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Topic: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

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ELA

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #182 on: August 22, 2025, 01:04:02 PM »
Unfortunately, the random bounce, quirky, well-timed play, and indescribable disasters that used to play an outsized role in how we determined national champions are probably permanently thrown in the dustbin of history. It probably will be the blue bloods who routinely make the final few games of the playoffs going forward.
Yup

Cincydawg

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #183 on: August 22, 2025, 01:09:38 PM »
Which programs will dominate the NC in the coming years, or rather, which not on that list might break through?

Most would not have had Oregon on such a list 20 years ago, nor Clemson, we would have had USC and probably Nebraska.  What about Arizona State?  Boise State?  Washington?  UNC?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #184 on: August 22, 2025, 01:15:14 PM »
I think Ohio State has never defeated UGA.  Yet.
They haven't but there have been surprisingly few games and the two were both pretty good.  

Georgia beat Ohio State 21-14 in the Citrus Bowl on January 1, 1993.  I vaguely remember watching that game (I was a SR in HS).  Georgia scored a TD in the first quarter and Ohio State answered in the second quarter for a 7-7 tie at halftime.  The teams traded TD's in the third quarter and headed to the fourth knotted up at 14-14.  The Bulldogs got close to the red zone but a sack and fumble gave the Buckeyes the ball.  The Buckeyes got to the UGA 15 yard line but a misheard audible led to a backfield collision and the Buckeyes fumbled back to Georgia.  Georgia scored a TD and held on for the win.  

That season:
Georgia:
Georgia tied Florida for the SEC-E Championship at 6-2 but lost the H2H tiebreaker due to having lost the WLOCP to the Gators.  Georgia's other loss was to Tennessee and the Vols finished third in the SEC-E at 5-3.  Florida lost the SECCG to eventual NC Bama.  

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes finished second in the Big Ten.  It was a distant second to Michigan but the Buckeyes did tie the Wolverines in Columbus.  That was Michigan's "year of the tie" as they also tied Illinois and Notre Dame and ultimately finished the year 9-0-3.  Ohio State had two early losses to mediocre teams (at UW, vs IL) then rattled off five straight wins before the tie with Michigan.  

Rankings:
Georgia was #8 going into the game and stayed #8 with the win.  Ohio State was #15 going into the game and dropped to #15 with the loss.  That is a pet peeve of mine and makes no sense.  One would expect #15 to lose to #8 and it was a competitive game so why did they drop?  

Georgia started the year at #14 and dropped to #19 after their loss to Tennessee.  Then they climbed all the way to #7 before losing to Florida dropped them to #15 then they climbed to their final, #8 spot.  

Ohio State started the year at #19 and climbed to #12 before back-to-back losses dropped them to #21 and then out of the poll for a few weeks.  They got to #17 before the tie with Michigan moved them up to #15 where they stayed until the bowl loss dropped them to #18.  

Georgia beat Ohio State 42-41 right as 2022 ended on December 31, 2022.  The teams traded TD's in the first quarter then there was a whole heap of scoring in the second quarter.  Ohio State scored 14 unanswered to take a 21-7 lead then Georgia scored 17 unanswered to take a 24-21 lead and Ohio State closed out the first half scoring with a TD to take a 28-24 lead into halftime.  All-told that is 21-17 Buckeyes for the quarter.  The Ohio State TD at the end of the first half was the first 7 of what became 17 unanswered (directly after UGA's 17 unanswered) to make it 38-24 at the end of the third quarter.  UGA got a FG, a TD, and a two-point conversion to pull within 3 at 38-35.  Ohio State then kicked a FG to stretch the lead back to 6 but Gerogia answered with a TD to take a one point lead at 42-41.  Ohio State tried a 50 yard FG as both the game clock and the NYE countdown clock hit zero but missed and Georgia went to the NC where they had a laughably easy time with TCU.  

The play of the game occurred late in the third quarter with Ohio State leading by 11, 35-24.  On 3rd and goal from the UGA 7 Stroud threw to Marvin Harrison who was hit hard as the ball arrived and didn't make the catch.  The play was reviewed for Targeting but ultimately no penalties were assessed at all.  Harrison missed the rest of the game.  Ohio State kicked the FG on 4th down to take a 14 point lead that ultimately wasn't enough.  

Rankings:
Georgia was #1 going into the game, won, and won the NC against TCU to finish the year at #1.  They started #3 but they were #1 nearly all season long.  

Ohio State was #4 going into the game and finished #4.  They were #2 right behind Georgia for most of the season then lost to the cheaters (whose cheating scheme was in full effect in 2022), dropped briefly to #5 then climbed back to #4 and finished there.  

 

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