2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Well they did go undefeated during the regular season, which is what I am talking about.

Talk about it all you want, the committee will be looking at their entire resume not just a cherry picked portion. 

There is probably some bubble teams that is undefeated on a particular day of the week or against teams with feline mascots or somesuch and that is as irrelevant as Miami-OH going undefeated against a portion of their schedule. 

[FearlessF]

got the golf and wind done yesterday - ready for some basketball today

[medinabuckeye1]

Well that's a silly dodge, now isn't it? "But what about other midgets?" he protests. And if they had a few more midgets ... there wouldn't be much acquiescence. It's a challenge with that strain of logic, if they had a bit more or a bit more, they'll always be short for someone complaining. (The absolute body bag game, IU East and such, are their own sort of interesting side track, and if we want to talk about that separately, it's sort of interesting in all this)

The schedule was crap (and they were undefeated) in large part because teams like yours and mine were too chickenshit to schedule them. And if the answer is, "they just looked too good despite not being that good, and now that's the stain on their case," that is what it is, but it's OK to live like that.

First, as I said above I don't care how their schedule ended up so bad. Not my, the committee's, nor the last team it's problem. I care about data not emotion and although you at least tried to challenge it, the vast weight of the data says no.

Second, Max's and your argument seems to be that they shouldn't be punished for their joke of a schedule because they made a few phone calls and got turned down. If I did care (I don't, see above) my answer would be: "Make more calls."

I don't think it is a dodge at all. They don't have to schedule Duke or Michigan nor even Wisconsin or Ohio State to improve their SoS and thus their rating. Playing two decent mid-majors instead of non DI Trinity Christian and Indiana East would have helped immensely.

The absolute body bag games are also, to me, a backstop against this sorta "we tried" argument because playing not one but two non-DI games isn't "trying".

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm making a data based argument but the fact that I make it strongly makes it emotional?

[medinabuckeye1]

See, this one of the issues with talking about "data" when you don't understand the data.

Off the loss, they fell a couple spots in Torvik, stayed flat in KenPom, did drop 10 in NET.

In resume, they slipped six spots in KPI to 53, WAB was already updated and are 28th in SOR.

I understand the data just fine. They are now (updated to include the loss):

• #64 in NET
• #87 in Torvik
• #93 in KenPom

That is not close to an at-large bid.

I should admit here that Torvik was already updated when I quoted it last night and I didn't realize that but it makes literally no difference because regardless of whether they were #87 and about to drop or #87 and done, they were not close either way.

I'll give you credit for at least trying to make a reason based argument for Miami rather than sticking your fingers in your ears and screaming "but undefeated for part of the season" as a wholly emotional argument like another poster.

That said I think you are reaching here. WAB and SOR obviously lean MUCH more heavily on record compared to NET/Torvik/KenPom and to me that is just bad data.

• If you picked based on NET they aren't close.
• If you picked based on Torvik (Max's favorite previously) they aren't close and wouldn't even be in if we took the best 68!
• If you picked based on KenPom, same as Torvik.

Apparently you went forum shopping and found a couple that maybe work for them.

[medinabuckeye1]

Well, OSU might get run off the court

Let's hope not. If the committee decides to let in a bunch of crappy mid-majors for emotional reasons the Buckeyes might need upsets today and tomorrow just to get an at-large bid.

[MaximumSam]

Talk about it all you want, the committee will be looking at their entire resume not just a cherry picked portion.

There is probably some bubble teams that is undefeated on a particular day of the week or against teams with feline mascots or somesuch and that is as irrelevant as Miami-OH going undefeated against a portion of their schedule.

Lol I respect your commitment to the bit. Hopefully the committee doesn't care about wins and losses and puts OSU in on brand value, which I'm told is even more important than whatever you did during the season.

[FearlessF]

Talk about it all you want, the committee will be looking at their entire resume not just a cherry picked portion.

I'll leave this Miami-OH issue to the committee  - I don't care
but, if Miami-OH does get in, I'd like them to be matched up with Nebraska 

[betarhoalphadelta]

No. This is false. It has nothing to do with opinion. Based on their fancystats you can calculate the chance each team would beat another team. You can then calculate how likely it is a team would go undefeated against any schedule, including Miami's. None of the bubble teams are likely to go undefeated against Miami's schedule.

Yes. You can do that. And ultimately what you'll learn is...

Going undefeated in a manner like this is total crapshoot luck. 

Yes, it's REALLY rare. I.e. I just did a quick calculation. 0.9 ^ 31 = 0.038. 

You know what that means? If you're 90% likely to win every one of the 31 games in your regular schedule, you're only 3.8% likely to win them all. 

It's not like they were just out there dominating everyone. Of those 31 games, 4 went to OT. Another 5 were won in regulation by one basket (4 games by 2 points, 1 game by 3 points). Meaning that as you got towards the end of each [close] game, the outcome was pretty close to a coin flip. The fact that all 9 of them were notched as W's is... Let's hear it... LUCK. 

Now, you can say... "Well, clearly that team is clutch! They just know how to win in the end!"

Well, against UMass, they didn't. Game flow was similar in win probability. 




Miami seemed to be in control all game, until a little over 2 minutes remaining. And then they couldn't pull it off. 

An emotional narrative would be that they "choked". I don't like emotional narratives. I view these things as a lot more luck/chance than anything. I view winning 9 of 9 that were tight down the stretch as lucky, as the odds given the strength of the team would be closer to 5 or 6 of 9. And then for them to lose 1 of 1 down the stretch as unlucky, given that it's a team they were assigned a 75% win probability over at tipoff, so they should win 3 of 4. Well, this outcome was the other 1 of 4. 

Is going "undefeated in the regular season" a pretty feel good story? Yeah. 

Are the odds against other bubble teams going 31 for 31 against that schedule? Yeah, probably. Because to have greater than 50% odds to go 31 for 31 if each individual game was equal probability would require those games to be over 97% win probability, closer to 98%. (.98 ^ 31 = 53.5%)

However, over a lot of seasons there are going to be teams that do it. Going undefeated against a weak regular season schedule is a statistical anomaly, not an amazing accomplishment. And based on being now 64th in NET after the loss, it also doesn't appear to be a tournament-worthy resume. 

[medinabuckeye1]

So Lunardi thinks the committee is so spinless that they'll include Miami based on "feels" and ignore the data.  

Here is the math comparing Miami (Lunardi has them not even needing to go to Dayton, getting a #11 seed) and the eight teams closest to the cut-line (last four in, first four out):


Miami is dead last in this group in NET by six spots below the next lowest and 17 spots below the team ahead of them.  Seven of the nine are clustered between 37-47 then Mizzou at 58 then Miami at . . . 64.  

Miami is dead last in this group in Torvik ( @MaximumSam 's favorite math up until it didn't suit his emotional purpose) by 35 spots below the next lowest.  The eight legitimate bubble teams are clustered between 35-52 then there is a gap of 35 spots before we get to Miami.  

Miami is dead last in this group in KenPom by 42 spots.  The eight legitimate bubble teams are clustered between 37-51 then there is a gap of 42 spots before we get to Miami.  

Then we always here that the committee considers Q1 and Q2 wins.  Ok, lets look at this.  @MaximumSam isn't going to like this.  Each of the eight legitimate bubble teams has at least two Q1 wins and none of them have less than six Q1/Q2 wins.  Miami has ZERO Q1 wins and only two Q2 wins.  

Then we always here that avoiding bad losses matters.  Miami has a Q3 loss.  Five of the eight legitimate bubble teams have zero Q3 losses while the other three have a grand combined total of just 4 Q3 losses but remember (see above) that the legitimate bubble teams all have at least one good (Q1) win to offset each of their bad (Q3) loss(es).  Miami does not.  

Finally we get to @MaximumSam 's favorite part.  Miami is "undefeated in Q4 games" at 15-0.  Funny that doesn't look so difficult since the eight legitimate bubble teams are a combined 61-0 in Q4 games so contrary to his emotional bleating no, it actually isn't all that hard nor all that rare to win all your crappy games.  

Just like Miami:  VCU, Mizzou, SMU, Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn, Indiana, and New Mexico were all perfect on the year against Q4 opponents.  The difference is that those eight legitimate bubble teams each also had at least 2 Q1 wins and at least 6 combined Q1/Q2 wins while Miami has ZERO Q1 wins and only 2 Q2 wins.  

Max seems to have trouble understanding logic and reason so, as a public service I'd like to provide some education for you.  As you look at the above chart, watch this educational video:  


https://youtu.be/KTZ_ALU2Cn8?si=zhc9Z5MYq01R19s8

[MaximumSam]

 Going undefeated against a weak regular season schedule is a statistical anomaly, not an amazing accomplishment. 

This is my response to the 2023 Michigan football season

[MaximumSam]

Max seems to have trouble understanding logic and reason so, as a public service I'd like to provide some education for you.  As you look at the above chart, watch this educational video: 

Hey I can at least count. I refer you to this guy to help you understand.

[betarhoalphadelta]

This is my response to the 2023 Michigan football season

Nah. At least half of that season was cheating.

[CatsbyAZ]

Let's hope not. If the committee decides to let in a bunch of crappy mid-majors for emotional reasons the Buckeyes might need upsets today and tomorrow just to get an at-large bid.

Iowa had more to play for than Ohio State and yet the Buckeyes come away with the win, and will tip off Vs Michigan at the top of the hour. Beating Iowa gives Ohio State gives a strong finish to the season, winning four straight when they needed it the most. After losing to Iowa to drop to 17-11, I figured they were outside the bubble. But since then beating Purdue and two other bubble teams (Indiana and Iowa), the Buckeyes are firmly in the Tournament as a mid-range seed (along with UCLA).

Indiana is out and Iowa will be sweating it come Sunday.