2025 NFL Thread

[MrNubbz]

I don't hate the Lions' pick, but man, I couldn't have run to the podium quicker to pick Mike Green if I were Brad Holmes

I dunno one accusation in high school and one at Virginia as an unknown then? So two totally different people and places weren't looking to score a payday

[Cincydawg]

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High - Daily Norseman

Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

[Cincydawg]

Given this, if true, would a poor team just be better off trading EVERY first round pick for a bevy of second rounders, or thirds?  Crap shoot?

You get one good player about every three drafts from Round 1?

[betarhoalphadelta]

Given this, if true, would a poor team just be better off trading EVERY first round pick for a bevy of second rounders, or thirds?  Crap shoot?

You get one good player about every three drafts from Round 1?

No, that's ALL draft picks, not just first rounders. 

Looks like 20% of picks are considered "good", "great", or "legendary". I'd have to look at the data set, but my guess is that AT least half of those were round 1 picks. And that far below 10% of those are 7th rounders. 

Given that the first round is 1/7th of the draft, or 14.2%, and 20% of picks are good, great, or legendary, it would seem to me that your first rounder is "good" or better more often than not. 

[MrNubbz]

Browns just absolutely fleeced the Jags to move down 3 spots and get the Jags 2nd rd pick this year and their 1st rd pick in 2026.

Just hope they don't piss them away like '12/'13/'14 Drafts - amazing any Browns fans my age have a liver left

[CatsbyAZ]

Just hope they don't piss them away like '12/'13/'14 Drafts - amazing any Browns fans my age have a liver left

😂


https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1916195117595087189

[Cincydawg]

No, that's ALL draft picks, not just first rounders.

Looks like 20% of picks are considered "good", "great", or "legendary". I'd have to look at the data set, but my guess is that AT least half of those were round 1 picks. And that far below 10% of those are 7th rounders.

Given that the first round is 1/7th of the draft, or 14.2%, and 20% of picks are good, great, or legendary, it would seem to me that your first rounder is "good" or better more often than not.

I missed that, I was searching for first round busts, which would give a better ratio.  Thanks.


First-round draft hit rates: Tracking rates from the best (centers) to the worst (WRs)

The highest hit rates all involve the offensive line. Centers are the most likely position to re-sign, with 11 of the 12 first-rounders in the 20 drafts earning second contracts with their drafting team. Tackles were the only other group over 50 percent, with 38 of 64 hitting. Guards were at 50 percent.
NFL DRAFT HUB: Live NFL Draft news, live picks, grades, analysis and more.
At the other end of the spectrum, drafting a wide receiver in the first round is seldom a long-term proposition. Just 21 of the 77 first-round wideouts signed second deals with the team that drafted them, a 27 percent hit rate. Tight ends weren't much better, with just 33 percent.

[847badgerfan]

😂


https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1916195117595087189

LMAO

[MrNubbz]

😂


https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1916195117595087189

Great Timing CAT - bastage,ya know I don't mind it can't end up any worse than Watson/Weeden/Manziel. Even though it's the BROWNS - IT CAN'T 🙃
 

[betarhoalphadelta]

That's an interesting way to slice it. 

Not that I'm going to disagree with their methodology, as I think "re-signing with original drafting team" is a valuable metric. That would obviously be a "hit". And I can understand calling someone who doesn't make it a "miss". 

However, I wouldn't necessarily call someone who simply moves to a new team and is still a productive football player a "bust". So it doesn't really answer your question. 

[Cincydawg]

I'd guess the "move to another team" is not position dependent, but a constant, so perhaps the relative positioning is correct.

[MrNubbz]

I've said it before and I'll say it again - we as a collective could select better as we cover CFB pretty well across rooting interests and love of the game. Watson is done(prolly) but the BROWNS picked up Kenny Pickett as a FA they also signed Joe Flacco.But why take both Sanders & Gabrial??? Could have used one of those picks up front. Unless Jimmy Hasbeen was meddling again Andrew Barry needs to pull his head out of the plumbing and peruse scouting reports

[OrangeAfroMan]

So only draft centers???

[MrNubbz]

Texans need OL to protect CJ so they trade a 3rd round pick to pick an RB in the 4th round?  That's not going to help Woody Marks find any holes either


Houston sent No. 179 and a 2026 third rounder to Miami in exchange for No. 116 and No. 224 in 2025.