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Topic: 2025 B1G SoS Projection

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medinabuckeye1

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2025 B1G SoS Projection
« on: July 02, 2025, 04:24:09 PM »
Per Phil Steele, B1G and national SoS projections:

  • 1 Wisconsin
  • 8 UCLA
  • 13 Purdue
  • 16 Rutgers
  • 19 Oregon
  • 20 USC
  • 23 Northwestern
  • 24 Ohio State
  • 26 Iowa
  • 31 Michigan State
  • 37 Penn State
  • 46 Maryland
  • 52 Minnesota
  • 53 Washington
  • 54 Michigan
  • 56 Illinois
  • 58 Indiana
  • 63 Nebraska
I'm not endorsing Phil Steele's list per-se but I do want to say this:  As I've said since we expanded to mega-conferences, schedule uniformity is gone.  Every year there will be a VAST difference between the toughest and the easiest B1G SoS.  It may not end up being Wisconsin playing the toughest and Nebraska playing the easiest schedule but there will be an unlucky team that plays a tough schedule and a lucky team that plays an easy one.  

Mdot21

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2025, 04:31:33 PM »
Per Phil Steele, B1G and national SoS projections:

  • 1 Wisconsin
  • 8 UCLA
  • 13 Purdue
  • 16 Rutgers
  • 19 Oregon
  • 20 USC
  • 23 Northwestern
  • 24 Ohio State
  • 26 Iowa
  • 31 Michigan State
  • 37 Penn State
  • 46 Maryland
  • 52 Minnesota
  • 53 Washington
  • 54 Michigan
  • 56 Illinois
  • 58 Indiana
  • 63 Nebraska
I'm not endorsing Phil Steele's list per-se but I do want to say this:  As I've said since we expanded to mega-conferences, schedule uniformity is gone.  Every year there will be a VAST difference between the toughest and the easiest B1G SoS.  It may not end up being Wisconsin playing the toughest and Nebraska playing the easiest schedule but there will be an unlucky team that plays a tough schedule and a lucky team that plays an easy one. 
Michigan's schedule looks pretty damn manageable to me. They miss out on Oregon and Penn State and they trade a home game vs a pre-season top 5 Texas team OOC for a road OOC game vs an Oklahoma that was 6-7 last year and is counting on a plethora of porthole guys to flip the thing around. They have Nebraska and USC on the road, both those teams have lots of question marks and things to prove and obviously neither of those teams are as good as Oregon or Penn State. They also have their in-state rival on the road in MSU but everyone else they get at home. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2025, 04:56:12 PM »


Who did Barry tick off?  

The ranking is just a quick, off the top of my head version taking HFA into account.  If you disagree with them by a line or two please just chalk it up to me doing this quickly.  My point here is the difference.  

Suppose that both teams are not quite at the tOSU/M/Ore/PSU/Bama level but just below that.  Nebraska should probably go 10-2 and if they can pull off a home win over Michigan they could finish 11-1.  Wisconsin should go 7-5 splitting the road games in Minneapolis and Bloomington and maybe if they can win those both and pull off a home win over Ohio State they could finish 9-3.  I see SoS as likely responsible for a 2-3 game difference in outcome between the Badgers and Huskers.  

Mdot21

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2025, 05:00:34 PM »


Who did Barry tick off? 

The ranking is just a quick, off the top of my head version taking HFA into account.  If you disagree with them by a line or two please just chalk it up to me doing this quickly.  My point here is the difference. 

Suppose that both teams are not quite at the tOSU/M/Ore/PSU/Bama level but just below that.  Nebraska should probably go 10-2 and if they can pull off a home win over Michigan they could finish 11-1.  Wisconsin should go 7-5 splitting the road games in Minneapolis and Bloomington and maybe if they can win those both and pull off a home win over Ohio State they could finish 9-3.  I see SoS as likely responsible for a 2-3 game difference in outcome between the Badgers and Huskers. 
that schedule is flat out retarded difficult. @Alabama, Maryland, @Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, @Oregon is a brutal 6 game stretch run. Jesus.

FearlessF

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2025, 05:27:50 PM »
schedules have been unequal for a long time, are they getting worse?  perhaps

this would be the first time since joining the B1G that UNL has had an easier schedule than most
I'm ok with this
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2025, 05:38:29 PM »
And they're even in the same division!
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2025, 05:39:12 PM »
What's extra super fun is that if you had a suicidal schedule last year, at least in the SEC, you have it again this year (just h2h flip-flopped).  

COOL.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2025, 05:45:44 PM »
schedules have been unequal for a long time, are they getting worse?  perhaps

this would be the first time since joining the B1G that UNL has had an easier schedule than most
I'm ok with this
With more teams in the leagues the schedules are indisputably getting more unequal because there is less cross-over.  

Just to be clear, I'm not picking on Nebraska here.  Realistically all of our teams are going to have relatively tougher and relatively easier years.  2025 appears to be a relatively easier year for Nebraska and a relatively tougher year for Wisconsin.  

Appearances can be deceiving of course.  Maybe some of those teams that most of use think will be tough on Wisconsin's schedule will crater and be easy.  Maybe some of those teams that most of us think will be easy on Nebraska's schedule will have a breakout year and be tough.  Doubtful but it could happen.  What is more likely is relatively minor changes.  Maybe instead of Nebraska having the easiest SoS it will be IU, IL, or M and maybe instead of Wisconsin having the toughest SoS it will be UCLA, PU, or RU.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2025, 05:46:35 PM »
What's extra super fun is that if you had a suicidal schedule last year, at least in the SEC, you have it again this year (just h2h flip-flopped). 

COOL.
Flipping HFA can be a big deal.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2025, 05:48:29 PM »
Flipping HFA can be a big deal. 
Even if you play 7 of the top 16 teams in the country?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2025, 12:14:01 AM »


Who did Barry tick off?   

Probably the Big Ten schedule makers, when he used to bellyache about his crossover schedules while his teams were completely dominating the West division every year. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2025, 07:30:30 AM »


Who did Barry tick off? 

The ranking is just a quick, off the top of my head version taking HFA into account.  If you disagree with them by a line or two please just chalk it up to me doing this quickly.  My point here is the difference. 

Suppose that both teams are not quite at the tOSU/M/Ore/PSU/Bama level but just below that.  Nebraska should probably go 10-2 and if they can pull off a home win over Michigan they could finish 11-1.  Wisconsin should go 7-5 splitting the road games in Minneapolis and Bloomington and maybe if they can win those both and pull off a home win over Ohio State they could finish 9-3.  I see SoS as likely responsible for a 2-3 game difference in outcome between the Badgers and Huskers. 
Maybe his wife. He retired from Wisconsin 4 years ago.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

847badgerfan

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2025, 07:32:52 AM »
What's extra super fun is that if you had a suicidal schedule last year, at least in the SEC, you have it again this year (just h2h flip-flopped). 

COOL.




U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2025, 09:43:42 AM »
Even if you play 7 of the top 16 teams in the country?
Short answer, yes.  

Longer but I'll try to keep it reasonable answer:
Let me start off by acknowledging that playing 7 of the top 16 teams in the country is going to be a difficult schedule no matter where games are played.  The next issue is just how good the team playing them is.  If they suck then all seven of those are probably losses no matter where the games are played so yeah, HFA doesn't matter much in that case.  However if they are a pretty good team then it matters a LOT and your Gators from 2024 are the perfect example of that.  Based on the final AP Poll, last year Florida played:
  • #4 Texas in Austin, L49-17
  • #6 Georgia in the WLOCP (it will always be the WLOCP), L34-20
  • #9 Tennessee in Knoxville, L23-17 in OT
  • #11 Ole Miss in the Swamp, W24-17
  • #18 Miami in the Swamp, L41-17
  • #27 (finished second among ORV) LSU in the Swamp, W27-16

They also played aTm who started out 7-1 and at one point was a top-10 team but the Aggies cratered down the stretch losing their last three and four of their last five with the lone exception being an FCS win.  

They also played FSU who opened the season as a top-10 team but finished 2-10.  

Against the six teams that finished ranked or at least receiving votes (LSU), Florida went 2-4 but lets look at the H/A split.  In the friendly confines of the Swamp 2-1:
  • Beat #11 Ole Miss by a TD
  • Lost badly to #18 Miami
  • Beat #27 LSU by 11
Away from home 0-3:
  • Lost at Texas by 32
  • Lost in the WLOCP by two TD's
  • Lost in Knoxville by a TD in OT

That is a pretty big difference, 2-1 vs 0-3.  


 

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