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Still no SP+ projections, so going with Massey

@Tulane --- L (31%)
WESTERN ILLINOIS --- W (99%)
OREGON --- L (9%)
UCLA --- L (35%)
UL MONROE --- W (88%)
@Penn State --- L (2%)
PURDUE --- W (64%)
@Nebraska --- L (19%)
@Southern Cal --- L (14%)
MICHIGAN --- L (6%)
MINNESOTA --- L (22%)
@Illinois --- L (20%)

3-9 off strict W/L.  Weighted is 4.09.  So calling wins at O/U 4.  Tulane seems like a mess.  They brought in 5 transfer QBs, and already kicked one out.  Game 1, not sure where they are at.  And then Michigan and Minnesota are both "neutral" games in the Soldier Field.  I don't think those are any more neutral than Northwestern playing at home, so those are 3 losses, where I think they get at least 1, and possibly 2.  Again, 4-8 sounds right, but if I have to pick a lane, it's the over.

Isn't it typical to set the O/U at a half-game (i.e. either 3.5 or 4.5 instead of 4), so it's impossible to "push"--every vote post-season will be either right, or wrong?

No, it's whatever you are closest to.  They won't just give you the hook.  If it was 4.29, I would set it at 4.5

over