2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

UW has one.

Isaac Gard | Men's Basketball | Wisconsin Badgers
Isaac Gard | Men's Basketball | Wisconsin Badgers

Scholarship players

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue -11.5 at Northwestern 830 BTN:
Purdue is safely in and Northwestern is hopeless so this is just about seeding for the Boilermakers.  Two weeks ago the Boilermakers were 21-4/11-3 and seriously in the running for a #1 seed.  They've now lost three of four so any talk of a #1 seed is done.  None of the losses were individually all that bad but two (M/MSU) were at home and the third was to a bubble team (tOSU).  Right now they project as a #3 seed.  If their current slump continues they could slide to a #4 but if they finish strong they could get to a #2.  That doesn't make much difference the first weekend but it makes a humongous difference in the S16 and beyond. 

I haven't been able to catch these games, but it just seems like Purdue is not right.

Normally I'd be hoping for at least a strong enough finish to not slip to a 4 seed (so you don't have to face a 1 in the S16), but the way this team is playing, it doesn't matter much. 

I think their ceiling is much higher than their current play, which makes them incredibly dangerous no matter who they face in the NCAAT, but I feel like this team is also the type that wouldn't surprise me to see them get upset in the first weekend. 

[847badgerfan]

Scholarship players

He's on scholarship, but not for hoops.

[medinabuckeye1]

I haven't been able to catch these games, but it just seems like Purdue is not right.

Normally I'd be hoping for at least a strong enough finish to not slip to a 4 seed (so you don't have to face a 1 in the S16), but the way this team is playing, it doesn't matter much.

I think their ceiling is much higher than their current play, which makes them incredibly dangerous no matter who they face in the NCAAT, but I feel like this team is also the type that wouldn't surprise me to see them get upset in the first weekend.

Putting some data to it:
Winning the opener:

• #2 seeds win 93.13% of the time, 149-11
• #3 seeds win 85.63% of the time, 137-23
• #4 seeds win 79.38% of the time, 127-33

Who you face in the second round:

• #2 seeds play #7 62.25% of the time and #10 the other 38.75%
• #3 seeds play #6 61.25% of the time and #11 the other 38.75%
• #4 seeds play #5 64.38% of the time and #12 the other 35.63%

How you fare in the second round:

• #2 seeds who make the second round win 68.5% of the time, 102-47
• #3 seeds who make the second round win 61.3% of the time, 84-53
• #4 seeds who make the second round win 60.6% of the time, 77-50

Cumulatively:

• #2 seeds make the S16 63.75% of the time, 102 of 160
• #3 seeds make the S16 52.5% of the time, 84 of 160
• #4 seeds make the S16 48.13% of the time, 77 of 160

Who you face in the S16:

• #2 seeds play #3 52.5% of the time, #6 29.38% of the time, #11 16.88% of the time and #14 1.25%
• #3 seeds play #2 63.75% of the time, #7 18.13% of the time, #10 15.63% of the time, and #15 2.5%
• #4 seeds play #1 85% of the time, #8 10%, and #9 5%

How you fare in the S16:

• #2 seeds who make the S16 win 70.6% of the time, 72-30
• #3 seeds who make the S16 win 48.8% of the time, 41-43
• #4 seeds who make the S16 win 32.5% of the time, 25-52

Cumulatively:

• #2 seeds make the E8 45% of the time, 72 of 160  
• #3 seeds make the E8 25.63% of the time, 41 of 160
• #4 seeds make the E8 15.63% of the time, 25 of 160

Who you face in the E8:

• #2/3 seeds face #1 66.88% of the time, #4 15.63%, #5 7.5%, #8 5.63%, #9 3.13%, and #12 1.25%.  
• #4 seeds face #2 45% of the time, #3 25.63%, #6 10.63%, #7 6.25%, #10 6.63%, #11 6.25%, and #15 0.63%.  

How you fare in the E8:

• #2 seeds who make the E8 win 43.1% of the time, 31-41
• #3 seeds who make the E8 win 41.5% of the time, 17-24
• #4 seeds who make the E8 win 60% of the time, 15-10.  

Cumulatively:

• #2 seeds make the F4 19.38% of the time, 31 of 160
• #3 seeds make the F4 10.63% of the time, 17 of 160
• #4 seeds make the F4 9.38% of the time, 15 of 160

[betarhoalphadelta]

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/EvanMiya/status/2029247912924922352?s=20

[betarhoalphadelta]

But seriously, I think this is a team that the volatility could make them an odds-defying team--either direction. 

When they're playing well, I think they can take down anyone in the country. Maybe Alabama (currently #16) isn't quite as good as they were billed when Purdue took them down on their own floor, but that was a non-con true road game and a big win. And Purdue absolutely blew the doors off currently #10 Texas Tech. When they're not playing well, I'm not going to say they can lose to "anybody"... But I'd say they can certainly lose to any at-large tournament team, and a few of the tallest midgets. 

[847badgerfan]

Tonight is the type of game Wisconsin loses and then goes on to win at Purdue.

[bayareabadger]

Tonight is the type of game Wisconsin loses and then goes on to win at Purdue.

I dislike this making me think about the end of 2021-22.

[medinabuckeye1]

But seriously, I think this is a team that the volatility could make them an odds-defying team--either direction.

When they're playing well, I think they can take down anyone in the country. Maybe Alabama (currently #16) isn't quite as good as they were billed when Purdue took them down on their own floor, but that was a non-con true road game and a big win. And Purdue absolutely blew the doors off currently #10 Texas Tech. When they're not playing well, I'm not going to say they can lose to "anybody"... But I'd say they can certainly lose to any at-large tournament team, and a few of the tallest midgets.

I think that is fair.  Ohio State isn't "anybody", ie Purdue didn't lose to Penn State but the Buckeyes are a borderline NCAAT team that, if they get in, will be something like a #11 seed so yeah they are the type of team that Purdue could be looking at in the first or second round (seeing tOSU as representative of something like 10-13 seeds and thus PU's opponent in the 1st round if PU draws #4 seed or second if PU draws a #2 or #3 seed).  I also agree on the other end, PU was #1 earlier this season for a reason.  When they are clicking they can play with anybody so yeah, a REALLY tough team to pick in your bracket because they aren't all that unlikely to lose the first weekend or to make the F4.  

Looking at my team the PU game should probably be viewed as an anomaly but even ignoring that, they have been THISCLOSE to a slew of other major wins:

• They were within one possession of Illinois with just over a minute to play.  
• They lost to UNC by a single point on a neutral court in a game they had all but won, grr.  
• They lost to UNL by a single (long range) bucket.  
• They were tied with Michigan in Ann Arbor (who was a whore) with just under nine minutes to go.  
• They were up six on UVA on a neutral court with just over 10 minutes to play then proceeded to score two points over the next nine-and-a-half minutes and they were still within two points with less than 30 seconds to go.  
• They led MSU in East Lansing with just over 10 minutes to play and were still within two points with six-and-a-half.  Then they fell down by 10 but put together a furious rally in the last 90 seconds to make it a one possession game late.  

I feel like as long as my team stays off the 7-10 lines they have a legitimate shot at the S16.  I'm not saying it is likely, just that they have shown that they can play with teams up to about #3 seeds.  They were competitive with Michigan (assumed #1 seed) for about 32 minutes (in AA no less) but I think any of the #1 seeds and probably also the #2 seeds will just wear them down even if they play well.  

[medinabuckeye1]

https://twitter.com/EvanMiya/status/2029247912924922352?s=20

I really like this graph because in the NIL/portal era the coach isn't as responsible for roster quality as he used to be.  If you are spending a lot and the coach just isn't spending it wisely yeah that is on him but if you aren't spending major NIL then you can't blame the coach for not having a Championship caliber squad.  

So in the B1G (eyeballing it) by roster quality:

• Purdue - on the low end of expected outcome
• Michigan - overachieved
• Illinois - on the high end of expected outcome
• Ohio State - slightly underachieved
• UCLA - slightly underachieved
• Oregon - Ewww
• Washington - At least they aren't Oregon!
• Michigan State - overachieved
• Iowa - within the expected range
• Wisconsin - at the high end of expected outcome
• Indiana - within the expected range
• Nebraska - overachieved
• Maryland - slightly underachieved
• Minnesota - within the expected range
• Northwestern - within the expected range
• Rutgers - within the expected range
• USC - overachieved
• Penn State - within the expected range

[Brutus Buckeye]

Bloody Peacock. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Bloody Peacock.

I listened to part of the first half on the radio and apparently we are missing a heck of a show! Buckeyes more than doubling up Penn State, 45-21 at the break.

[betarhoalphadelta]

KenPom says Purdue ORtg is 2 nationally. 

They have 25 points at the half, against the team ranked 86th nationally in DRtg. 

This team is broken.