B1G Bracketology:
Lunardi updated this morning and here is where he projects the B1G teams:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Michigan State, Illinois
- #3 Nebraska, Purdue
- #7 Wisconsin
- #9 Iowa
- #10 UCLA
- #11(play-ins) Indiana, Ohio State
Based on the performance of each seed in the 40 tournaments since expansion to 64 (1885-2025 no 2020) those seeds should accomplish:
- 6.47 first round wins
- 3.73 S16 berths
- 2.29 E8 berths
- 1.09 F4 berths
- 0.56 NCG berths
- 0.28 NCs
As for the bubble watch:
- UCLA has the second-to-last bye
- Ohio State has the third-to-last spot
- Indiana is the last team in
- USC is the fifth team out
Here is where the bubble teams stand and what they have left:
- 20-9/10-8 Iowa hosts Michigan this week and visits Nebraska this weekend. They aren't listed as a bubble team but their SoS is bad, they've lost four of their last six, and they'll be underdogs in both of their remaining regular season games. They have 20 wins already and they are #28 in the NET so they *SHOULD* be ok but if they lose out (including losing their BTT opener) they could be in trouble. That would put them at 20-12/10-10 and add another bad loss (the BTT opener would be against one of the league's bottom-feeders. That still probably gets them in and obviously any additional win (regular season or BTT) seals the deal but 20-12/10-10 with a weak (by B1G standards) SoS and a disastrous finish (2-7) would be close enough to be interesting.
- 19-10/11-7 UCLA hosts UNL this week and visits USC this weekend. IMHO, UCLA needs one more win to get to the tournament. If they lose these two then also lose their BTT opener they'd finish 11-9/19-13 and that still might be enough but it would be really close.
- 18-11/10-8 Ohio State visits Penn State this week and hosts Indiana this weekend. IMHO, tOSU needs two wins or three if they lose both remaining regular season games. That would get them to either 20-12/12-8, 21-12/11-9, or 21-13/10-10. I think any of those would get them in.
- 17-12/8-10 Indiana hosts Minnesota this week and visits Ohio State this weekend. IMHO, IU needs either two regular season wins, one regular season win and three BTT wins, or to at least make it to the B1GCG. That would get them to either 19-13/10-10 or 21-14/9-11 or 22-15/8-12. That last one would be close but probably in with that strong of a finish.
- 18-11/7-11 USC visits UDub this week and hosts UCLA this weekend. I think you can just about stick a fork in them. Their NET ranking is all the way down to #64, they've lost five straight, and their leading scorer suddenly and mysteriously left the program. They went undefeated OOC which is nice but their OOC schedule was atrocious so it doesn't say much. IMHO, they need three straight wins to have a good chance. That (and nothing else) would get them to 21-12/9-11.
IMHO, the top-6 in the league are locks even by
@ELA 's and my literal interpretation of the term "lock". Ie, they would get in even if they lost this week, lost again this weekend, got the worst possible BTT opponent, and lost their BTT opener.
Similarly, the bottom-7 (MN, UDub, RU, NU, OR, UMD, PSU) would need to win the BTT.
SoS rankings per KenPom:
- 5 Michigan
- 9 Purdue
- 10 Illinois
- 16 Maryland
- 18 Michigan State
- 20 Ohio State
- 24 Northwestern
- 25 Oregon
- 28 Wisconsin
- 33 Washington
- 35 USC
- 38 Indiana
- 42 UCLA
- 47 Rutgers
- 48 Penn State
- 57 Minnesota
- 65 Nebraska
- 68 Iowa
I completely understand the weak OOCs played by RU, PSU, MN, and UNL. Those programs typically don't have good teams so they scheduled easy wins, fine. Iowa should schedule better. UCLA and Indiana are inexcusable. They consider themselves to be blue bloods, ok schedule like it then.