1 - Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska
2 - Purdue
3 - Indiana, Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin
4 - Ohio State, Washington
5 - USC
6 - Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon
7 - Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
Ohio State is now 14-7/6-5. If I'm reading your tiers right you have:
- at UMD, W
- vs M, L
- vs USC, W
- vs UVA (Nashville), L
- vs UW, W
- at MSU, L
- at Iowa, L
- vs PU, L
- at PSU, W
- vs IU, W
That gets them to 19-12/11-9.
Per Torvik, their remaining games from most likely win to most likely loss are:
- at UMD, 73%
- vs USC, 72%
- at PSU, 72%
- vs UW, 61%
- vs IU, 50%
- vs PU, 33%
- vs UVA (Nashville), 31%
- at Iowa, 20%
- vs M, 19%
- at MSU, 15%
He projects them to finish 18-13/10-10.
My best guess remains (if anyone has differing thoughts, please chime in):
- 20-11 or better is absolutely in regardless of BTT.
- 19-12 is almost certainly in but might fall out with a dreadful opening loss in the BTT and/or a strong bubble.
- 18-13 would likely require AT LEAST one BTT win.
- 17-14 would be out unless they went on an impressive run in the BTT.
- 16-15 or worse would be out unless they win the BTT to get the auto-bid.
The good news:
With four projected wins and six projected losses the Buckeyes have more chances for a positive upset than a negative one. Picking up an extra win improves things dramatically.
The bad news:
Three of the projected losses are more-or-less hopeless. The chances of Ohio State beating Michigan or pulling off an upset in Carver-Hawkeye or the Breslin Center are near zero. Conversely, none of the projected wins are complete gimmies. Maryland and Penn State have been awful but those games are on the road. USC, UW, and IU are games that the Buckeyes *should* win at home but they could certainly lose. Purdue at home and Virginia in Nashville would be surprising upsets if the Buckeyes managed to pull off a win in either of those.
What remains is a pretty narrow path for the Buckeyes. They more-or-less have to win the four easiest. That gets them squarely on the bubble and a win in one of the other six probably locks up a bid. If they lose one of the four easiest then the season-ending home game against IU becomes a must-win.
