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Topic: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1050 on: Today at 02:20:58 PM »
First, as I said above I don't care how their schedule ended up so bad. Not my, the committee's, nor the last team it's problem. I care about data not emotion and although you at least tried to challenge it, the vast weight of the data says no.

Second, Max's and your argument seems to be that they shouldn't be punished for their joke of a schedule because they made a few phone calls and got turned down. If I did care (I don't, see above) my answer would be: "Make more calls."

I don't think it is a dodge at all. They don't have to schedule Duke or Michigan nor even Wisconsin or Ohio State to improve their SoS and thus their rating. Playing two decent mid-majors instead of non DI Trinity Christian and Indiana East would have helped immensely.

The absolute body bag games are also, to me, a backstop against this sorta "we tried" argument because playing not one but two non-DI games isn't "trying".
It is a dodge. If they have a few decent mid-majors, would the tone of these long posts change one iota? Nope. They could've won at OSU and Wisconsin and this convo would still be basically the same. 

Now maybe the coach should've showed up in Columbus, threatened to beat up Diebler or something. But at a certain point, you try to get a team to pay you to play at their place, and they don't. 

Now the bodybags are sort of interesting. You have to fill some kind of home schedule, as this is entertainment product with an in-person element. Those cost money, which you have less of without buy games. So you balance budgets the way that makes sense.

(Mentioning your other comment, it does feel like getting emotional and disdainful about all this weakens the argument. Complaining about this that and the other. A staid, simple argument that gives a bit of grace and acknowledges the asymmetry would make for a pretty short argument. Granted, it's all kind of a boiled down element of your larger vociferous belief that a 64-team tournament itself is in many ways bad) 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1051 on: Today at 02:23:54 PM »

That said I think you are reaching here. WAB and SOR obviously lean MUCH more heavily on record compared to NET/Torvik/KenPom and to me that is just bad data.
  • If you picked based on NET they aren't close.
  • If you picked based on Torvik (Max's favorite previously) they aren't close and wouldn't even be in if we took the best 68!
  • If you picked based on KenPom, same as Torvik.
The issue with using this as a base for data is that no one who is serious thinks they should pick teams like this. Neither Ken Pomery or Bart Torvik think that. And the NCAA built the NET, but clearly doesn't use it like that. 

And argument built on data that's misunderstood is going to run you into trouble and get us farther afield. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1052 on: Today at 02:42:54 PM »
It's weird to just be like, the Badgers will likely lose and I'll watch and shrug. 

UW has made a couple deep runs of late, which were the first two finalist trips since 2017. It didn't feel that long. And it's weird to look through the other ones between.

2018 - Bad Badgers fighting to not end the season, got one win, went tooth and nail with a much better MSU team
2019 - Worse than expected game against Nebraska, smushed by a much better MSU team after a sort of weird finish to the year
2021 - Badgers had been sluggish down the stretch, got pushed badly by a bad PSU team, then lost a close one to Iowa, after a horrendous run in close games. 
2022 - Team dropped the ball in a season finale, with an injury to their star. They caught an uneven MSU team and just lost it late.
2023 - UW had basically played itself off the bubble despite good quad wins, was hoping for some kind of tournament boost. Ate the curb to a bad OSU team to seal the season.

This has less emotional investment than any of those. They beat the team they were supposed to, now they'll bow out and rest up. 

FearlessF

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1053 on: Today at 03:06:12 PM »
I think Fred Hoiberg should make Amare Bynum a nice NIL offer to move back closer to home next season
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1054 on: Today at 03:09:27 PM »
Well, that was fast

SFBadger96

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1055 on: Today at 03:15:41 PM »
That's a lot of missed 3s...

bayareabadger

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1056 on: Today at 03:17:24 PM »
That's a lot of missed 3s...
Should keep shooting them.

Credit to Underwood for this, he has built an absolutely massive team of guys who can score and shoot.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1057 on: Today at 03:35:32 PM »
Rebounding is again a concern.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1058 on: Today at 03:39:37 PM »
End of the half was less crisp than you would’ve liked. But down 6 ain’t the worst. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1059 on: Today at 03:43:54 PM »
Rebounding is again a concern.
Considering Illinois is one of the very best rebounding teams in the country and UW is down is best big, it’s been a bit better than I hoped. 

SFBadger96

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1060 on: Today at 04:39:53 PM »
I was doing a good job of ignoring this thing...now I'm glued to it. Damn.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1061 on: Today at 04:46:44 PM »
Forgive me, but this seems like a very curious distinction.

Doing something statically anomalous in sports is by its nature accomplishing something difficult. You went and did it. A thing that is difficult to do was accomplished.

Now the answer might be that accomplishment doesn’t warrant fringe inclusion in the field, but this feels like it doesn’t make much sense. Michigan being 19-1 in the conference is an anomaly. The way they lost that one was also an anomaly. But both are accomplishments.
That's a good point, but again it doesn't always mean that something rare is necessarily "hard", just that it's statistically unlikely. 

As I mentioned, if you have a 97% win probability in 31 games, you have LESS than a 50% chance (38%) to go undefeated. But if that team plays three separate seasons all with the same probability, the expected number of undefeated seasons is three times 38%, or 1.14 undefeated seasons. Do it 10 times, and you're expecting between 3 and 4 undefeated seasons.

Individual game odds are going to be much lower than 97%, even if you're a fairly decent MAC school playing the Little Sisters of the Poor, but that doesn't mean that going undefeated is "hard" more than it's statistically unlikely.

Think of it this way. Flipping a coin 10 times in a row and it ending up heads 10 times in a row... That should happen roughly 0.1% of the time, or 1 out of 1000 attempts. But if you fill a large college football stadium with 100,000 fans and you have them each try it, you'd expect to get 100 of them to do it. 

Does that mean flipping a coin 10 times in a row and getting heads all 10 times is "hard"? No. Flipping a coin is easy. It takes nearly no skill whatsoever. But we think getting 10 in a row is remarkable because it's rare. 

And BTW... I think everyone is getting hung up on this "in the regular season" stuff. Why should we not include a conference tournament? The NCAAT selection committee doesn't release their brackets until all conferences have completed their conference tournaments. So they clearly think teams should be judged on performance after the "regular season" has concluded. And once you include that, Miami is no longer undefeated. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1062 on: Today at 04:46:57 PM »
Some free basketball in Chicago!

FearlessF

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Re: 2025-2026 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1063 on: Today at 04:51:59 PM »
foolish of the Badgers to not get a better shot at the end of reg

can't just hold the ball until 6 to shoot
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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