Very interesting and impactful games tonight and tomorrow:
- MSU +7.5 at Purdue 8pm tonight, Thursday February 26 on Peacock (really?)
- M -1.5 at Illinois 8pm tomorrow, Friday February 27 on FOX
MSU/PU goes a long way toward determining which of the top-5 does NOT get a double bye. Michigan has already locked up one of the four double-byes as they can do no worse than 16-4. The other three will likely go to three out of IL/PU/UNL/MSU as those teams each have four losses. That said, the loser of this game will thereby get their fifth loss and Illinois is a home dog tomorrow night so they could pick up their fifth loss then. Thus, Wisconsin (11-5) still has a plausible chance but it would probably require them to win out. Additionally, UCLA (11-6) and Iowa (10-7) are still mathematically in the race. Ohio State (9-8) could theoretically tie PU/MSU but they can't tie the winner so the Buckeyes and the nine teams behind them are all mathematically eliminated from earning a double-bye.
The winner of this game will remain in control of their own destiny vis-a-vis a double-bye and have a helpful potential tiebreaker in the H2H win.
Michigan has already clinched at least a share of the B1G title and the MSU/PU loser from Thursday night will be mathematically eliminated from the title race. If the Wolverines win in Champaign that will mathematically eliminate Illinois, Nebraska, and the MSU/PU winner thus clinching an outright title for Michigan.
If Illinois wins then they, Nebraska, and the PU/MSU winner will remain at least mathematically in the hunt for a share of the title but for any of them it would require that they win out AND that Michigan also lose their last two games. Michigan's remaining games after the trip to Illinois are:
- at Iowa on Thursday, March 5
- vs Michigan State on Sunday, March 8.
It is certainly unlikely but then again Carver-Hawkeye is a difficult venue to win in and MSU is a rival so it isn't altogether impossible.
