Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Over/under and how long Kiffin lasts at LSU:

1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
5 years

I'd say before the fourth year he's 50% chance of leaving.

Leaving, or fired?

Either way, it ends badly.  They've thrown so much money at the situation that the best that can be hoped for is an NC or two in the process before it all ends in tears.  Though that is not likely, for several reasons.  

Tulane has nothing to lose, there is no embarrassment, no judgement.  It's almost a given at any G4 school if you're coach does well, he's going to leave.  It's 100% expected.  Now look at all the coaches in DI who leave for another school.  Sometimes it's mutual, sometimes not.  Jimbo Fisher leaving FSU was not well received, no way he would have been allowed to coach the bowl.  I'm struggling to think of any major D1 school where the coach was allowed to stay as HC when he was taking a similar gig.  I think sometimes the problem resolves itself because the other school may not be eligible for the post season.  Fran leaving Alabama, Kiffen leaving Tennessee.  What did Saban do at Bama when he went to the Dolphins?  Even when Stoops retired, he waited well until after the season was over and the recruits were signed.  Might have been slightly disingenuous, but it didn't hurt anybody really. 

Jimbo leaving FSU was not well-received, but that was in part because it was largely unheard of.  I think you mentioned the major instances; there aren't that many.  And in Fran's case, it's a totally different paradigm than it sounds like to our ears today.....Alabama's ass was far in the crack back then.  Leaving for A&M was seen as "Yeah, I get that."  Even Tennessee, as storied as it is, had some rough years around that time, and USC was seen as an ultimate destination job.  But for the most part, those kinds of moves didn't happen.  FSU was still primed with potential when Fisher left, and had recently won an NC.  They weren't in the same shape as Alabama in the early aughts, or Tennessee in the late aughts.  

Back when we were moving on from Miles and some factions of LSU wanted Fisher, a sports-writer did an analysis of coaches leaving destination jobs for other destination jobs, and found that it just hardly ever happens.  For that reason many considered Fisher to LSU unlikely.  Which makes sense, because you don't tend to leave a destination job....that's why it's a destination job.  When he actually did leave for A&M, it was a rarity and an oddity.  In retrospect, it probably signaled a paradigm shift.  Ten years ago, the thought of a coach leaving Notre Dame for LSU was crazy, and wouldn't have been taken seriously.  It just didn't happen.  

so, no one will care and it didn't matter

PSU has found itself in a battle with all of mormonism for the services of Kalani Sitake

Both Ole Miss and Florida matched LSU's offer.  Why he chose LSU, I don't know.  Reports with sauces! say that both Nick Saban and Pete Carroll told him to take the LSU job.  I don't know what would make them say that either.  If they said it. 

There's no Miami or FSU in Louisiana.  

What does the cost matter?  Very little of *our money goes to these overpriced CFB coaches.