My guess is UGA would be a 3-4 point favorite over Michigan, so maybe 13 over TCU, and 7 over Ohio State, about. The committee is not apparently influenced much by betting lines. I find betting lines "interesting" (though I don't bet) and insightful, but of course often or always nearly wrong. I agree with the notion that it stays close for a half plus and then UM wears them down. I don't know how deep the TCU defense is but you really have to sub a lot at this level of play.