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Topic: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation

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ELA

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #98 on: August 11, 2025, 10:30:01 AM »
NOVEMBER 9 POLL
  • OHIO STATE (9-0) 1
  • Texas (8-1) 2
  • Georgia (8-1) 3
  • OREGON (8-1) 4
  • Clemson (8-1) 5
  • MINNESOTA (8-1) 6
  • Tennessee (7-2) 7
  • ILLINOIS (7-2) 8
  • MICHIGAN (7-2) 9
  • Alabama (7-2) 10
  • Ole Miss (8-2) 12
  • PENN STATE (7-2) 13
  • Boston College (8-2) 14
  • Notre Dame (7-2) 15
  • Missouri (7-2) 16
  • NEBRASKA (8-2) 17
  • INDIANA (7-3) 11
  • Georgia Tech (7-2) 19
  • UNLV (9-0) 20
  • James Madison (8-0) 21
  • Oklahoma (6-3) 22
  • Vanderbilt (7-3) 23
  • Louisville (6-3) 24
  • Miami (6-3) 25
  • Houston (7-3) -
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GopherRock

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #99 on: August 11, 2025, 01:18:59 PM »
Just reading this now. 

Damn, @ELA . Whatever computer is simulating this season sure does like the Gophers. Another win down at Mordor after not getting one since the Clinton administration? 

And as for the Big 8, the Big 8 of peak Nebraska ain't coming back either. That consisted of Nebraska, OU, one other halfway decent team (would rotate between Colorado, Missouri, and Okie State), and 5 rotten, ends-blown-out tomato cans. 
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ELA

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #100 on: August 11, 2025, 02:18:55 PM »
Just randomness.

Houston is in 1st in the Big XII, despite ranking #14 of 16 in ratings

Minnesota and Wisconsin are #11 and #12 in the Big Ten in the ratings, and yet Minnesota is 8-1 and ranked #6, while Wisconsin is 3-6 and about to fire Fickell
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #101 on: August 12, 2025, 10:23:02 AM »
Grr, had issues with browser crashing but hopefully I can get this to post this time.  

Per @ELA 's simulation the B1G standings heading into the last three weeks are:

  • 6-0 Ohio State:  vs UCLA, vs RU, at M
  • 5-1 Minnesota:  at Ore, at NU, vs UW
  • 5-1 Oregon:  vs MN, vs USC, at UDub
  • 5-1 Michigan:  at NU, at UMD, vs tOSU
  • 5-2 Nebraska:  at UCLA, at PSU, vs IA
  • 4-2 Illinois:  vs UMD, at UW, vs NU
  • 4-2 Penn State:  at MSU, vs UNL, at RU
  • 4-2 USC:  vs IA, at Ore, vs UCLA
  • 4-3 Indiana:  vs UW, off, at PU
  • 3-3 Iowa:  at USC, vs MSU, at UNL
All other teams are mathematically eliminated from the CG because they have >3 losses while Ohio State and the MN/Ore winner can do no worse than 6-3.  

As a practical matter the teams with more than one loss are likely out of the running because:
  • tOSU isn't likely to lose at home to UCLA or RU so their 'worst case' is 8-1
  • Minnesota isn't likely to lose to NU nor at home to UW and Ore isn't likely to lose at home to USC nor to UDub so the 'worst case' for the Ore/MN winner is 8-1
The most likely results are either:
  • Ohio State alone in first at 9-0 and Oregon alone in second at 8-1 with the Bucks and Ducks playing in the CG.  
  • Ohio State, Oregon, and Michigan all tied at 8-1.  The tiebreakers are weird.  H2H2H favors Michigan as they are 1-0 (beat tOSU, didn't play Ore) while Oregon is 0-0 (didn't play either) and tOSU is 0-1 (lost to M, didn't play Ore) but H2H only prevails if all teams played each other (they didn't) or if one team beat each of the others (didn't happen).  

The multi-team tiebreakers are:
  • H2H but only if all played each other or if one defeated all the others, n/a.  
  • winning percentage against common conference opponents.  They are all perfect against common conference opponents because none of them lost to a team that the other two played, n/a.  
  • winning percentage against the common opponent placed highest in the standings, then the next, etc n/a.  
  • cumulative conference winning percentage of conference opponents.  Just eyeballing it without actually running the numbers I *think* this would leave Michigan out because looking at ELA's standings, they played nearly all of the B1G's worst teams.  

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2025 SP+/FPI season simulation
« Reply #102 on: August 12, 2025, 10:37:34 AM »
FWIW:
Within this scenario the cumulative records of conference opponents for tOSU, Ore, and M are:

  • 26-30 Ohio State's opponents
  • 25-31 Oregon's opponents
  • 22-34 Michigan's opponents


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