In all the discussion of the worst at-large team in NCAA Tournament history I neglected to post this, one of my annual posts:
What to expect from the Tournament:
Our League has:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Purdue
- #3 Illinois and Michigan State
- #4 Nebraska
- #5 Wisconsin
- #7 UCLA
- #8 Ohio State
- #9 Iowa
It is easy to look at this and think that #1 Michigan should make the F4, #2 Purdue should make the E8, #3's IL and MSU should make the S16, etc. However that ignores that upsets happen both ways. Here is what those seeds should achieve based on historical averages for all teams similarly seeded since expansion:
- 6.68 teams in the R32
- 3.69 teams in the S16
- 2.01 teams in the E8
- 1.04 teams in the F4
- 0.55 teams in the NC
- 0.27 NC's
Here is the data behind this:
That is for the 40 Tournaments from 1985-2025 (no 2020). If it doesn't make sense, reading across the #1 seed line:
- 98.75% of #1 seeds win their opener (158/160)
- 85% of #1 seeds make it to the S16 (136/160)
- 66.88% of #1 seeds make it to the E8 (107/160)
- 41.88% of #1 seeds make it to the F4 (67/160)
- 26.25% of #1 seeds make it to the NC Game (42/160)
- 16.25% of #1 seeds win the NC (26/160)
Be careful assuming that the top seeds should win and the bottom seeds should lose. Based on history one of our top five teams (M, PU, IL, MSU, UNL) should lose their opener. Meanwhile better than two of our bottom four (IA, tOSU, UCLA, UW) should win.
In evaluating our league's performance I think this should be our baseline:
R32:
- >7 in the R32 is GREAT!
- 7 in the R32 is pretty good.
- 6 in the R32 is not so good.
- <6 in the R32 is really bad.
S16:
- >4 in the S16 is GREAT!
- 4 in the S16 is really good.
- 3 in the S16 is not so good.
- <3 in the S16 is bad.
Etc.
