2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread

[FearlessF]

knowing Huskers fans as I do............. ratings will be pretty good for this afternoon's game

[betarhoalphadelta]

Nebrasketball is ranked? 

[FearlessF]

an undefeated - crazy daze!

[ELA]

This team is not nearly good enough to turn the ball over like that.

Conference road game caveat and all, that is about the worst road environment in the conference.  Thats a loss against any other Big Ten team on the road, and probably 10 teams at home

[FearlessF]

Holy Shit!!!
Didn't think this could happen
big win on the road.  This team might be pretty good.

[medinabuckeye1]

Buckeyes pulled one out by the skin of their teeth

[MaximumSam]

Buckeyes pulled one out by the skin of their teeth

The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers

[bayareabadger]

The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers

I really wish that kid had been around before NIL.

[medinabuckeye1]

The Buckeyes are a Bruce Thornton away from being Rutgers

Honestly, are they even Rutgers without him?  This team is . . . not good.  

The win in Evanston gives me *SOME* hope for a Tournament bid but the road loss to Pitt shows that most road games are at best a toss-up and the home loss to an Illinois team that Nebraska beat in Champaign shows that the Buckeyes are a HUGE step below the top of the league.  

They are currently 8-2/1-1 with 18 league games and 3 OOC games remaining.  If you figure 12 losses (including BTT) is probably in, then they have nine to give but I'm having trouble seeing that happen.  

First the three OOC games:

• Grambling at home they should obviously win (if not the rest of this is moot)
• #14 UNC in ATL is a likely loss.  
• #24 UVA in Music City is a likely loss.  

That would get them to 9-4/1-1 with 18 league games left and only seven losses to give.  

League home games:

• #23 UNL is a likely loss
• #25 UCLA is a likely loss  
• Minnesota should be a win
• Penn State should be a win
• #2 Michigan is a likely loss
• USC is close to a toss-up
• UW is close to a toss-up
• #6 PU is a likely loss
• IU should be a win 

I get 5-4 assuming they split the USC/UW games and they are obviously going to lose more than three league road games.  

League road games:

• Rutgers they should win
• Oregon they should win
• UDub is a toss-up
• #2 Michigan is a near-certain loss
• Wisconsin is a likely loss
• Maryland they should win
• #9 MSU is a near-certain loss
• Iowa is a likely loss
• Penn State they should win

I get call it 4-5.  

So that adds up to 18-13/10-10 heading into the BTT.  Last year they were 17-14, lost their BTT opener, and missed the NCAA.  I'm looking at the schedule and getting one game better this year.  They'd probably need at least one win in the BTT, maybe more.  

The bubble really is a knife edge.  If you take one or two of the games that I have as a "should be a win" and make them losses, they'll go to the BTT needing to win it.  Conversely, if you take one or two of the games that I have as a "likely loss" and make them wins, they'll head to the BTT securely in the NCAA and only playing for seeding.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins? 

[medinabuckeye1]

What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins?

IMHO, it is mostly irrelevant. I think they can trade bad losses for good wins all day long.

[medinabuckeye1]

What happens if they win all the likely losses, and lose all the likely wins?

This is obviously a ridiculous question because Ohio State isn't realistically going to win all the tough games and lose all the easy ones but it does relate to a point that I do think is important.  Ohio State is 8-2/1-1 with 21 games remaining so here are those games roughly sorted (using @ELA 's composite rankings) into what I *THINK* is easiest/most likely win (#1) to toughest/most likely loss (#21):

• vs nr Grambling on 12/23
• vs #126 Minnesota on 1/20
• at #143 Rutgers on 1/2
• vs #83 Penn State on 1/26
• at #102 Maryland on 2/5
• at #104 Oregon on 1/8
• at #83 Penn State on 3/4
• at #63 Washington on 1/11
• vs #34 UCLA on 1/17
• vs #33 Indiana on 3/7
• vs #32 Wisconsin on 2/17
• vs #29 USC on 2/11
• vs #? UVA in Nashville on 2/14
• at #32 Wisconsin on 1/31
• at #27 Iowa on 2/25
• vs #22 Nebraska on 1/5
• vs #15 UNC in ATL on 12/20
• vs #6 Purdue on 3/1
• vs #1 Michigan on 2/8
• at #9 MSU on 2/22
• at #1 Michigan on 1/23

IMHO, 19-12 is basically knife edge.  Probably in but might fall out with a bad BTT loss or a strong bubble.  20-11 is almost certainly in and 18-13 would require an unlikely run in the BTT.  So to get to 19-11 by winning the easiest games they would have to win #1-11 which also presumes that they would lose #12-21.  

Per @Brutus Buckeye 's ridiculous example, suppose that Ohio State lost #1-10 and somehow won #11-21.  We can't really say WHAT the committee would do with that because I don't think there has ever been a resume that goofy.  Those bottom 11 would be some INCREDIBLY good wins, but losing at home to Grambling, Minnesota, and Penn State would also be REALLY bad and I would guess that the committee would just basically offset the bad losses against the good wins and put the Buckeyes in.  

When I said that I thought the Buckeyes could probably trade bad wins for good losses all day long I was thinking more of the usual case.  Ie, if the Buckeyes went 11-10 over these 21 games by winning #1-9 but then lost at home to Indiana and Wisconsin but then won at home over USC and in Nashville over UVA and lost #14-21 that is 11-10, they would finish 19-12 and I think they'd be right on the edge and in no different of a situation than they would be if they had won the home games against IU and UW but lost to USC and UVA.  Ie, I think that trading a minor upset win for a minor upset loss is a non-issue.  I also think that trading a MAJOR upset loss for a MAJOR upset win (ie if the Buckeyes lost at home to Grambling but won in Ann Arbor or East Lansing) is also basically a non-issue.  They just offset.  

However, I do NOT think that all upsets are equal.  I think that trading MAJOR upset wins for minor upset losses is good and that trading MAJOR upset losses for minor upset wins is bad.  Ie:

• If the Buckeyes lost at home to Grambling, won vs USC, and otherwise won the easiest and lost to toughest to get to 19-12 that would be worse than just winning the easiest 11 because the loss to Grambling would be BAD.  
• If the Buckeyes won at Michigan, lost at home to USC and otherwise won the easiest and lost the toughest to get to 19-12 that would be better than just winning the easiest 11 because the win at Michigan would be a REALLY good win.  

[medinabuckeye1]

• vs nr Grambling on 12/23
• vs #126 Minnesota on 1/20
• at #143 Rutgers on 1/2
• vs #83 Penn State on 1/26
• at #102 Maryland on 2/5
• at #104 Oregon on 1/8
  
• at #83 Penn State on 3/4
• at #63 Washington on 1/11
• vs #34 UCLA on 1/17
• vs #33 Indiana on 3/7
• vs #32 Wisconsin on 2/17
• vs #29 USC on 2/11
• vs #? UVA in Nashville on 2/14
  
• at #32 Wisconsin on 1/31
• at #27 Iowa on 2/25
• vs #22 Nebraska on 1/5
• vs #15 UNC in ATL on 12/20
• vs #6 Purdue on 3/1
• vs #1 Michigan on 2/8
• at #9 MSU on 2/22
• at #1 Michigan on 1/23

From my view, the Buckeyes' season hinges on the seven games from #7-13:

• #1-6 they definitely should win.  They are PSU at home and a bunch of teams with triple-digit rankings.  
• #14-21 would take very unlikely upsets to win.  Wisconsin and Iowa do NOT appear to be all that good but they are still probably better than Ohio State and Carver-Hawkeye and the Kohl Center are tough especially when the home team is better than you.  The rest of the teams are just a lot better than Ohio State, particularly the four games against #1 Michigan, #6 Purdue, and #9 MSU.  

That leaves the seven games from #7-13.  There are road games against PSU and UDub.  Ohio State is pretty clearly better than those teams but road games are tough.  Then there are home games against relative equals (UCLA, IU, UW, USC) and a neutral site game against UVA.  As I see it, the Buckeyes need to go 5-2 in this group to end up 19-12 overall.  

[SuperMario]

Michigan on an interesting stretch. Beating USC and they could be 17-0 heading into Indiana. The fact that Maryland took 27 three point shots, shot 52% from 3 and Michigan still won by 18 is crazy. They are LOADED as a team.

Also, David Coit from Maryland is unreal when he's feeling it.