Tonight's games don't really clinch things mathematically but as a practical matter some things will be decided tonight.
Two games are relevant to the league title:
- Michigan(24-1/14-1) -2.5 at Purdue (21-4/11-3) and
- Nebraska (22-3/11-3) +1.5 at Iowa (18-7/8-6)
If Michigan and Iowa both win, the league title is all but mathematically locked up for the Wolverines. At that point the Wolverines would be two games up in the loss column on Illinois and at least three games up in the loss column on all other teams with just four games to go. Michigan also has a home game against Minnesota left on the schedule. Realistically the chances of the Wolverines starting 15-1 then somehow flaming out to finish 16-4 are statistically indistinguishable from zero so for all intents and purposes the Wolverines can lock up the league title tonight.
OTOH, if Purdue and Nebraska both win that puts Illinois, Purdue, and Nebraska only one game behind the Wolverines in the loss column. Michigan still has to go to Illinois (2/27) so that makes the league title race very interesting down the stretch.
According to Lunardi the B1G currently has three bubble teams (bubble here is defined as within +/-8 spots of the cut line and thus the bubble consists of the last four byes, the last four in, the first four out, and the next four out):
- USC - last bye
- UCLA - first play-in
- tOSU - second team out
USC isn't playing tonight but UCLA and Ohio State are so their games are impactful to the bubble status:
UCLA is at Michigan State as an 8.5 point dog. I have trouble imagining UCLA winning that game but MSU has lost three of their last four so maybe? Winning in East Lansing would go a long way toward locking up a bid for the Bruins.
Ohio State is a 1.5 point favorite at home over Wisconsin and, IMHO, the Buckeyes are cooked if they lose this. Mathematically the Buckeyes would still be alive with a loss but their next three are @MSU, @IA, vPU and they are coming off of an OOC loss to UVA over the weekend. If the Buckeyes lose this it likely spirals into a 5-game losing streak and Ohio State's record would drop to 16-13/8-10. Then even if they won their last two (@PSU, vIU) they'd still finish the regular season at 18-13/10-10 and probably needing a couple wins in Chicago.
The other side of things in those last two games is interesting as well. UW and MSU are each 10-4. If they both lose they drop into a tie with UCLA at 10-5 only a game ahead of tOSU and 1.5 games ahead of Iowa. If they both win they could potentially move into a tie with Purdue and Nebraska for third place in the league at 11-4.
