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Why does the simulation hate M and OSU so much this season?

(not that I'm shedding any tears)

I think a lot of it, in both cases, is SoS.  

In @ELA 's simulation the Buckeyes end up 8-4 and unranked heading into the bowls but note that the losses are (from ELA's simulated pre-bowl rankings):

• AT #1 Indiana
• vs #3 Oregon
• AT #11 USC
• AT #13 Iowa

In this simulation the Buckeyes also have a road win over #8 Texas.  Per this simulation the Buckeyes played FIVE games against top-13 teams with four of those five on the road.  That is brutal.  

I think a lot of it, in both cases, is SoS. 

A closer look at the in-conference portion of the schedule for Ohio State in this simulation:

Per the simulation, as I see it, the conference breaks down into three groups:
Teams that finished above 5-4:

• 9-0 Indiana
• 9-0 Oregon
• 6-3 Iowa
• 6-3 Penn State
• 6-3 USC

Teams that finished roughly .500 (5-4 or 4-5):

• 5-4 Ohio State
• 5-4 Maryland
• 5-4 Wisconsin
• 4-5 Michigan
• 4-5 Washington
• 4-5 Illinois
• 4-5 UCLA

Teams that finished below 4-5:

• 3-6 Nebraska
• 3-6 Northwestern
• 3-6 Rutgers
• 2-7 Minnesota
• 2-7 Michigan State
• 1-8 Purdue

Then look at which teams the Buckeyes play:
Teams above 5-4:

• The Buckeyes play four of the five with three of those on the road.  

Teams roughly .500:

• The Buckeyes play three of the seven, all at home.  

Teams below 4-5:

• The Buckeyes play two of the six, one home and one away.  

It appears to me that the league is trying to maximize their TV ratings by having the projected good teams more-or-less all play each other.  The upside of that is of course the $$$$ that flow from the TV contract but the downside is that somebody has to lose each of those games.  Ohio State ends up 5-4 despite being perfect against teams that finished 5-4 or worse and perfect at home against teams that finished worse than 9-0.  

Yup, I see those 60-40 games as near tossups obviously, that would suggest a 4-5 point spread.  Two of those means a likely loss.

OSU has the highest payroll in CFB. Brutal or otherwise, they should win every game.

That’s a bit of a lazy take for you Badge. 

I hate that this conversation about CFB payroll even exist and that that’s where we are right now.

The team with the highest payroll has never won every game or the national championship, or really come super close.

I’m pretty confident, Ohio Ohio State does not have the highest pay payroll, but they are up in the top few.  what’s interesting with these schools is their “philosophy” I’m how they’ll spend the money.

Ohio State has lost a lot of five star recruits too much higher bitters because they generally don’t want to spend their money on improving talent. They spend a lot of money on people who are already in the program and have produced.

Of course there are exceptions to that but they’re very rare.

but again, don’t hate the player, hate the game.

If Cignetti was the OSU coach, they would win every game they play.

Of course, in my mind he is the only truly elite coach still standing.

Smart and Dabo are falling off, now that the $$$ is above the table. Saban was smart to bail.

All of the other guys making the big bucks are pretenders, in my view.

How would Day do at MSU? How would Sark do at Arkansas? How would Riley do at UCLA?

How would any of them do at Indiana?

Cignetti has gone against Day twice.  He got blown out the first time, and won by the skin of his teeth the second time when OSU missed a FG shorter than an extra point.

They square off again this year at Indiana- so we will see how it goes. 

How would Day do at MSU?  Well, certainly he wouldn’t win 95% of his games like he’s doing now. But he would build a winning culture or the players, the players families, and the school administration are all aligned. 

Teh point is Cignetti is doing what he's doing at Indiana.

F'ing Indiana. Think about that.

It is mind blowingly impressive.   No doubt. And he is not a one trick pony.  They will be a beast again this season.  

How would any of them do at Indiana?

with Cuban's $$$??