Based on this simulation the three-loss teams are now all but mathematically eliminated. It doesn't matter for Iowa since they picked up a fourth loss in week 10 anyway but here are the standings and remaining games for the mathematical contenders:
- 7-0 Ohio State: vs RU, at M
- 6-1 Oregon: vs USC, at UDub
- 6-1 Michigan: at UMD, vs tOSU
- 5-2 Illinois: at UW, vs NU
- 5-2 Minnesota: at NU, vs UW
- 5-2 Nebraska: at PSU, vs IA
- 5-2 Penn State: vs UNL, at RU
- 5-2 Southern California: at Ore, vs UCLA
- 5-3 Indiana: off, at PU
Indiana is in the race mathematically but for all practical purposes they are out. They can't catch Ohio State and they could only tie Oregon and Michigan but they would need BOTH Oregon and Michigan to lose out and they would also need all of IL, MN, UNL, PSU, and USC to each lose at least one game.
As a practical matter it isn't very likely that tOSU or Oregon will lose at home to RU (2-5) or USC (5-2) or that Michigan will lose on the road to Maryland (2-5). If they all win this week then the only way for a 2-loss team to get in the mix would be for Oregon (at UDub) and Michigan (vs tOSU) to both lose on the final weekend. Even that would only create a tie between Oregon, Michigan, and any of IL, MN, UNL, and PSU that manage to win out.
Oregon is extremely likely to win out and the Buckeyes and Wolverines are very likely to win their week-11 games which only leaves two reasonably likely possibilities:
- Ohio State beats Michigan and the CG is between 9-0 tOSU and 8-1 Oregon or
- Michigan beats Ohio State and there is a three-way tie at 8-1 between the Ducks, Bucks, and Wolverines.
In the event of the three-way tie, H2H2H does not apply since they didn't all play and no team beat the other two so it goes through a series of non-decisive tiebreakers and lands on Cumulative Conference record of conference opponents. Here is an update on that:
- 30-34 Ohio State's opponents
- 29-35 Oregon's opponents
- 25-39 Michigan's opponents
I don't *THINK* that Michigan's opponents could possibly make up that much ground which means that if the Bucks and Ducks both win this weekend they more-or-less lock up CG bids.
I am also fairly certain that, in this simulation, Ohio State would mathematically lock up a CG bid with a win this weekend at home over Rutgers because at that point the worst they could do would be a three-way tie with Oregon and Michigan and while Oregon's opponents might catch Ohio State's opponents, Michigan's can't so the Buckeyes would go either as outright regular season champions or as winners of the tiebreaker.
