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Topic: 2025 B1G SoS Projection
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betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #14 on:** July 03, 2025, 10:26:40 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 03, 2025, 09:43:42 AM

Against the six teams that finished ranked or at least receiving votes (LSU), Florida went 2-4 but lets look at the H/A split. In the friendly confines of the Swamp 2-1:
Beat #11 Ole Miss by a TD
Lost badly to #18 Miami
Beat #27 LSU by 11
Away from home 0-3:
Lost at Texas by 32
Lost in the WLOCP by two TD's
Lost in Knoxville by a TD in OT

That is a pretty big difference, 2-1 vs 0-3.

Of course you could spin this another way...

0-3 against top-ten teams and 2-1 against teams ranked outside the top ten (incl. ORV). You could easily make the argument that beating those top 10 teams was off the table for a team of Florida's caliber regardless of venue.

You could also make an argument that losing on the road to #9 Tennessee in OT was a better performance than losing "badly" at home to #18 Miami, which goes counter to the HFA effect. Based on HFA, you'd expect Florida to lose badly on the road against a better team, rather than take them to OT but lose badly at home to a lesser team. I personally would chalk this up to "small sample size problem" rather than "invalidates the value of HFA problem", of course...

That said, I agree with your central premise. Playing 7 of the top 16 is going to be a hard row to hoe no matter where you're playing them. However, if you're legitimately a top 16 team yourself, the split of playing the better of those 7 teams at home and the lesser of those teams on the road will be likely to result in a better record than the opposite, due to HFA.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #15 on:** July 03, 2025, 01:45:26 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 03, 2025, 10:26:40 AM

Of course you could spin this another way...

0-3 against top-ten teams and 2-1 against teams ranked outside the top ten (incl. ORV). You could easily make the argument that beating those top 10 teams was off the table for a team of Florida's caliber regardless of venue.

There is also a third dimension that appears to have been a factor for Florida, timing:

At the end of September the Gators were 2-2 and I think that @OrangeAfroMan would agree that they looked like hot garbage. The two wins were unimpressive: One was at home over an FCS team and the other was an SEC road win but it was against a team that went 2-10 overall and winless in the SEC so winning by 17 at Mississippi State wasn't impressive considering just how bad the Bulldogs were. Meanwhile the two losses were BAD. The opponents were decent, Miami who finished #18 and aTm who was top-10 at one point but both losses were at home and neither was close.

From there on Florida was, IMHO, a playoff caliber team. They were only 6-3 after the 2-2 start but all three losses were to playoff teams and all three were away from home and two of the three were close:

L 23-17 in OT to Tennessee in Knoxville. Obviously this could have gone either way.
L 34-20 to Georgia in the WLOCP. This was closer than the 14 point final seems. It was tied in the 4th quarter and only became a 2-score game because Florida threw a pick right after UGA took a 27-20 lead. The pick gave Georgia a first-and-goal and effectively ended the game.
L 49-17 to Texas in Austin. This one was bad, it was 42-0 before Florida outscored Texas 17-7 in garbage time but Texas was also a REALLY good team that finished with the best record in the SEC, made it to the National semi-final, and finished ranked #4.

Those losses were offset by Florida winning their other six games including spiking the playoff hopes of both LSU and Ole Miss.

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 03, 2025, 10:26:40 AM

You could also make an argument that losing on the road to #9 Tennessee in OT was a better performance than losing "badly" at home to #18 Miami, which goes counter to the HFA effect. Based on HFA, you'd expect Florida to lose badly on the road against a better team, rather than take them to OT but lose badly at home to a lesser team. I personally would chalk this up to "small sample size problem" rather than "invalidates the value of HFA problem", of course...

I agree with this completely. Losing on the road in OT to Tennessee WAS a better performance than getting smoked at home by Miami. I think it is both a matter of small sample size and of the aforementioned timing issue.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #16 on:** July 03, 2025, 01:46:42 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 03, 2025, 10:26:40 AM

That said, I agree with your central premise. Playing 7 of the top 16 is going to be a hard row to hoe no matter where you're playing them. However, if you're legitimately a top 16 team yourself, the split of playing the better of those 7 teams at home and the lesser of those teams on the road will be likely to result in a better record than the opposite, due to HFA.

I wanted to focus on this separately because I think it is a very important point and one that most people may not think of.

HFA is different for different teams. Sure, playing a NC Contender on the road is tough for anyone but if you are a bottom feeder it likely makes no difference whether you play them at home or on the road, you are going to lose either way. Similarly, playing a bottom feeder is relatively easy but if you are a NC Contender then HFA shouldn't matter against them because you should win either way. However, if you are also a bottom feeder then HFA is reasonably likely to decide the outcome of that game.

So what do you want? What you want is the teams that are the most even match-ups to be home games:

If you are a league Championship Contender you want the other Contenders at home.
If you are a middling team you want the other middling teams at home.
If you are a team that is struggling for bowl eligibility you want the other bottom feeders at home.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #17 on:** July 03, 2025, 02:31:07 PM »

Here is a B1G projected power ranking from CFN:

Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Oregon
Illinois
Southern California
Indiana
Michigan State
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Washington
Rutgers
Maryland
UCLA
Northwestern
Purdue

So my assertion is:

If you are Ohio State: You want Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, and Illinois at home (if you play them)
If you are Iowa: You want Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Nebraska at home.
If you are Purdue: You want Northwestern, UCLA, Maryland, and Rutgers at home (and you DEFINITELY want to play them).

What did they actually get:
Ohio State misses Oregon and gets Penn State at home but they have to travel to Ann Arbor and Urbana-Champaign.

Iowa gets Indiana, MSU, and MN at home but has to travel to Lincoln.

Purdue misses UCLA and Maryland, gets Rutgers at home, and has to travel to Evanston.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #18 on:** July 03, 2025, 02:34:13 PM »

The HFA thing does matter, but nowhere near who you're playing against. What is the general HFA? 3 points? Well, if you're playing a great team, that advantage is irrelevant if you're a 15-point underdog.

So while both things matter, one matters a lot more. A spread of 3 or less can literally be negated by one play of the ball bouncing the wrong way. Double-digit dogs are in need of a lot more help than that from the football gods.

Except for the Swamp. The Swamp matters way more.

FearlessF · « **Reply #19 on:** July 03, 2025, 02:40:34 PM »

true

UNL gets Michigan, Michigan St., Northwestern, Southern Cal, & Iowa @ home

bonus for Southern Cal, Michigan St, & Iowa
Probably won't matter vs Michigan & Northwestern

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #20 on:** July 03, 2025, 02:44:06 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 03, 2025, 02:34:13 PM

The HFA thing does matter, but nowhere near who you're playing against. What is the general HFA? 3 points? Well, if you're playing a great team, that advantage is irrelevant if you're a 15-point underdog.

I agree, who you plays matters MORE but HFA still matters. I also think it is probably more like 3-5 and I'll add that the HFA is as compared to neutral so the swing from playing a team at home to playing them on the road is double that so 6 or if you go with my 3-5 theory then 6-10. Still not as big as the difference between playing Texas and playing Mississippi State but definitely more than nothing.

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 03, 2025, 02:34:13 PM

Except for the Swamp. The Swamp matters way more.

I don't know as much about the SEC but we did a deep dive on this for the B1G a long time ago and the results were not what I expected but they made sense once I understood. We looked at each teams' home % compared to their road % in conference games only and over a long period of time (I think it was 20+ years). That *SHOULD* take care of a lot of issues:

Using league games only eliminates the artificial homefield advantage you get from beating patsies at home.
Doing it over MANY years eliminates most of the randomness because there are going to be random teams that have odd outcomes but over many years those things will tend to work themselves out.

Going into this I expected HFA to be strongest for teams with LOUD stadiums like Wisconsin (Camp Randall is famously tough), Penn State, and Ohio State.

What we found instead was that the teams with the biggest gap between home % and road % were teams that tend to be middling teams. If you think about it, that makes sense. HFA rarely matters for the big dogs because they are SO GOOD that they should win nearly all of their games anyway so HFA only likely matters in the few games per year against other big dogs. Similarly, HFA rarely matters for the bottom-feeders because they are SO BAD that they should lose nearly all of their games anyway so HFA only likely matters in the few games per year against other bottom-feeders.

For a middling team HFA matters in more games. They might knock off a big dog at home and get upset on the road by a bottom feeder. If you are near the middle of the league then HFA might plausibly matter in more than half of your games.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #21 on:** July 03, 2025, 03:17:45 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 03, 2025, 02:34:13 PM

The HFA thing does matter, but nowhere near who you're playing against. What is the general HFA? 3 points? Well, if you're playing a great team, that advantage is irrelevant if you're a 15-point underdog.

So while both things matter, one matters a lot more. A spread of 3 or less can literally be negated by one play of the ball bouncing the wrong way. Double-digit dogs are in need of a lot more help than that from the football gods.

Yes, that's what medina and I are both saying. HFA matters at the margin, when you're playing a team close enough to your own level that something like HFA is within reach of tipping the scales.

Which is why it not only matters who you're playing against, it matters who you are. If Purdue was in the SEC and facing a schedule with 7 of the top 16 teams, they're going 0-7.

Unless it's a neutral site game, on the Moon... The SEC wouldn't know how to get there and would therefore forfeit

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #22 on:** July 03, 2025, 03:28:04 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 03, 2025, 03:17:45 PM

Yes, that's what medina and I are both saying. HFA matters at the margin, when you're playing a team close enough to your own level that something like HFA is within reach of tipping the scales.

Which is why it not only matters who you're playing against, it matters who you are. If Purdue was in the SEC and facing a schedule with 7 of the top 16 teams, they're going 0-7.

Unless it's a neutral site game, on the Moon... The SEC wouldn't know how to get there and would therefore forfeit

I don't think Purdue could field a team on the moon either because they don't have 11 lunar astronauts but I do think they have more than any other school:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjSwbPo0hWs

847badgerfan · « **Reply #23 on:** July 03, 2025, 03:28:56 PM »

7 on 7!!

847badgerfan · « **Reply #24 on:** July 03, 2025, 03:31:01 PM »

4 on 4 maybe...

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #25 on:** July 03, 2025, 03:54:37 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 03, 2025, 03:31:01 PM

4 on 4 maybe...

Well, 2 on 2.

Only 12 astronauts walked on the moon and eight of them have already passed away. The other four are 89, 89, 93, and 95 years old so it probably wouldn't be much of a game.

OTOH, with the limited gravity on the moon they'd probably be pretty mobile!

FWIW:
I was wrong, the Naval Academy at Annapolis leads all schools with 4 alums who walked on the moon. They are followed by MIT with three then Purdue, Naval Postgraduate School, and Michigan with two each then USC, West Point, Princeton, Texas, Naval War College, Carnegie Mellon, GaTech, CalTech, Harvard, and the University of Oslo with one each.

Of the four who remain alive:

Buzz Aldrin (95) went to West Point and MIT.
David Scott (93) went to Annapolis, MIT, and Michigan.
Charles Duke (89) went to Annapolis and MIT.
Harrison Schmitt (89) went to CalTech, Harvard, and the University of Oslo.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #26 on:** July 03, 2025, 04:27:51 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 03, 2025, 02:34:13 PM

.

Except for the Swamp. The Swamp matters way more.

FearlessF · « **Reply #27 on:** July 03, 2025, 04:31:51 PM »

if ya ain't Dutch, ya ain't much

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Topic: 2025 B1G SoS Projection

betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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OrangeAfroMan

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FearlessF

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medinabuckeye1

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betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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847badgerfan

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847badgerfan

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medinabuckeye1

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Brutus Buckeye

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FearlessF

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