Getting a little deeper into tiebreakers:
#1 seed is clinched, Michigan.
#2 seed is MSU if they win. If MSU loses then they would end up in a tie with either UNL or IL or both if either/both of them win. MSU beat IL and lost to UNL so they would win a tie with IL and lose a tie with UNL. In the event of a three way tie (likely) then the H2H2H is:
- 2-1 Nebraska: Beat MSU, split with IL.
- 1-1 Michigan State: Beat Illinois, lost to UNL.
- 1-2 Illinois: Split with UNL, lost to MSU.
Thus, Illinois is eliminated from contention for the #2 seed and would get the #3 seed ONLY if they win and UNL loses. Also, MSU has clinched a top-3 seed because they would beat IL in any tie.
#3 seed is most likely MSU but would be Nebraska if MSU beats Michigan. It could be Illinois but only if IL wins and UNL loses.
#4 seed Illinois is the most likely. However there is an unlikely but mathematically possible other consideration. If Nebraska (vs Iowa) or Illinois (at Maryland) or both were to lose they would fall into a tie with the PU/UW winner. Here is how that shakes out:
- Nebraska: Split with IL, beat UW, lost to PU
- Illinois: Split with UNL, beat PU, lost to UW
- Purdue: Beat UNL, lost to IL
- Wisconsin: Beat IL, lost to UNL
Thus either Nebraska or Illinois *COULD* end up playing on Thursday as either Purdue or Wisconsin *COULD* get the #4 seed but they each need the exact right combination of results to get there.
The PU/UW loser will either be #6 outright (if UCLA loses) or tied for 6/7 with UCLA (if the Bruins win). In the event that UCLA wins, here are their tiebreakers with PU/UW:
- UCLA wins a tie with PU
- UW wins a tie with UCLA
Thus Wisconsin will be no worse than the #6 seed but Purdue could fall to #7 (if they lose and UCLA wins).
I already covered Ohio State but to review:
The Buckeyes are in 8th place and will be the #8 seed unless either:
- They win and UCLA loses. In this case tOSU wins the 7/8 tie with UCLA and gets the #7 seed, or
- They lose and Iowa wins. In this case tOSU loses the 8/9 tie with Iowa and gets the #9 seed.
Iowa wins either of the ties they could mathematically end up in. If they win and tOSU loses then they tie tOSU for 8/9, win that tie and get the #8 seed. If they lose and IU wins then they tie IU for 9/10 but they win that tie and get the #9 seed anyway.
Indiana has clinched the #10 seed because they could tie Iowa but they would lose that tie and they cannot be caught from behind.
Minnesota/Washington/USC: These three are tied for 11/12/13 at 7-12. They can't catch IU nor can the be caught by the teams behind them so collectively they WILL BE the #11, #12, and #13 seeds. Here are their H2H's:
- Washington beat MN once and USC twice so they win any tie.
- USC beat MN and lost twice to UDub so they would lose to Udub and beat MN in any tie.
- Minnesota lost to both UDub and USC so they lose any tie.
Rutgers is 5-14 but they beat NU, beat Oregon, and beat Maryland twice so they win any tie. They will NOT have to play on Tuesday unless they lose (vs PSU) AND NU wins (at MN).
Northwestern is also 5-14 but can't avoid playing on Tuesday unless they win AND RU loses. They come in second in a tie involving RU and win any other tie so they can do no worse than the #15 seed.
Oregon is 4-15 and would lose ties with either RU or NU or both. They would, however, win a tie over UMD. Thus they will be the #16 seed unless they lose (vs Udub) and UMD wins (vs IL). In that case they would be #17.
Maryland is 4-15 and would lose ties with any/all of RU, NU, and OR so they are stuck with the #17 seed unless they win (vs IL) and OR loses (vs Udub). Maryland would win a tie with PSU so they can't fall to #18.
Penn State has clinched the #18 seed because they would lose any tie.
