??? Josh Allen in the 2017 opener. |
