Removing cupcakes, on a ypp basis, Wisconsin's defense leads the B1G at 4.18 ypp allowed. Iowa is #7 with 5.09 ypp allowed.
Interestingly, Wisconsin's ypp allowed numbers barely change when I remove cupcakes. As expected, most everyone else's gets worse. However, their ypp allowed definitely ticks up appreciably against Notre Dame and UCLA.
I'm surprised to see Iowa not only at #7, but that 5.09 ypp allowed mark is higher than I would've guessed. I'm reminded that while I like ypp the best out of raw stats for several philosophical reasons, raw stats should probably generally just be a jumping off point to more context and advanced metrics.
I never heard of
Pro Football Network until just this morning. I don't know what their formula entails and how reliable they are, but it appears to be an attempt at something similar S&P+/FEI/F+. They rate Wisconsin's defense rather lower in the B1G, but very close together with Iowa, the Hawkeyes being #7 and Wisconsin #8.
I can't see S&P+ anymore since Bill Connolly took his toys and went home (behind a paywall), but speaking of FEI, I see that FEI defensive ratings thinks highly of Wisconsin's defense, being #2 in the B1G and #6 nationally. It does not like Iowa quite as much, with the Hawkeyes coming in at #6 in the B1G and #14 nationally.
Still, almost anything I can find to go by, these are likely to be very tough outs for offenses (*coughcoughQUARTERBACKScoughcough*) not expected to do much. In the FEI offensive rankings, Wisconsin is #52 nationally and Iowa is #76.
Game is at Iowa, but Wisconsin has the stingier defense on paper, and a marginally better offense.
Should be a grinder.
So of course one of them will win this 31-3.