I'm usually our tiebreaker guru and we have a new structure and new tiebreakers so I'm going to run through this partially out of curiosity and partially as practice for the real thing.
Per
@ELA 's simulation the standings heading into the final weekend are:
- 8-0/10-1 Michigan: Lost to Texas OOC, beat Oregon, plays tOSU
- 8-0/10-1 Penn State: Lost to WVU OOC, DNP Oregon, plays UMD
- 7-1/10-1 Oregon: Lost to Michigan, DNP PSU, plays UWash
The two-loss teams (tOSU, UNL) are eliminated because they can do no better than 7-2 while M/PSU can do no worse than 8-1.
Michigan:
The Wolverines have clinched a spot in the B1G because they have a H2H win over Oregon. If they lose they'll be 8-1 and they'll either get in with no tiebreaker (if Oregon also loses), beat Oregon on tiebreakers (if Ore and PSU both win), or win the three-way tiebreaker with Ore and PSU.
Penn State:
The Nittany Lions are in with a win. They would also be in with an Oregon loss. It gets tricky if they lose AND Oregon wins. Then PSU and Oregon both finish 8-1. That would be a two way tie for second if M beats tOSU or a three-way tie for first if tOSU beats M. We'll look at those after we discuss Oregon.
Oregon:
The Ducks need a win just to get into the conversation but they also need a PSU loss. A Michigan loss doesn't really help them because the Ducks lost in Ann Arbor. Actually, a Michigan loss *MIGHT* hurt them depending on how you read the H2H tiebreaker.
Potential ties:
M and PSU tie for first place at 9-0 (M beats tOSU, PSU beats UMD):
- H2H: This is not decisive because they didn't play.
- Record against all common conference opponents: This is not decisive because they both beat them all.
- Record against mutual conference opponents with the best record: This is not decisive because they both beat them all.
- Best B1G winning percentage of conference opponents: Michigan wins here EASILY mostly because they play Oregon. Michigan has a six game lead here at 36-37 vs 30-44 and the two teams have five common opponents (tOSU, UWash, USC, IL, MN) so PSU can only possibly gain by four and that isn't enough.
M and PSU tie for first place at 8-1 (tOSU beats M, UMD beats PSU, UWash beats Ore):
M, PSU, and Ore all tie for first place at 8-1 (tOSU beats M, UMD beats PSU, Ore beats UWash):
- I *THINK* M wins because their H2H2H is 1-0, PSU is second with no H2H, and Ore is out with an 0-1 H2H2H.
M and Ore tie for second place at 8-1 (tOSU beats M, PSU beats UMD, Ore beats UWash):
- Michigan wins because they beat Ore H2H.
PSU and Ore tie for second place at 8-1 (M beats tOSU, UMD beats PSU, Ore beats UWash):
- H2H, not decisive because they didn't play.
- Record against all common conference opponents: Oregon would win here because the team that beat PSU (UMD) is a common opponent while the team that beat Oregon (M) is not.
So there you have it. Short version:
- Michigan has already clinched.
- Penn State is in unless they lose AND Michigan wins AND Oregon loses.
- Oregon can only get to the B1GCG if they win and PSU loses and M wins.
