2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

They are very 3 point dependent.  Gives them a very high ceiling,. amd low floor. 

Combine that with the fact that Brad Underwood has loaded his roster up with one and done Euros, who are also very erratic

[grillrat]

[FearlessF]

Can anyone explain Wisconsin?

can you explain 1st half Nebraska and 2nd half Nebraska?

[ELA]

Pair of upsets last night.  Green means +1, Red means -1

• Illinois (17-3) 26-5
• Michigan (17-3) 27-4
• Nebraska (17-3) 27-3
• Purdue (16-4) 26-5
• Michigan State (14-6) 24-7 (-2)
• Wisconsin (13-7) 21-10
• Iowa (12-8) 22-9
• UCLA (12-8) 20-11
• Washington (11-9) 19-12
• Ohio State (11-9) 19-12
• Indiana (10-10) 19-12
• USC (10-10) 21-10
• Minnesota (6-14) 13-18
• Rutgers (4-16) 11-20
• Northwestern (4-16) 12-19
• Oregon (3-17) 10-24
• Maryland (3-17) 11-21
• Penn State (2-18) 11-20

1 - Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska
2 - Michigan State, Purdue
3 - Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Indiana, Ohio State, Washington
5 - Minnesota, USC
6 - Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers

[bayareabadger]

Can anyone explain Wisconsin?

They now have road wins in both Ann Arbor (who was a whore) and Champagne-Urbana. Those, along with Nebraska's win in Champagne-Urbana are the three best wins all year.

That same Wisconsin team lost in Bloomington, lost AT HOME to USC, and got run out of the gym at both BYU and Nebraska.

It seems like "good Wisconsin" is a top-5 team nationally while "bad Wisconsin" isn't top-10 . . . in the B1G.

That was a fun game!

They’re a bit inconsistent and pretty shooting reliant. They also can fight like hell and keep turnovers down.

They got outshot by Illinois, but grabbed some timely turnovers, over achieved on the offensive glass, hit some key shots and benefited from a rough free-throw shooting night from the home team.

(I also think USC is better than people give them credit for. IU was just a good team at home that UW probably should’ve lost earlier. And they’ve just gotten on track much better than in the first half of the year, plus when Neb and BYU get going, it’s a problem)

[847badgerfan]

I went to a Queen tribute show last night. It was really good. Missed the game. Oh well.

[medinabuckeye1]

In theory Ohio State could lose tonight and still make the Tournament but in practice I see tonight's game for the Buckeyes as awfully close to a 'must win'.  

The Buckeyes are currently 15-8/7-6 and host USC tonight as 7.5 point favorites.  I see this as close to a must win because after this the Buckeyes have a five game stretch where 0-5 is a distinct possibility:

• vs #15 Virginia in Nashville on Saturday
• vs Wisconsin* 2/17
• at Michigan State 2/22
• at Iowa 2/25
• vs #13 Purdue 3/1

A loss tonight would create the first losing streak of the season for the Buckeyes (they lost at home to Michigan on Sunday) and that two-game losing streak could EASILY balloon to a seven game losing streak and a 15-13/7-10 record.  

How I see it for the Buckeyes:

• They have to win tonight to get to 16-8/8-6
• If they can then win just one of those next five that gets them to either 17-12/9-9 or 17-12/8-10
• Win the last two (at PSU, vs IU) to finish either 19-12/11-9 or 19-12/10-10

*Wisconsin:
Per the above discussion I just don't know what to expect when the Badgers roll into Columbus on February 17.  If they show up with the team that took down Michigan in Ann Arbor and Illinois in Champagne-Urbana then they'll probably run the Buckeyes out of the gym.  Alternatively, if they show up with the team that got curb-stomped by BYU and Nebraska and lost at home to USC then Ohio State will probably run the Badgers out of the gym.  

[bayareabadger]

In theory Ohio State could lose tonight and still make the Tournament but in practice I see tonight's game for the Buckeyes as awfully close to a 'must win'. 

The Buckeyes are currently 15-8/7-6 and host USC tonight as 7.5 point favorites.  I see this as close to a must win because after this the Buckeyes have a five game stretch where 0-5 is a distinct possibility:

• vs #15 Virginia in Nashville on Saturday
• vs Wisconsin* 2/17
• at Michigan State 2/22
• at Iowa 2/25
• vs #13 Purdue 3/1

A loss tonight would create the first losing streak of the season for the Buckeyes (they lost at home to Michigan on Sunday) and that two-game losing streak could EASILY balloon to a seven game losing streak and a 15-13/7-10 record. 

How I see it for the Buckeyes:

• They have to win tonight to get to 16-8/8-6
• If they can then win just one of those next five that gets them to either 17-12/9-9 or 17-12/8-10
• Win the last two (at PSU, vs IU) to finish either 19-12/11-9 or 19-12/10-10

*Wisconsin:
Per the above discussion I just don't know what to expect when the Badgers roll into Columbus on February 17.  If they show up with the team that took down Michigan in Ann Arbor and Illinois in Champagne-Urbana then they'll probably run the Buckeyes out of the gym.  Alternatively, if they show up with the team that got curb-stomped by BYU and Nebraska and lost at home to USC then Ohio State will probably run the Badgers out of the gym. 

The Nebraska BYU version seems pretty unlikely at this point. Not that they couldn’t get run out of the gym, but Ohio State would just have to play a really good offense, like those teams did.

Thats like when Holtmann teams had a ln in-season downturn, looking back to when they were good.

One key would be two, if you get Wisconsin down, to keep them there. I think they’ve trailed by double digits in almost every Big Ten game this year, other than Penn State and Ohio State? so getting that lead and pushing it would likely be key.

That trip to Columbus is statistically the hardest game in the next six for Wisconsin. Opportunity ahead.

[medinabuckeye1]

The three-loss teams all have hope but they are going to need to get really hot AND get some help.  

Michigan is obviously in the driver's seat at 12-1.  They have a two-game lead in the loss column but they also have to face three of the four 3-loss teams and the only remaining game among the three-loss teams is MSU at PU on 2/26.  That is to say that of the top-5 teams, Michigan has distinctly the toughest remaining schedule.  

League Title Race:
Michigan is 12-1/22-1.  Their toughest remaining games are:

• at Purdue on 2/17
• at Illinois on 2/27
• at Iowa on 3/5
• vs MSU on 3/8

Nebraska is 10-3/21-3.  They don't get a shot at Michigan so they need a lot of help but they probably have the easiest remaining schedule.  They play Iowa twice and they have a West Coast road swing to USC and UCLA but their other remining games are against three of the worst teams in the league (NU, PSU, UMD).  

Illinois is 11-3/20-5.  They get Michigan at home and other than that the only challenge remaining is a west coast road swing to USC and UCLA.  Their other three remaining games are IU at home, Oregon at home, and at Maryland.  

Purdue is 10-3/20-4 and I'm listing them before MSU because they host MSU but Purdue's remaining schedule is tricky.  They host Michigan (2/17) and Michigan State (2/26) and there are some definite let-down possibilities around those even if they win the big ones.  They are in Iowa City this weekend and the Hawkeyes are good enough that the Boilermakers can't look ahead to the showdown with Michigan.  Then they have a home game with Indiana tucked between the two Michigan schools and if they win all four of those the next game is in Columbus.  Now my Buckeyes aren't a very good team but if Purdue comes in exhausted after pouring their energies into beating Iowa, Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan State in consecutive games that creates a very real possibility of an upset.  Even if they get through all of that then win in Evanston they still finish the season at home against Wisconsin and we know what Wisconsin did on the road to Michigan and Illinois so that game is far from a given.  

Michigan State is 10-3/20-4 but they have, IMHO, the toughest remaining schedule.  Four of their seven remaining games are on the road and none of them are easy (UW on 2/13, PU on 2/26, IU on 3/1, and M on 3/8).  You know it is rough when your easiest remaining road game is in Assembly Hall.  Even their home games aren't THAT easy.  They do have Rutgers (3/5) and they are terrible but the other two home games are UCLA and Ohio State.  UCLA is pretty good and Ohio State is not terrible.  

[medinabuckeye1]

One key would be two, if you get Wisconsin down, to keep them there. I think they’ve trailed by double digits in almost every Big Ten game this year, other than Penn State and Ohio State? so getting that lead and pushing it would likely be key.

I don't know about PSU but Wisconsin actually DID trail Ohio State by double-digits.  I can understand your forgetting it because it was VERY brief and VERY early in the game and had no bearing on how the game played out:

The two teams started out cold and it was 4-2 Buckeyes almost four minutes into the game but then Ohio State got hot and went on an 11-2 run to open up a 15-4 lead that disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared.  

[bayareabadger]

I don't know about PSU but Wisconsin actually DID trail Ohio State by double-digits.  I can understand your forgetting it because it was VERY brief and VERY early in the game and had no bearing on how the game played out:

The two teams started out cold and it was 4-2 Buckeyes almost four minutes into the game but then Ohio State got hot and went on an 11-2 run to open up a 15-4 lead that disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared. 

Ok. Then since the start of the calendar year, UW has trailed by double digits in eight of 11 games. They won five of those, with the losses being:

-Blowout at Purdue
-Rallied at IU, blew 4-point leads in last minute of regulation and OT to lose by 1
-Rallied vs USC To go up by 12 with about 12 to go, and lost by 2

The games where they didn’t trail were blowouts or Rutgers and PSU, plus building a big lead early on UCLA and holding onto it. Been quite a year.

[betarhoalphadelta]

I've only read the recap of the Purdue @ Nebraska game. 

But it sounds like "good Purdue" showed up for about 25 minutes, then became "bad Purdue" to allow Nebraska to decimate a massive lead and force OT, and then gritted out an OT road win. Purdue fell in love with the 3 based on early hot shooting, and finished 13-46 (28%). They got the Nebraska big into foul trouble and then didn't throw the ball in the paint. Out of 76 shots taken, only 15 of them came from the bigs (TKR/Cluff/Jacobsen).

That said, a win is a win, even if they followed an ugly home win vs Oregon with a Jekyll & Hyde road win at Nebraska.

I think Jekyll and Hyde is a good descriptor of this team, though. When they're clicking, they're insanely good. But they can go through stretches of bad basketball, uncharacteristic of a senior-dominated team of non-transfers that should have decent chemistry, that I can't explain. 

All I can hope is that maybe some of the bad stretches were explained by injury. As I mentioned a while back, Braden seems to have been dealing with some leg issues and TKR with perhaps hip/back issues... And that they get enough time to be recovered by the BTT and NCAAT. Because at this point, going deep in those is pretty much the goal. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I was curious about the concept of "dependence on the three" so I made up this table:


As I see it, there are four clusters:

• UNL, IL, UW, and IU are heavily dependent on the 3 (38%+ of their points)
• UMD, MN, Ore, and PU are moderately dependent on the 3 (33-35.25% of points)
• IA, M, tOSU, UCLA, PSU, RU, and MSU are neutral (28.44-31.22% of points)
• UDub, NU, and USC apparently haven't been informed that long-range shots are worth an extra point.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

I was curious about the concept of "dependence on the three" so I made up this table:


As I see it, there are four clusters:

• UNL, IL, UW, and IU are heavily dependent on the 3 (38%+ of their points)
• UMD, MN, Ore, and PU are moderately dependent on the 3 (33-35.25% of points)
• IA, M, tOSU, UCLA, PSU, RU, and MSU are neutral (28.44-31.22% of points)
• UDub, NU, and USC apparently haven't been informed that long-range shots are worth an extra point. 

Agreed. And even though I highlighted it in my post about the Purdue / Northwestern game, I didn't mean to imply that Purdue is a 3-dependent team.

We're not as post-heavy as we were with Edey, but we still have two decent centers and a forward that basically only plays (scoring-wise) inside the arc.  

And Purdue, for better or worse, is actually one of the few teams IMHO that is still taking a fair number of mid-range two-pointers, and NOT having that be a disadvantage. The analytics may not say it's a great shot, but that's only if your shooting percentage from that range is too low... I think Purdue takes those shots and makes enough of them to make it worthwhile. (Having strong offensive rebounding helps too lol.)