2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread

[847badgerfan]

B.R.A.D. and @grillrat love the Badgers. 

I know this.

[FearlessF]

Has anyone checked on BRAD? Not sure how he's holding up...

because of a #7 seed?

[betarhoalphadelta]

Has anyone checked on BRAD? Not sure how he's holding up...

First time since 1987, I think, that Purdue has scored >=90 points in a loss. 

[medinabuckeye1]

That seems unlikely, and the only angle for the case would be that whoever they face in the first round is going to be extremely dreadful.

The chances are there going to win that game, and even if they lose to Ohio State, they’ll be fine.

I definitely agree that chances are that they will win their BTT opener and if they do then they don't need to beat Ohio State to be completely secure.  

However, the different trajectories that Iowa and Ohio State have taken since their game less than two weeks ago.  With that game:

• Iowa moved to 20-8/10-7 and
• Ohio State moved to 17-11/9-8.  

At that point Iowa was a game better in the league and three games better overall but since then the Buckeyes are 3-0 and the Hawkeyes are 0-3.  Some of that was expected.  Like most everyone, I expected Iowa to finish 1-2 with a win at PSU, a home loss to Michigan, and a road loss to Nebraska.  Also, like most everyone, I expected Ohio State to finish 2-1 with a home loss to Purdue followed by a win at PSU and a home win over Indiana.  Ohio State got an extra win (over PU) and Iowa got an extra loss (at PSU).  

Iowa is now #25 in the NET so they are probably secure but their BTT opponent on Wednesday will be either #102 Oregon or #151 Maryland.  Ending on a four-game losing streak that includes a loss to #131 Penn State and a loss to either UMD or Ore wouldn't be a good look.  

That said, Lunardi doesn't even have them among the bubble teams, he has them safely in as a #10 seed.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Lunardi's projections heading into the BTT:

• #1 Michigan
• #2 Michigan State, Illinois
• #3 Purdue, Nebraska
• #6 Wisconsin
• #8 UCLA
• #9 Ohio State
• #10 Iowa

Based on the historical performance of those seeds since expansion to 64 (40 tournaments, 1985-2025 but no 2020) those seeds should produce:

• 6.56 teams in the R32
• 3.78 teams in the S16
• 2.33 teams in the E8
• 1.09 teams in the F4
• 0.59 teams in the NC
• 0.29 NC's

There isn't much bubble action left to talk about.  In prior weeks Ohio State and USC were in the bubble discussion but they have played their way off of it in good and bad ways respectively.  Thus, our only remaining bubble team is Indiana whom Lunardi has as the First Team Out. 

Indiana will open BTT play on Wednesday at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois by taking on the winner of PSU/NU at 630 (EST) on Peacock.  As I see it that is an absolute must-win for the Hoosiers.  If they do win, then they get Purdue at 630 Thursday night on BTN.  That would certainly be interesting and I know we have some Purdue fans here who would absolutely LOVE to see the Boilermakers knock the Hoosiers out of the NCAAT.  Not sure that a loss to Purdue would sink the Hoosiers but it would be close.  If the Hoosiers were to beat both PSU/NU and Purdue then I think they'd be completely secure regardless of the outcome against Nebraska on Friday night and beyond. 

[MrNubbz]

Let's Go
#2 Michigan State, Illinois
#3 Purdue, Nebraska
#6 Wisconsin
#8 UCLA
#9 Ohio State
#10 Iowa

[medinabuckeye1]

Let's Go
#2 Michigan State, Illinois
#3 Purdue, Nebraska
#6 Wisconsin
#8 UCLA
#9 Ohio State
#10 Iowa

I see what you did there and I concur!

[medinabuckeye1]

As an Ohio State fan I don't actually root against my team but they might be better off losing the first round in the BTT.  Here is why:

Lunardi currently has the Buckeyes as a #9 seed.  #9 seeds historically are roughly a coin-flip against #8's in the first round of the NCAAT but then a dreadful one win every 20 attempts in the second round.  

If they move up to a #8 seed that is a marginally better 1 out of 10 in the second round.  

If they fall back to a #10 or #11 their chances in the first round dip somewhat to just under 40% but their chances of making the S16 actually INCREASE to 16-17%.  

The only way their chances would be better is if they got all the way up to a #7 seed.  #7's are .613 in the first round and make the S16 roughly 18% of the time.  The thing is, how far would Ohio State have to go in Chicago to move up to a #7?  I'm thinking they'd need to beat IA/UMD/Ore on Thursday and upset Michigan on Friday and that STILL might not be enough.  

That 8/9 line just makes a S16 appearance a pipedream.  

[CatsbyAZ]

^^^

Ohio State has not made the Tournament since 2022. Take what you can get, and still, the low odds Vs a #1 seed in the 2nd Rnd is a season to be proud of after a three season absence.

[847badgerfan]

https://twitter.com/SteveHelwagen/status/2031075804931612975

[bayareabadger]

Badgers starting center projects to be back by the tournament, maybe this week. Still can’t really believe they won on Saturday without him. 

The best defensive wing on the team might be back at some point too. But after a broken wrist, that might be a second weekend of the tournament pipe dream. 

[ELA]

#6 Furman knocks off #1 ETSU in the SoCon final.

Blah

[bayareabadger]

#6 Furman knocks off #1 ETSU in the SoCon final.

Blah

This one feels a little less bad than some of the other ones considering those teams were kind of close in terms of their overall profiles and such.

[Brutus Buckeye]

The WAC might prevent their #1 seed from participating in their conference tournament over an exit fee.