If Michigan and Iowa both win, the league title is all but mathematically locked up for the Wolverines. At that point the Wolverines would be two games up in the loss column on Illinois and at least three games up in the loss column on all other teams with just four games to go. Michigan also has a home game against Minnesota left on the schedule. Realistically the chances of the Wolverines starting 15-1 then somehow flaming out to finish 16-4 are statistically indistinguishable from zero so for all intents and purposes the Wolverines can lock up the league title tonight.
This happened so, IMHO, you can pencil them in as league champions. Mathematically there is still a race but the chances are pretty slim for anyone not wearing Maize and Blue. Here are all the teams still mathematically in the race with their remaining games:
- 15-1 Michigan: vs Dook in DC 2/21, vs MN 2/24, @IL 2/27, @IA 3/5, vsMSU 3/8
- 12-3 Illinois: @USC 2/18, @UCLA 2/21, vsM 2/27, vsOre 3/3, @UMD 3/8
- 11-4 Purdue: vsIU 2/20, vsMSU 2/26, @tOSU 3/1, @NU 3/4, vsUW 3/7
- 11-4 Nebraska: vsPSU 2/21, vsUMD 2/25, @USC 2/28, @UCLA 3/3, vsIA 3/8
- 11-4 Michigan State: vstOSU 2/22, @PU, 2/26, @IU 3/1, vsRU 3/5, @M 3/8
- 10-5 Wisconsin: vsIA 2/22, @Ore 2/25, @UDub 2/28, vsUMD 3/4, @PU 3/7
Wisconsin is only alive for a share of the title but that would require them winning out AND Michigan losing out so I think we can more-or-less write off that possibility.
PU, UNL, and MSU are down 3.5 games with 4 (for M) or 5 (for them) to play. They can each only afford a combined total of one loss or win by Michigan. They are pretty much cooked. MSU has the toughest remaining slate with trips to both West Lafayette AND Ann Arbor left. Nebraska is, IMHO, the most likely to win out as they have three home games and a two-game road-trip to SoCal but they'd still need Michigan to lose at least three league games. Purdue is in the middle. Their schedule isn't as easy as Nebraska's but it isn't as tough as MSU's.
Illinois is the only one with a punchers chance to catch the Wolverines. Winning out would include handing the Wolverines their second league loss and put the Illini at 17-3 when the season ends so they'd only need Michigan to lose one other game. Note that Illinois and Michigan only play once this year so if the Illini do catch the Wolverines, the Illini will have the tiebreaker (unless Michigan somehow beats Illinois but loses all the rest of their games and they both get to 16-4 that way).
If the BTT started right now this is what I *THINK* the seeds would be:
- 15-1 Michigan
- 12-3 Illinois
- 11-4 Purdue (wins 3-way tie with UNL and MSU based on 1-0 H2H2H (beat UNL) pending upcoming game against MSU)
- 11-4 Nebraska (Second in 3-way tie with PU and MSU based on 1-1 H2H2H(beat MSU, lost to PU))
- 11-4 Michigan State (last in 3-way tie with PU and UNL based on 0-1 H2H2H (lost to UNL) pending upcoming game against PU
- 10-5 Wisconsin
- 9-6 Iowa (ties tOSU in 3-way tie with tOSU and UCLA with 1-0 H2H2H (beat UCLA) then beats UCLA based on win over UNL, pending game against tOSU)
- 9-6 Ohio State (ties IA in 3-way tie with IA and UCLA with 1-0 H2H2H (beat UCLA) then loses to UCLA based on record against UNL, pending game against IA)
- 9-6 UCLA (loses 3-way tie with IA and tOSU based on 0-2 H2H2H)
- 8-7 Indiana
- 7-7 USC
- 5-10 Washington (wins tie with MN based on H2H win)
- 5-10 Minnesota
- 4-11 Rutgers
- 3-12 Maryland
- 3-13 Northwestern
- 2-13 Oregon
- 2-14 Penn State (loses 3-way tie with NU and Ore based on H2H2H (lost to both)
Thus the BTT games at the United Center in Chicago, IL would be:
Tuesday, March 10, Peacock:
- #15 Maryland vs #18 Penn State, 730pm
- #16 Northwestern vs #17 Oregon, 5pm
Wednesday, March 11 BTN:
- #9 UCLA vs NU/ORE, noon Peacock
- #10 Indiana vs UMD/PSU, 630pm BTN
- #11 USC vs #14 Rutgers, 9pm BTN
- #12 Washington vs #13 Minnesota, 230pm Peacock
Thursday, March 12 BTN:
- #5 Michigan State vs USC/RU 630pm
- #6 Wisconsin vs USC/RU, 9pm
- #7 Iowa vs IU/UMD/PSU, 630pm
- #8 Ohio State vs UCLA/NU/ORE, noon
Friday, March 13 BTN:
- #1 Michigan vs tOSU/UCLA/NU/ORE, noon
- #2 Illinois vs IA/IU/UMD/PSU, 630
- #3 Purdue vs UW/USC/RU, 9pm
- #4 Nebraska vs MSU/USC/RU, 230pm
Saturday, March 14 CBS:
- M/tOSU/UCLA/NU/Ore vs UNL/MSU/USC/RU, 2pm
- IL/IA/IU/UMD/PSU vs PU/UW/USC/RU 430pm
Sunday, March 15 CBS:
- M/tOSU/UCLA/NU/Ore/UNL/MSU/USC/RU vs IL/IA/IU/UMD/PSU/PU/UW/USC/RU 330pm
