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Iowa 21, Wisconsin 20

I can't explain why but I just feel like Iowa is going to dominate this game,  which is a rare feeling for me.   

Iowa probably played its worst game of the season against Minn offensively.  Just kept fumbling away opportunities.  Yes, credit goes to the Minn defensively, that is true. And yes, Wisc has a really good defense.   But I have a feeling Iowa will come out with something to prove.  

Iowa 27, Wisc 13

I can't explain why but I just feel like Iowa is going to dominate this game,  which is a rare feeling for me. 

Iowa probably played its worst game of the season against Minn offensively.  Just kept fumbling away opportunities.  Yes, credit goes to the Minn defensively, that is true. And yes, Wisc has a really good defense.  But I have a feeling Iowa will come out with something to prove. 

Iowa 27, Wisc 13

I think this is more likely than a Wisconsin win, but it would be fair to point out that I'm struggling with extreme dislike of Wisconsin's head coach which may make it difficult for me to be objective about this year's Badger team.

One thing I'm certain of: the Badgers' offense is not built to come back from a two-score deficit. (Now watch that very thing happen.)

I'm amused that amongst the three-team rivalry that is Iowa-Minnesota-Wisconsin, all three look very similar on paper so far this season: strong defense, particularly against the run, and run-focused offense with questionable quarterback play. Michigan fits this bill, too, as it happens.

I have more faith in Iowa because of its recent track record, but no one here expects their quarterback to throw for 300 yards. I see turnovers as the primary deciding factor in a low-scoring game, just as it was last week in Minneapolis. Bottom line, a team on the wrong end of a 4-1 turnover margin will lose this game. That's why Iowa lost last week. Same way Minnesota beat Michigan (3-2 turnover margin, notwithstanding the Pick-6 Lindsay threw).

I'm curious to see how willing Iowa will be to throw the ball after a 3-INT performance. Wisconsin appears to have adjusted to its quarterback's inability to make good passing decisions by simply not throwing the ball in tough games.

And I still expect Iowa to win in the roughly 13-6 range.

Iowa doesn't need to throw for 300. They need to:

not throw a pick inside the 10 (3 or 7 points) - Hecklinski
not underthrow a WR on a sideline vert when he has the DB beat by two steps (3 or 7 points) - Hecklinski
not underthrow a WR on a post when he has the DB badly beat (100% 7 points) - Hecklinski
not miss a TE skinny post by five yards when he has his man beat by three steps and no safety over the top (3 or 7 points) - Brown
not badly(!) miss multiple 5-10 yard passes throughout the game that would have forced UM to make adjustments - mostly Brown, some Hecklinski

The redzone pick addresses both issues, but even at a 1:3 turnover ratio, Iowa should have won comfortably.

Just announced that Iowa's top RB, Kamari Moulton, is done for the season.

At 90.2 ypg, he was #2 in the Big Ten.

Might be enough for me to flip it from 1 point Iowa win to 1 point Wisconsin win

Moulton is ok as a RB but he was never going to be all Big-Ten.   Iowa's 2nd string RB has been hurt too so he also may not play.  But Iowa has some young talent on the depth chart.  This might be their chance to have a break out game, as long as they don't fumble,  which young RB's tend to do.

 Brown is considered  the more safe but boring choice. 

Kid was meant for Iowa.  Roll with him.